Member Info for schlemiel

''Entire issued share capital to be acquired by Barrick Gold for £9 billion (A$18 billion) following Telfer and O'Callaghan's resource upgrades, combination of cash and shares.

Incredible. I'll be voting for this.

What an end to an amazing story.''

https://x.com/that_stocks_guy

Investing.com - Piper Sandler raised its price target on Tamboran Resources Corporation (NYSE:TBN) to $74 from $41 while maintaining an Overweight rating on the stock. The shares currently trade at $49.89, up 40% over the past week and trading near their 52-week high.

The firm cited two recent transactions in the Beetaloo Basin that value the basin at $2,900 to $5,500 per acre, compared to $400 per acre implied in the current enterprise value. The transactions include a farm-out deal of 10,000 net acres to Daly Waters announced Tuesday.

Last week, INPEX announced it is farming into DWE’s position in the Beetaloo Basin, with an option to further expand its position.

Tamboran Resources is expected to close its acquisition of Falcon in the next couple of weeks. The company anticipates having a farm-out agreement of its own by mid-fiscal year 2026.

Piper Sandler analyst Mark Lear stated: "DWE and INPEX Deals Drive Confidence in Beetaloo; We reiterate our OW rating and raise our PT to $74 (from $41) following two recent transactions in the Beetaloo Basin that values the basin at $2.9-5.5k/acre (vs. $400/acre implied in the current EV), including this morning’s farm-out transaction of 10k net acres to Daly Waters."Despite the bullish analyst outlook, InvestingPro data suggests the stock may be overvalued at current levels. Investors can access 15 additional ProTips and comprehensive analysis through TBN’s Pro Research Report, available exclusively on InvestingPro.

In other recent news, Tamboran Resources Corp announced several significant developments. The company held its Q2 2025 earnings call, highlighting a cash balance of $91 million at the end of the period, suggesting strategic investments are underway to bolster growth. In addition, Tamboran Resources shareholders have approved proposals related to the acquisition of Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. This approval includes issuing 6,537,503 shares of Tamboran common stock to Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. and an additional issuance of up to 147,508 shares for minority holders of Falcon Oil & Gas Australia Limited.

Furthermore, Tamboran Resources has entered into two addendums concerning its Beetaloo Basin gas project in Australia. These agreements, signed with Daly Waters Energy, LP, and other joint venture parties, pertain to the ownership, management, and financing of the joint venture. These recent developments underscore Tamboran Resources’ strategic focus on expanding its gas market presence and enhancing its operational framework.

https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/piper-sandler-raises-tamboran-resources-stock-price-target-on-deals-93CH-4590869

30m @ 42.5% from surface is a geological drilling result typically reported by mining exploration companies to describe a high-grade mineral intercept.

Breakdown of the Result

- 30m (Interval/Length): The drill bit intersected a continuous section of mineralization that is 30 meters long.

- 42.5% (Grade): The average concentration of Calcium Fluoride (also known as the mineral Fluorite or Fluorspar) within that 30-meter section is 42.5%.

- From Surface (Depth): The mineralization begins at the very top of the drill hole (0 meters depth), meaning the ore is located directly under the topsoil or outcrop.

Economic Significance

This specific result is considered exceptionally high-grade for several reasons:

High Purity: Commercial open-pit mining operations for fluorspar typically target grades between 20% and 40%

. A grade of 42.5% exceeds the standard benchmark for viability.

Proximity to Surface: Because the mineralization starts "from surface," the "strip ratio" (the amount of waste rock that must be removed to reach the ore) would be very low, significantly reducing potential mining costs.

Industrial Use: Fluorspar of this quality is a critical raw material for the chemical industry (to produce hydrofluoric acid), steel manufacturing, and aluminum smelting.

