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According to AI.

Right to look at the strike as the critical domino that set this entire disaster in motion, as 16 weeks of complete work stoppage created a massive, unprecedented bottleneck that the system never recovered from.

A 16-week sustained strike means that for nearly four months, regular processing ground to a halt, which naturally caused severe, compounding problems down the line for several distinct reasons.

1. The Backlog "Mountain" Stopped the System From Ever Catching Up

• The Impossible Starting Line: Because of the strike, Capita inherited 86,000 stuck cases on Day One. In pension administration, a backlog of that size means staff spend all their time handling emergency complaints rather than processing normal retirements.

• The Dominated Resource Drain: Instead of training on the new IT systems, staff were forced to do emergency triage on the oldest, worst cases left behind by the strike.

2. The Strike Broke the Data Transition

• Unprocessed and Untested Data: For a data transition to work, data must be clean and up-to-date. Because the strike paused data processing right before the transfer, Capita was forced to migrate a "live" mountain of messy, incomplete, and stuck files.

• The IT Blindspot: When Capita introduced their new digital portal, the system crashed largely because it could not handle the sheer volume of broken, half-processed member profiles that accumulated during the 16 strike weeks.

3. The Customer Panic and System Crash

• Four Months of Silence: Because of the strike, thousands of civil servants received no updates on their pensions for months.

• The Tsunami of Calls: When the contract transferred, a massive wave of panicked members flooded the new phone lines and emails all at once, immediately breaking Capita's customer service infrastructure.

Summary

While independent technical glitches did happen later, the 16-week strike is what structurally broke the system’s foundation. It created a mountain of work so massive that it turned standard IT and transition hurdles into a total systemic collapse.

Baroness Ros Altmann, an expert in pensions and later life policy, told MSE:

The scheme seems to have been let down by the previous administrator, which left massive problems for the new firm taking over just a few weeks ago.

Unopened letters and emails seem to have been left piling up, which is why many members seem to have problems that started months or even years ago, well before Capita started, which were just left in abeyance.

I feel for all those who have been badly affected by this. The situation is of course really disappointing and creates real difficulties and hardship for those affected. A scheme with so many members means even if only a small proportion of the total membership is affected, that means many individuals.

I am told that Capita and the Cabinet Office were taken aback at how many urgent (and non-urgent) issues had not been dealt with and they have now had to pick up the pieces.

Oasis, Harwood, UBS are all increasing their shareholding. Soon share price will start flying up with high speed.

UBS Group AG: In November 2025, the investment bank acquired voting rights in Capita plc, raising its total holding to 7.117583%.

What a difference in share price in 10 years. Oct 30 2015 and now. Hope it reach there in next 10 years.

I read that Fine imposed on Capita by ICO is third largest fine on any company in history in UK. There were so many bigger security failures by big companies some even top ftse 100 companies which escape with no fine. I wonder why ICO fined Capita such a big amount even though company in small cap. I feel that it's unfair. May be I am wrong.

I think Keir purchase and sell is one-off.

6.13% shareholding by UBS in Capita Company

There is no published evidence that UBS has a general pattern of quickly buying and then selling large shareholdings in UK companies. Disclosures and investment reporting indicate that UBS’s direct purchases of big stakes—such as its recent acquisition of over 6% in Capita plc—are unusual and subject to regulatory transparency requirements, typically for long-term portfolio or institutional strategies rather than rapid turnover[reuters +1].

UBS’s Investment Approach in UK Equities

There is no recent news or regulatory disclosure suggesting that UBS purchases large single-company positions in UK PLCs for the purpose of selling quickly.

Here is a comparative overview of Mitie, Capita, and Serco in 2025:

Mitie Group plc (FY 2025 ending March)

• Revenue: £5.09 billion, up 13% year-on-year, including 9% organic growth.

• Operating Profit: £161.6 million after other items, slightly down from £165.7 million in 2024.

• Order Book: Record £15.4 billion total contract value, up 35% from 2024.

• Strategic Focus: Transitioning towards technology-led facilities transformation and energy management services. Completed a £366 million recommended cash/share offer for Marlowe plc.

• Profit Before Tax: £145.4 million.

• Cash Flow: Strong cash generation with free cash inflow of £142.8 million.

• Challenges: Increased finance costs and one-off acquisition-related costs.

Capita plc (Half Year 2025, August)

• Net Debt: Approximately £412 million.

• Liquidity: £250 million undrawn revolving credit facility, total liquidity ~£384 million.

• Performance: Half-year results show restructuring costs impacting cash flow but maintaining positive outlook with strong contract wins.

• Outlook: Focus on cost-saving measures, contract renewals, and growth in public sector business.

• Share Price: Volatile but recovering with analyst confidence.

Serco Group plc (Recent 2025 Data)

• Revenue: Around £4.8 billion estimated for FY 2025 with steady growth since 2015.

• Debt: Approximately £800 million with active debt management.

• Focus: Government services outsourcing with diversified contract portfolio.

• Financial Health: Moderate leverage with credit ratings Moody’s Baa3, S&P BBB-.

• Recent Trends: Increasing contract wins and cash flow improvements offsetting debt costs.

As of August 2025, Capita plc reported a net debt of approximately £412.2 million, slightly down from £415.2 million at the end of 2024. This figure includes £87 million of financial debt and £325 million of IFRS 16 lease liabilities but excludes around £94 million of sublet lease receivables related to its property portfolio rationalization.

