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https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/trading-analysis-27th-sept-2018-308

Really enjoyed reading this Alfa. The art of misdirection lives!

The MM's really did their jobs very well teasing out shares yesterday. They know people saw 30p as a (completely arbitrary) milestone and capitalised. I agree on the stop loss. That was nothing but highway robbery.

$120 vanadium. Fortune's 'busy pipeline' for the end of the year. Mokopane due, BE valuation and mandates, dividends, Lemur plans, 5000MTV upgrades, Brownfield, JSE listing, AIM100. Don't be caught out. We aren't even half way to fair value for this year, let alone to the £ signs we warrant for next.

For someone so involved with electric cars and putting rockets in space, he really can be remarkably stupid.

Thank goodness we have Fortune. Musk would probably have tried to solve our recent industrial action through the medium of Twitter. Frightening.

Or even the maths behind his own forward outlook.

That's a nice move from LSE. Well done. They know what an example this board is.

A bit of consolidation isn't a bad thing. Great to see we have finally reached a point where 30p is considered a dip.

Brilliant.

Just a note on the impact from the strike mentioned by Fortune. What's to say engineering, maintenance, upgrade and work on the grades hasn't been ongoing in the background. It could be that BMN are waiting to see what results that work will deliver now the plant is up and running again. The use of the word 'may' relating to possible impact is very suggestive.

Gambit, finished because of the pricing lag, ie we know what the mid price for Q3 is.

Posted on BMN (from Vox)

Bushveld Minerals (BMN) is a curious business. On the one hand, its energy division is at the forefront of energy storage, and its vanadium redox flow battery project at Eskom has just won a $0.5m grant from the US government. On the other hand, following the award of a 30-year concession from the government of Madagascar, it is pressing ahead with a coal-to-power project. In the middle is a now-wildly profitable vanadium mine, which meant the consolidated group generated a post-tax profit of £21.1m in the first half of 2018, from revenues of £62.1m.

Those opportunities will certainly come, there is a fatalism about share movements, they go up and down regardless. And, as evidenced by the BB here, which still now comprises many of the same voices since 2p, we always experience waves of new arrivals and similarly departures that help to present said opportunities but in the long term it's holding shares (trading or not) that wins. Most impressively and tellingly the core holders remain the constant anchor here. Some trade positively to increase their holdings or to have cashflow to buy the dips, others, some dont. Usually more temporary visitors sell out when they perceive a rise to be done or a dip to be too large. The former group are on our side, the latter are not well researched enough to stay so don't worry about them. How often do we then see a sense of regret on Twitter or elsewhere - 'I wish I had loaded up at lower prices' or 'I sold at xx and should have held'. It's the story of BMN really. For me it's been a reallycdefining signature. More people than usual on a share BB for a share that rises this much will be able to claim they held from low single figures all the way to 3 figures, but even more will be left with a sense of regret that they didn't quite get the most out of a share that actually did go all the way. I plan to be in the former camp.

Best of luck to those that trade some and those who don't, but most of all to those who have the ability to hold the rest.

It also depends very much upon when additional production comes online ans at what run rate they can hit from say one. Most published targets are companies best guesses. How often do construction projects and specifically mining projects that involve extensive construction as many of the new ones do, complete on time and budget and hit their target run rate immediately? Most of them still need funding to a greater or lesser extent.

Every chance some of these newer projects will be less efficient, later arrivals than envisaged.

If their 2018 forecast is $77.8 they are assuming the price is still high for the rest of 2018. On that basis you can assume that we begin 2019 around, for arguments sake, $100 per kg. Therefore his projection for next year mathematically would have to factor in the price starting to drop from current levels pretty early in the year, really within the next 6 months and then crashing unceremoniously past $35 to levels well below their average and staying there for a very large chunk of the year.

Does anyone think that's possible?? Even if by some impossible freak of nature, a fully operational vanadium mine descends from space in the next few months and picks up the slack, imagine either how much vanadium it would need to produce, instantly, to cause that kind of fall in price or on the other side of the coin, what would have to happen to demand, within both the construction market and the blossoming market for electrolyte, to achieve an average of $35.

Nice job title for your new role at SPAngel Knuttie.

*won't happen.

Its a complete lack of acknowledgement of every fundamental dynamic at play in the vanadium market right now. I would love also to hear Fortune's opinion of that outlook. I wonder if he would agree - you know being that our business plan is structured around the fact that it won't.

I would love to ask John exactly where they foresee the vanadium coming that will fill the yet unfilled deficit for next year, in the next three months, bearing in mind our own production forecast lowered and the next mine is forecast for 2020/21 at absolute best case and that's our own, Mokopane.

It's never enough PB, that's right. Fortunately we got here with minimal input from them outside the interviews and placing and we will get to £1+ in the same way.

Yes, great SP performance today, I'd imagine the MMs are happy to accumulate at this level and sell on for more later. A few LTH's mentioned selling or top-slicing around these levels, good luck to them too, it's all liquidity. A bit of a revolving door today! Some great buying also and the bid seems to be creeping up again.

I'd also DL the V101 doc from the BMN site, there's a full exposition around projected supply deficit over the next few years. Multiple mines are needed over the next few years just to meet base levels of demand. BMN will introduce Mokopane to meet some of that demand, not to oversupply. Initially through offtakes of ore, but latterly through greenfield. There's a long way to go before over supply is an issue, that's for sure. It's really worth a read. It'll answer your question exactly. Bear in mind also some price stabilisation will be desirable at some point to help with VRFB adoption. Mokopane can only be a good thing.

I expect.

It's Capa. Obvs

Lol. You really presume a lot and know absolutely nothing.

Filtered.

Exactly Daisan, it's not rocket science.