As of March 2026, this specific intercept (30m @ 42.5%) was reported as a "record fluorspar intercept" from Hole MM156 at the Monte Muambe project in Mozambique, operated by Altona Rare Earths

Rainbow Rare Earths is pleased to announce that it has agreed, conditional only upon Admission (as defined below), to issue 55,420,773 new ordinary shares in the Company of no par value each ("Ordinary Shares") at a price of 20p per Ordinary Share (the "Subscription Price"), thereby raising gross proceeds of £11.1 million (ca. US$14.6 million) (the "Subscription"). The Subscription Price represents a 6.5% discount to the closing share price of 21.4p per Ordinary Share on 30 March 2026 when the Subscription Price was agreed.

The Ordinary Shares are being issued to new strategic investors, as well as certain existing shareholders. The strategic investors include two US-based single family offices and Traxys Group ("Traxys"), one of the suppliers servicing ''Project Vault'', and one of the largest traders of rare earth products in the West. Project Vault is the US$12 billion strategic fund set up by the US Government for building a strategic critical minerals stockpile.

The gross Subscription proceeds cover the Company's financing requirements beyond the end of Q2 2027. The gross proceeds will allow for the finalisation of the Phalaborwa definitive feasibility study ("DFS") in 2026, the completion of the Uberaba pre-feasibility study ("PFS") in 2027 and for general working capital purposes.

George Bennett, CEO of Rainbow, commented: "We are delighted to have received support from both an existing strategic shareholder and new high quality strategic investors. The support of Traxys, a partner to the US Government's Project Vault and a leading rare earth trader, underpins Rainbow's strategy to supply critical minerals to the US market. All investors see the value of investing in Rainbow and support the Company's vision to become one of the highest margin and lowest cost producers of rare earths. The funds raised will allow Rainbow to complete both the Phalaborwa DFS by the end of 2026 and the Uberaba PFS with our partner, Mosaic."

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/rainbow-rare-earths-RBW/share-news/Rainbow-Rare-Earths-Limited-Subscription-raises-11-1m-from-investors/98178475

3 - At scale, the Beetaloo region is widely considered capable of supplying the east coast gas market for decades, with some industry estimates suggesting multi-decade coverage of forecast shortfalls if development reaches its full potential – and Beetaloo is aiming to be a meaningful long-term contributor to Australia’s energy security.

From a broader perspective, the Beetaloo Basin is increasingly being compared to leading North American shale provinces, with thick, organic-rich Velkerri shale capable of supporting long-life, high-volume production. Continued strong flow test results across multiple operators are steadily validating that thesis, now drawing in new capital and expertise.

Corporate activity is now catching up with the geology.

INPEX’s entry into the basin comes from a tie-up with Daly Waters on leases acquired from Tamboran in a 2025 chequerboard-style restructuring. Daly Waters is the Australian arm of Texas-based Formentera Partners. The move weaves INPEX into a layered ownership mix, where Formentera’s billionaire owner, Bryan Sheffield, brings deep technical pedigree and capital firepower, adding another influential voice to a table stacked with shale heavyweights.

Elsewhere, Tamboran continues to build momentum in the basin. However, its partnership with Falcon Oil and Gas has highlighted both the scale of the prize and the structural juggling required to keep multiple players aligned as development gathers pace.

Santos has also continued to reinforce its presence, highlighting the basin’s ongoing strategic pull and its growing importance to Australia’s tightening east coast gas market.

In contrast, Beetaloo Energy’s clean ownership structure provides optionality its peers may lack. As majors circle, the company is uniquely placed to advance independently towards production or attract a strategic partner at a time when asset scarcity is becoming more apparent.

With technical results continuing to impress, regulatory approvals largely in place and a defined development pathway with infrastructure build underway, the company is not just holding prime ground – it is poised to bridge the gap between exploration success and commercial production.

Extended production testing in 2026 looms as a pivotal catalyst, with the potential to unlock Beetaloo’s assets and further validate the basin as a key hub for Australia’s future gas supply.

As the basin edges closer to commercial reality, the combination of scale, control and momentum could prove difficult for larger players to ignore.