Capita’s liquidity position remains strong with an undrawn revolving credit facility of £250 million and total liquidity around £384 million. The company extended the maturity of its revolving credit facility to December 2027 and issued new private placement notes in 2025 to support debt refinancing.

Overall, net debt has improved modestly in the first half of 2025, reflecting ongoing efforts to manage leverage while investing in contract delivery and technology solutions

Here is the summary of Serco Group plc’s total debt by year since 2015 in GBP million:

• 2015: Approximately £400-450m after rights issue debt reduction

• 2016: Around £430-450m (estimated from financial health reports)

• 2017-2018: Estimated stable around £400-500m based on available data trends

• 2019: Debt started rising, estimated around £600-700m based on debt to equity ratios

• 2020: Approximately £460m net debt reported, with a rise to £609m forecasted in 2021

• 2021: Forecasted and reported around £609m to £650m net debt

• 2022: Around £650m net debt forecasted to £630m reported

• 2023: Estimated around £560m to £630m net debt range

• 2024: Reported debt around £806m (headline for fiscal semester)

• 2025 (est.): Forecast predicts rising debt to approximately £820m, potentially peaking before declining

The general trend shows Serco significantly reduced its debt post-2015 rights issue but experienced a gradual increase in net debt levels from 2019 onwards, with a recent jump in 2024 before an expected reduction later in 2025.

Note: Figures are estimates based on net debt, total debt, and financial health indicators from public financial sources and company reports. Exact annual debt numbers may vary slightly depending on reporting conventions and currency conversions.

The UK BPO market growth forecast up to 2035 highlights the following:

• The overall UK BPO market is projected to grow with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) around 8.9% from 2025 to 2035, reaching a valuation of approximately USD 32 billion by 2035.

• Business analytics within the BPO sector is expected to grow even faster globally, from USD 10.3 billion in 2025 to USD 39.4 billion by 2035, with a CAGR around 14.4%. This reflects the growing demand for outsourced data analytics and predictive services.

• Supply chain management BPO services are forecast to grow from USD 80 billion in 2025 to USD 155 billion by 2035 with a CAGR of 6.9%, impacting the UK market as well.

• Back office BPO services are expected to grow at a CAGR of about 7.2% globally during 2024-2032, driven by digital transformation and increasing demand for cost savings and compliance management.

Regarding growth specifically for Capita, Serco, and Mitie:

• While there are no exact individual long-term growth forecasts publicly detailed for these companies, all three are major UK-focused BPO providers well positioned to benefit from overall UK market growth.

• Their growth will be influenced by trends toward digital and AI-enabled outsourcing, increased public sector outsourcing, and expanding contracts in areas like facilities management and customer services.

• Serco’s strong public sector and defense contracts, Capita’s IT and professional services outsourcing, and Mitie’s facilities and property services all align them well with segments of market expansion.

In summary, the UK BPO market and adjacent service segments are forecast for strong double-digit to near double-digit growth rates over the next decade, creating a positive growth outlook for key players Capita, Serco, and Mitie as they leverage digital capabilities and public sector demand

Market Summary

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Computacenter plc

2,363.20 GBX

+364.20 (18.22%)past 5 years

Aug 19, 5:00 PM GMT+1 • Disclaimer

Five years share price up by 18.22%. Big gain

The main differences between Capita company, UK in 2018 and 2025 relate to its business structure, financial health, strategic focus, and technological adoption:

1. In 2018, Capita was undergoing a major transformation after a profit warning, dividend suspension, a £700 million rights issue, rising debts (£1.15 billion predicted), and a pensions deficit of £381 million. The company was struggling financially, with its share price drastically falling due to various operational challenges, including loss of some major contracts. At that time, Capita still had 10 divisions and was focused on cost cutting, divesting non-core businesses, and stabilizing the company under new CEO Jonathan Lewis, appointed in late 2017.

2. By 2023-2025, Capita had significantly simplified its business to only 2 core divisions—Public Service and Experience—and improved financial performance, with reduced debt (£84.9 million net financial debt end of 2022), returning to profitability, and a stronger balance sheet. Capita also repositioned towards digital services with a focus on AI-driven solutions and innovation, supported by investments like the Capita AI Catalyst Lab.

3. In 2025, Capita pursued aggressive cost-saving targets (aiming for £250 million annual cost savings by end 2025) and demonstrated growth in contract wins (up 17% year on year in H1 2025) with more than £4.4 billion in technology business pipeline. The company also improved employee engagement scores and emphasized sustainable and efficient delivery of public services.

4. Structurally and culturally, Capita made commitments around social value, such as living wage payments in the late 2010s (though later abandoned), and adapted to hybrid work models, improved contract profitability, and bidding discipline.

In summary, from a troubled and complex outsourcing business in 2018 facing financial distress and market challenges, Capita in 2025 is a more focused, financially healthier, digitally oriented company with growing momentum and better operational metrics. The company now positions itself at the intersection of public sector innovation and customer experience with a technology-driven approach. Share price in 2016 nearly £1000 after consolidation and in 2025 nearly £2.50. Employees in 2016 nearly 75000 and on 2025 nearly 34000.

Now do your own research.

Annual financial reports and account on www.capita.com. Page 226

Page 226. Capita balance sheet. Report 2024. Check on capita.com. Page 226

CPI fundamentals on lse.co.uk

Hope they use money in share premium account to buy back shares. By the way share premium account got over 1.00 Billion pounds.

WMS limited had 905 employees. Not sure how many now but it most probably over 500. Loss making business with over 500 staff. I think it’s good decision to sell.