RE: What’s your views on today Imphobe?11 Sep 2021 09:24
Jace, my average will be 75p if I take the OO but, for a change, I agree with you that DB can't be trusted. Hence I don't think we will see breakeven point in near future. But I disagree that this will go in single digits like pre-covid because of successful AIHL project. I am not sure whether I should get out now and wait for rest of September or leave it as it is. My guess is that there won't be much movement in SP for rest of the month (25 to 30p).
RE: What’s your views on today Imphobe?11 Sep 2021 08:55
It looks like some people have been missing me. It also looks like some of you have been celebrating for getting it right. OK, you win. There is nothing more to discuss. I was optimistic and believed that GDR/BC would have sold something! Lost a lot of money here but trying to work out the next move. I tried to digest the last co*k up by my favourite DB yesterday and only managed to sleep for few hours, so please keep it gentle. There is no point in 'i told you so' discussion please.
So we are now sitting at 28p which is basically the same as 41p with possible diluted shares (106m now) with around 26m market cap. Can we justify this MCAP? I think it is solely based on potential AIHL business in UK (£5m) and few £s from other small businesses. We know that there is no competition or alternative there. CE mark shouldnt be a problem as it is just change of instrument design. There is very little chance of this business going away. If we get into EU to capture £30m market then there should be some upside but this will be next year unless the market gives us favourable push on CE marking. Considering this to be long term business, we can expect at least 3-4 times MCAP (ie around £1/share) at best!
POC: Considering how we messed up with PCR, not sure how much rise we will get on CE approval. PCR: Wait and see game there. IF we get FDA approval, it should help us recover some losses but it looks like the DB is not interested there anymore after messing up with Indian deal. HCV: Not clear what is happening there. There was no update about any issues they mentioned in the RNS. Needs more clarity.
The new share come in trading on 1st October. This leaves nearly 3 weeks for SP to move around 25p mark. I personally am not keen to take the OO shares but will have to see where we go in next 3 weeks. I am currently 70% down with average of 89p. If I move anywhere else, I will need 300% rise. My plan will be to hold it to atleast 45p and then move. I just hope that we will reach there in October with 2 CE marking news. What do people think?
Thanks Preefty. Have more or less switched off from here for few days. Plenty of green boxes adding great value to the discussion! One news (out of many in pipeline) will make this SP a history forever. The disbelievers will reply with their version of truth and opinions. Inphobe & Rizq seems to be there to counter their arguments. Thanks guys.
I am sure the eagle eyed people here have already noticed a new link on BC website on GDR product page titled 'scheduled Order'! Any idea of what this could be? People working in this field may be able to shed some light. Sound like something similar to 'tracking order already placed'.
All I have shown is the potential of GDR. It all depends on BC as the production capacity is their own published figure and not mine. Go and tell them that they are wrong. Don't worry about me, I have enough well wishers who understand my position. That's all for today
My target of 160p is still there. It is now a bit lower with some average down. This is where I become mortgage free! Big thing for me. Said that few times before but I am sure the gutter dwellers with note pads of people's previous posts conveniently ignore that information.
Dave: Still not a fan of DB and can kill him for what he did last time round. It is not upto DB to sell now. It is upto BC. Can anyone else have more info to prove my calculations wrong? 'Not sold a bean' etc is not a valid excuse because no one here knows of sales figure.
It will be great Rookie. I have said this few times that this is the GDR potential from PCR. No one knows whether and how much will BC be able to sell or is selling. It only accounts for 250 labs using 10 pack kit a day in UK/ US/ EU. Even 10% of that means a lot of money. The doubters will declare me and BigAl 'liars' but it is actually them who are ignorant and have no clue of what business potential means and how companies are valued. The lack of sales figure is why we are sitting at this price. Not for long though.
Just an update on price prediction to remind few people: 10,000 beads/hr x 24 hrs x 365 days x £6 profit/test = £525,600,000 64,000,000 shares Mcap x1 = £8.21/ share Mcap x 2 = £16.42/ share Mcap x3 = £24.63/share
User: I don't blame coldspy for his decision but I have fallen for it in the past. Learnt that on GDR itself. My target was to sell at 160p but it didn't last for more than few minutes. Could have sold at 150p but decided to wait a little bit! Still regretting. Not that SP will not go there again but it meant waiting for few more months. Wanted to be out by end of June. Now wait for at least POC news
Just a reminder of GDR's AIHL business that is more or less confirmed and should start brigning some money this year. DB mentioned around £50m/ year potential. The calculation is simple: Neonatal ICU admissions/ year UK: 100,000 (200 units) US: 400,000 (750 units) EU: 500,000 (around 1000 units) That is around a million admissions, generating around £50/test. There is no competition. It is not a cost burden compared to £1500/day cost (upto 3 months hospital stay) for these admissions. This is the long term income generator, evenif everything else is failed. This alone can justify MCAP of over £100m long term. MCAP will correct itself once the rollout stats in UK later this year. I hope this helps people make their decisions.
Coldspy: it is very clear from your post yesterday that you are waiting to buy in at lower price. But I know what people like you will do. You will buy in at peak when the SP will jump on any news and effect of FOMO and will come back moaning when it corrects a bit. You are the feeder for the rich MMs. You may be right this time but I am sure you will wait a bit longer hoping for few penny drop. Good luck