The majors are circling, the ground is heating up and the wells are proving the play. With full control of its prime patch and a clear run to first gas, momentum is building on all fronts. Beetaloo looks to be sitting pretty, right where the action is about to happen.

end

https://www.businessnews.com.au/article/Beetaloo-in-sweet-spot-as-majors-swoop-on-NT-shale-gas-play

2 -

The company’s Carpentaria-5H horizontal well has delivered standout basin-topping results, with a peak gas flow of 11.2 terajoules per day and a 30-day average of 7.1 terajoules per day – among the strongest in the basin to date.

The well continues to show low decline rates as it cleans up, with improving gas-to-water ratios pointing to increasing efficiency over time. Coupled with cleared regulatory hurdles, these outstanding results have set the stage for extended production testing in 2026.

Carpentaria-5H itself is a technical tour de force, featuring a jaw-dropping three-kilometre horizontal section and stimulated across 67 stages – the most extensive stimulation program completed in Australia.

That scale of stimulation, combined with strong early flow rates, is widely seen as a bullish indicator for ultimate recoverable volumes and repeatable, scalable production across the field.

Early resource indications are compelling. Independent estimates point to roughly 10 petajoules of recoverable gas per well location in the Carpentaria area. It has reinforced the technical potential for multi-well development across the broader acreage and highlighted the size of the prize, now attracting major corporate attention.

Meanwhile, broader industry dynamics have shifted decisively in Beetaloo’s favour. Earlier backing from Macquarie with $65 million in finance for R&D and construction, alongside a $28M capital raise, has strengthened its balance sheet, while support from traditional owners for gas sales has helped de-risk the pathway to commercialisation.

Beetaloo Energy managing director Alex Underwood said: “Our strong horizontal well results and 100 per cent ownership position place us in a unique position as activity accelerates across the basin. We are focused on delivering first gas while retaining flexibility to capture the full value of our acreage as industry interest continues to build.”

Crucially, the company has already shifted gears from exploration to full-throttle development mode. Its Carpentaria Pilot project has now got the green light via a final investment decision, locking in a direct route to initial production and cash flow.

The project includes the installation of the gas plant, designed with a capacity of 25 terajoules per day to provide in-field infrastructure for up to 10 additional wells. Civil works are underway and commissioning is targeted for later in the year, with first gas sales expected into the Northern Territory market under an existing supply agreement with the NT Government.

The domestic focus is strikingly strategic. The project will initially supply gas into the local NT grid using existing pipeline infrastructure, with longer-term upside tied to east coast demand as supply tightens.

continued.......

Start - Beetaloo Energy is emerging as a standout in the Northern Territory Beetaloo Basin after global major INPEX farmed into nearby acreage and competitors refined their positions. With 100 per cent ownership, strong flow results and key approvals secured, the company offers a rare unencumbered entry point as corporate interest builds ahead of potential first gas in 2026.

A surge of corporate activity is sweeping across the Northern Territory’s Beetaloo Basin, shining a spotlight on Beetaloo Energy’s 100 per cent-owned position, presiding over more than 28 million acres.

Last week, Japanese giant INPEX confirmed a farm-in of nearby acreage just as Beetaloo is charging towards first gas from one of Australia’s hottest and most prospective unconventional shale plays.

INPEX’s farm-in to Daly Waters Energy’s leases has sharpened attention on the basin, signalling growing international appetite to secure exposure to one of Australia’s most promising onshore shale provinces.

The oil major is joining a parade of players, including Tamboran Resources and Santos, reshuffling and repositioning around what is emerging as a much-needed new domestic gas province. The move underscores the strategic allure of securing a foothold in the basin, where Beetaloo’s clean, unencumbered position shines as a rare and highly attractive entry point.

INPEX’s deal gives it significant exposure to highly prospective acreage in the Beetaloo sub-basin, aligning the company with a broader push by large-cap energy players to secure future domestic gas supply. The transaction reflects a broader trend of corporates sprinting early to claim stakes ahead of commercial development.

