We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
At least Cenkos has the decency to highlight the high discount rate used in arriving at the valuation - but does such a high rate bear examination given the increasingly near term revenues from Fovio? Anyway, whatever ...
https://www.qualcomm.com/company/events/automotive-redefined-technology-showcase
Colin Barnden is right. Only a dunce would want a takeover at this point. Not now surely after that weary trudge through the valley of the shadow of death.
SEE's web of licence deals also make a takeover problematic commercially [as per the ARM comparative]. Why cramp their style with a takeover especially at this point? As far as I can suss it, it looks like the team at SEE are getting the strategy & execution right. The timescale for public recognition & valuation is shortening. Risk, in practice, is reducing as markets come into clear focus.
Incidentally, unlike many, I always admired the secrecy of Paul McGlone & team. Shows serious commercial intent rather than playing to the gallery of a few fair weather PI shareholders. Real marketing is not marketing the shares. It is selling the product to the customer and otherwise guarding the IP and commercial secrets. I think Barnden has said similar.
Colin Barnden is the only one competent to value the SEE business. He is a professional. His reputation depends on knowing what he is talking about. He certainly is thinking far far bigger than the punters on here. In my opinion, he gets it - and most folk here simply don't understand the business they are investing in. No sour grapes since I - at present - am doing well here - it is just how I see it.
Surely the Aviation prospect, of being installed in black boxes, would by itself would make SEE a multi bn $ business.
Again, if you don't think this could be huge - why bother with it??
Incidentally, bravo for Telegram since it has syphoned off some of the nutters - I find it unbearable to read such stuff.
For the last time, Barnden understands the bull case. Cenkos etc - forget it
Hermes didn't buy SEE because it was cheap at 4.1p. Cost and risks of due diligence and the US$20m equals they believe the story.
The current m cap of SEE reflects a huge disc rate on conservative cash flow projections i.e. scepticism.
But what if Hermes are correct i.e. the market SEE is going for will be big and that SEE will be a big player in that / those markets? Then you really have to ignore the current m cap and look instead at just how big this will be.
Let's say for instance that I believed in the story then my prospective valuation would begin at say US$5bn. If that were true, then a peremptory take out at a cheapie price would be some sort of crap outcome.
https://www.ft.com/content/99ea7622-89e2-4ed9-b623-3ab5c413ef3f
https://www.ft.com/content/99ea7622-89e2-4ed9-b623-3ab5c413ef3f
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/u-s-new-car-safety-ratings-are-overdue-for-update?srnd=premium-europe
Assuming Dems win 2nd seat in Georgia, this could be a real catalyst
https://www.ft.com/content/a7b26198-3c88-45e5-ba23-0b7ac726577a
Foxconn is stepping up its push into electric vehicles with a tie-up with Chinese EV maker Byton, as the world’s largest electronics contract maker seeks to replicate its traditional tech dominance in a new market it hopes will bolster squeezed margins.
https://www.ft.com/content/6b1b11ea-b50b-4dd5-802d-475c9731e89a
Why do you want it bought out???
A bit of patience i.e. by perhaps 2024 SEE cd be a multi US$Bn Co. If SEE is taken over now or in the next year that would represent a poor outcome in comparison to SEE making it as a real success. After all, they went through the valley of the shadow of death, slogged in the wilderness for 20 years, and now those long term holders can really get how big this should be from here. So why want an exit?? I have no plans at all to sell - not now. Now I want to enjoy the story coming true and what that means in real money to those who are patient.
If the story is BS then it is over priced. If the story turns out to be true then maybe you have to look at the type of multi Bn $ value that Barnden has mentioned previously. If the yanks pick this up and believe in it then you cd get a very high m cap.
I look at total potential mkt size, % mkt share, GM, risk etc and do a crude NPV.
Net Present Value is the classical model for valuing SEE. What are the projected cash flows over the next 10 years discounted by the disc rate to arrive at a net present value / divided by shares in issue.
So for me, the cash flow projections = the story being true
The discount rate is a big big factor of course. Cenkos use a very high disc rate i.e. risk is high. But if risk reduces as the confidence in the cash flow rises, you get dramatic reratings on SP targets on the same cash flows by reducing the disc rate.
I only invest in something like this [a lot of work] if the rewards are mega. Why bother with this Co if you are only looking for 10p because "you don't want to be greedy"
The founders who created the IP have put their whole working lives into this. They will certainly be thinking success for SEE = US$5bn Co. They will not be looking to sell out before it becomes huge after waiting more than 20 years [incl pre listing research time]