Member Info for Scaramouche64

SBM, great, thanks

Some of the last patients would have been on placebo. Let’s say, sadly, some of them are not faring well. If while they were waiting for their 90 day follow ups they saw the data showing that the drug works, then this would likely have a couple of effects:
1) peeve them off
2) bias their attitude/ answers.

So you can see why the team may be waiting for these final checkups to be done before releasing top line 35 day info.

Thanks for clarification Mact - so does that mean he would not have seen phase 2 results from the ACTIV-2 trial? Might he have seen interim progress? - was it unblinded?

Thanks, great find. Do we know when it was recorded? Some of the twitter sources are saying May 2021?

RM said hundreds of thousands of doses pm. Let’s say 250,000.

We’ve been told anywhere between £1000-£2000 per treatment. Let’s say £750.

Multiples are banded around, anywhere from 7x to 30x. Let’s say 5x.

250k treatments pm x 12 months x £750 x 5 = £11.25bn Mcap. Or £56 per share.

Assuming P3 positive, EUA, orders etc. lots of assumptions, but….

The plan would include nearly $12 billion to develop — and have on hand — a range of treatments available for any known virus family even before a particular pathogen emerged as a pandemic threat.

This is all part of the messaging from Synairgen.

Do you see how 1/. and 4/. are somewhat at odds?

Given the deluge of media attention, commercial negotiations, and a multitude of other info requests that will swamp the SNG team upon publication of (good) results, I’m not surprised they are taking their time to get everything in order

Yes…. Which may mean it has been filled already and they are advertising it for transparency or marketing value.

Just ‘Ukraine’, not ‘the Ukraine’ please. The latter implies it is simply a geographic area (Putin’s narrative), whereas the former acknowledges its status as a sovereign nation.

Cheers!

The security is halted to allow dissemination of related news that may have material impact on the value of the company.

https://www.td.com/ca/webbroker/help/halted.html

Volume in the USA spiked to 181k yesterday. Haven’t seen that for a while. RM and team have integrity but if an order is working through congressional funding committees that’s a lot of people (and their spouses) who will start getting wind of this.

And this: https://www.thepetitionsite.com/en-gb/898/059/734/ban-stock-trading-for-members-of-congress/

Follow them both, and then twitter will tell you ‘Also followed by X’, if you follow X as well.

SJ does not follow Synairgen, yet

On the topic of US buying, someone has been buying SYGGF and the volume has spiked the last few days. More traded in the past 4 days than in the past 6 months (ish). This was mentioned on Thursday but has been happening for a few days now.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/syggf

For those people getting upset by the pre-readout price action, remember that in the month prior to P2 results the price dropped from 45p to 33p.

Patient enrolment and retention also being a key reason why trials fail. Again, not a problem here…

Yep - the 64.5% success rate is after accounting for trials that have stopped midway, been suspended, lost funding etc. but I can’t get the breakdown. We’ve got past all those hurdles so are significantly better off than this probability.

Phase transition success rates reported in this study were based on transition rates, not necessarily resulting from safety or efficacy data. Transition rates are negatively impacted by early development termination due to commercial and regulatory uncertainty as well as economic and portfolio management decisions.

Yes I saw that. They may have had a different source.

We also can’t know how the probability is improved by passing 2 x P2 trials beforehand (including ACTIV), and subsequently passing the futility assessment at midpoint. Each of these would increase the probability versus the average.

Page 9

There was some debate on this yesterday/ previously. This paper has success rate for P3 clinical trials for respiratory illnesses at 64.5%. Not too shabby.

https://pharmaintelligence.informa.com/~/media/informa-shop-window/pharma/2021/files/reports/2021-clinical-development-success-rates-2011-2020-v17.pdf