While others navigate complex joint venture structures and partner wrangles, including Tamboran’s partnership dynamics with Falcon Oil & Gas, Beetaloo’s 100 per cent ownership is emerging as a defining advantage. With no joint venture chains to hold it back, the company retains complete flexibility and full control over development timelines, funding strategies, commercialisation pathways and the option to entertain potential farm-in discussions.

Operationally, Beetaloo has been blazing the trail, consistently setting the benchmark.

A string of milestones, including successful well stimulation, basin-leading flow rates and final Northern Territory approvals to transition from flare to full gas flow have collectively positioned the project at the forefront of the basin’s march towards production.

continued.......

Interesting today to see US International Development Finance Corporation take a 20% stake in graphite company Syrah Resources also in Mozambique.

https://discoveryalert.com.au/battery-supply-chain-revolution-2026-mineral-control/

''Monte Muambe Mining Ltda seeks a U.S. contractor to execute a pre-feasibility study for the development of its rare earths mining and processing facility in the Moatize District of the Tete Province in northwest Mozambique.

Proposals due by May 4: https://lnkd.in/eEq4agqP

The study will conduct extensive testing to determine optimal extraction and processing methods at the mining site, defining the technical and financial pathways needed to attract funding for full-scale development. The project advances both countries’ strategic priorities: strengthening U.S. supply chain security while supporting Mozambique’s goal of becoming a major player in the global critical minerals market.''

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ustda_mozambique-rareearths-criticalminerals-activity-7444433025364451328-Yajr

Still flushing through those warrants. It's what GGP experienced through 2019 before the price took off...

Value enhancing, value creation. very positive. they're not messing around and progressing at a keen pace.. the flow of news should accelerate over the next few months.

Nm

I see TEE's been suspended. It holds interests at Beetaloo.

Strategic Focus Areas :

- Critical Minerals Strategy : USTDA acts as a "power broker" by providing early-stage capital for critical mineral projects to make them bankable and attractive to U.S. investors, spanning exploration to processing.

USTDA endorsement is what elevates small companies in this space from most other small companies. Evidently USTDA see something extremely viable and worth developing. This project (MM) bankability reduces capital risk, lifts confidence regarding regulatory risk and makes it easier or REE to attract risk capital unlike other small companies in this field.

I'm gonna keep building a position based on drilling results and other developments

The key swing factor

The biggest determinant of Phase 2 valuation is not acreage per se. It is speed to cashflow.

If Phase 1 demonstrates:strong IP rates, improving cost per well, clear pathway to Darwin LNGthen Phase 2 valuation moves rapidly toward the upper end of the range, or beyond.

Bottom line

The INPEX deal implies:floor valuation: ~US$3k–5.5k/acre (early-stage, option value)

Phase 2 likely range: ~US$6k–15k+/acre equivalent

The true value driver is capital committed per working interest, not acreage price.

The most important shift is this: the basin is now being priced as a development system, not an exploration play.And once that shift happens, valuation tends to move quickly, particularly if multiple strategic players are competing for exposure.

BTW I don’t buy the conspiracy theory. TBN is key to unlocking access to capital. No one goes through the pain of achieving a NYSE listing to turn around and take it private within a year. JR was replaced as he was not the right CEO for the next phase.

All very positive.

end

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/general-chatter.6222279/page-2536?get_post=true&direction=previous

a reasonable framework is:

phase 1 / pilot-linked acreage (current inpex deal):~us$3k–5.5k per acre (risk-adjusted, option-based)

phase 2 development acreage (post pilot validation):typically 1.5x–3x uplift in early shale systems once:ip data is validatedspacing is understoodcost curves begin to normalise

that potentially implies: ~us$6k–15k per acre equivalent for phase 2 positioning.

this is still conservative relative to mature us shale (and our triple play, ****genous largely unfaulted shale), but appropriate given:

-infrastructure still developing

- lng integration not yet fully contracted

- jurisdictional and policy risk still present (clownshow)

what this means in practice for tamboran

phase 2 valuation is unlikely to be expressed purely as a per-acre metric. it will be embedded in the farm-out structure, typically via:carried drilling costs, cash consideration, potential offtake or strategic alignment, retained operatorship.

