RC update27 Nov 2018 05:11
Newcrest Tops Up!
Impact: Mildly Positive
SolGold has announced that Newcrest Mining has exercised its top-up rights, to maintain 13.7% ownership in the company (Figure 1), which follows a strategic investment by BHP and a significant increase in the resource at the company’s flagship Cascabel project. This update aligns with our view that Alpala, within the wider Cascabel project, is a world-class deposit with scale potential that separates it from the pack and is receiving ongoing interest from majors. We highlight that we will be hosting a live webinar with Nick Mather, CEO of SolGold, on Wednesday, November 28th .
Highlights:
Largest predators still lurking. Newcrest Mining, Australia’s largest gold miner and block caving expert (Wafi-Golpu & Cadia East – Figure 2), has increased its stake in SolGold by purchasing an additional 6.71M shares pursuant to its top up rights under its original August 2016 share subscription agreement, which were priced at 37.14p (C$0.63/sh).
Competitive tension, which should provide a takeout premium. With two majors on its share register and others likely lurking in the background, we believe the eventual takeout of SolGold is likely to occur at a premium to historic multiples of 0.75x NAV or US$0.08/lb CuEq (Figure 3). A potential transaction is likely to be similar to the recent acquisition of Nevsun by Zijin Mining, as Timok and Alpala are very similar. That transaction was done at 1.25x NAV, implying a value of C$1.85/sh based on our estimates suggesting 185% from the last close of C$0.65/sh.
An exciting 2019 expected for SolGold. Besides the maiden PEA (expected in Q1/19) for Alpala, we are looking forward to ongoing exploration results, particularly from the northwest portions of the deposit, where early results imply the potential for a 2nd porphyry center.
Valuation:
Newcrest top-up highlights ongoing interest in Alpala. Solgold trades at 0.44x NAV, a slight premium to peers at 0.38x. Given the world class nature of the deposit, and the demonstrated interest of multiple majors, we believe we believe a 0.90x NAV multiple applied to our C$1.47 NAVPS estimate would be appropriate implying a value of C$1.32/share. Upcoming catalysts: 1) Ongoing exploration and 2) Maiden PEA (Q1/19).
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