so the real valuation signal will come through how much capital a partner is willing to fund for a given working interest.

how to think about it

if we translate the acreage logic into development terms:

- phase 2 involves hundreds to potentially thousands of wells over time

- each well may cost ~us$10–15m (early estimate range)

- development capital runs into multi-billion dollars

a partner(s) willing to fund a meaningful share of that capital, accept non-operating status, align with lng pathwaywill be implicitly valuing the basin well above the inpex entry point.

role of inpex in setting the floor, not the ceiling

inpex has effectively set a credible floor valuation, validated the core development corridor, reduced perceived market access risk.

but it has not set the phase 2 price.instead, it has:increased the probability that multiple credible bidders will engage.

this is what drives valuation higher. shrewd. very shrewd.

cont.......

If you step back and read the INPEX move not as a standalone acreage deal but as a signal about how sophisticated capital is underwriting the basin, it gives you a useful anchor for thinking about Phase 2 valuation.

At its simplest level, the INPEX–DWE transaction establishes a clearing price for early-stage, pilot-linked acreage of roughly US$3,000–5,500 per acre.

But Phase 2 is not that. Phase 2 sits one step further along the value chain. It is where:

- well performance is observed rather than inferred

- development moves from pilot to repeatable program

- infrastructure is committed or imminent

- market access becomes visible rather than conceptual

In valuation terms, that transition is not linear. It is more like moving from “option value” to “incipient cashflow system.”

What Phase 2 is actually being valued on

For Phase 2, counterparties are not really buying acres. They are underwriting three things:

1.Manufacturing repeatability

Can this be drilled and completed at scale with predictable costs?

2. Path to revenue

How quickly do molecules move from wellhead to sale?

3. Capital efficiency

What is the recycle ratio once development ramps?

The INPEX deal gives comfort on (2) and indirectly (1). That shifts the centre of gravity of valuation.

Implied uplift from Phase 1 to Phase 2

Using the INPEX pricing as a base, the key question is: how does value step up once the pilot transitions into development?

cont.......

Formentera Partners and INPEX announced a landmark strategic joint venture partnership that will accelerate development of vast natural gas resources from the onshore Beetaloo Basin in Australia’s Northern Territory. The collaboration brings together Formentera’s leading shale expertise and INPEX’s global LNG capabilities to establish a new domestic natural gas source for Australia and support future LNG exports to premium markets in Asia and around the world.

Partnership highlights:

INPEX to acquire ~68,000 net acres across a core ~355,000-gross-acre block within Formentera’s 1.9 million-net-acre position in the basin through a staged earn-in for up to $208 million in consideration, which is subject to structured off-ramp provisions.

INPEX has option to acquire ~75,000 additional net acres within the core block for $266 - $411 million in consideration, dependent on option execution timing.

The transaction consideration will be primarily delivered as development capital by carrying the well costs of the drilling program.

continued, much more

https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/formentera-inpex-announce-strategic-partnership-110000755.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGNk9cIJEa1gGeZM3HTV9b2VjVF_-YmUor95pcFfKL-Hfenr3YZk7S9A4jMblT_mi3sfG6tSt1bkx8KDhtX4c8FFZVD8LyXBBuQejoFUWty4g3HScZ3G8sb_aZyZfWsW-H6obwg3vEritkoV9uT4D-OB0mfk75CtJhWy0i70Yzow

Nm

''Bad -

Seeing Machines (SEE) - H1 results in line, but look grim. Balance sheet weak. Looks a risky bet on EU regulations kicking in with higher royalties soon. I would have expected more progress by now. I’m nervous about this one. So moved down to AMBER/RED, purely to flag risk.''

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1fNA!,f_auto,q_auto:best,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc52ae1bf-ccbb-4f7c-bf80-bfae0e526dc0_1600x876.png?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email