Member Info for sageoflondon

That's partly tax related - taxes everywhere will be following on the road up however. Investors are more willing to embrace boom and bust in the US....accepted as the journey to success sometimes, more so than it is here. Ultimately people IPO where they will get the most out of it. That's the US for technology probably. or it was.....I think the Nasdaq will fall another 10-20% yet. We shall see.

I know this is off topic, but it was only last week that the CEO of Wandisco was talking about a dual listing with a New York float and the blow this dealt to the UK market (where it would maintain it's listing). Around £9m of revenues and a market capital approaching £1bn. All of that valuation based on future order book - I would never purchase £9m of revenue today for that price - and today it is essentially worthless. There will be no US listing, rather fraud and a likely complete loss for investors. A lot got over pumped in the folly that was the Covid technology boom and they haven't all been found out yet. Some will go on to be decent companies, a miniscule amount will go on to great things, Revolut might well have longevity - not sure on that yet - it's the valuation that left no room for delays or errors etc - or for that matter no further gains at the price it floated at. Presumably Cazoo went to the US as it could get the float away at a higher price - now it's valued at 1% of the original value. So maybe teh UK becomes more'marginal' - I'm not quite sure what that means. If it means that the market and the participants apply a greater level of scrutiny and doubt to over-hyped valuations (so they go elsewhere) then that is no bad thing in my book. In the end a significant amount of equity return comes in the form of dividends and surplus cashflow - the UK still has plenty of that.

I would just get a Platinum Amex if I wanted the travel benefits - not interested in Crypto. My investment accounts are with very strongly capitalised players - that administer ISAs and SIPPs very well meaning I get full tax benefits and administration on overseas shares etc. I have yet to see a reason why I would want to pay for a bank account or credit card for that matter......

I have no idea what an Ultra account is but I will take a look.

I think it equally as likely they have a lot of customers (27 million?) who aren't really that active or don't make Revolut much in the way of actual profit. Sure they are technically a customer..

possibly some - either way the valuation isn't warranted. I think Monzo, Starling etc will all attract some away, along with the likes of US banks - e.g. Citibank, Marcus (GS) etc. I use 4 banks, a mainstream one for my current account which I don't pay for and which I never leave any excess cash in, savings banks which pay very good rates etc, I have no reason to leave my current bank, everything works well, the app is good etc.

I'm not interested in who has been fined for what etc - I am far from an ESG investor - just concerned about return. A fine here or there is irrelevant to me if the company makes it's shareholders bags of money. My point with Revolut is at $33bn it was way overvalued - my only criticism of Grow would be why not sell if they had an opportunity at $33bn? Either they didn't have an opportunity or they didn't wish to as they thought it would be worth more - I disagree with the latter. Revolut isn't comparable to the large banks in anyway (except it's valuation apparently). It is not even close to the level of complexity of those organisations and there will always be pockets of wrongdoing in very large organisations - human nature. At present though Grow have Revolut as part of there NAV, albeit at what I consider to be a slightly reduced valuation - my view is it's likely worth potentially $5bn at present. That to me means it likely should have been written down further.

It won't fly at all you are right. Much more likely is a fall back to earth with a circa $5bn valuation until is has verifiable revenues in the $2-3bn range. Upon obtaining a banking license it will incur significant costs of compliance which will eat margin up for a significant period of time - that's why breaking into the world of mainstream banking is so difficult, huge fixed costs ultimately that reward the larger players like Lloyd's, Barclays etc, even when they aren't that strong from a customer service offering perspective. A valuation comparable to Lloyd's, Barclays etc is laughable.

I don't believe it will fly at all - it was valued at $33bn. Monzo revenues reached £440m did not have a qualified audit opinion and was valued at $4.5bn in the last funding round - it already has a UK banking license - why is Revolut worth so much more than Monzo (without a banking license), roughly 7 times as much per the last funding rounds.....

Regardless - it's still pretty shoddy to get a qualified audit opinion. It is not suggestive of a strong / robust control environment. The way a lot of the larger banks get around the legacy (clunky) systems is lots of additional manual / automated controls that can be relied upon, along with the appropriate levels of staff to support this control environment. It's likely that the audit fee was on the low side given the nature of Revolut's business or to provide the relevant verification - I haven't looked at the size of the fee. It would also be very unusual to see a non Big 4 as lead auditor on any of the major banks - all will likely be led by Big 4 as below that other audit firms would find it very difficult to resource.

Correct me if I am wrong - but didn't the auditor issue a qualified audit opinion on revenue for Revolut?? That isn't great. That would go a significant way to making a quoted company uninvestible. It suggests significant questions around the recording of revenue - that could have a significant impact on any profit figure. Growth also looks to have slowed significantly revenue wise. The technology element of the organisation I work for grew faster than Revolut from a standing start in 2020 - also with higher absolute revenues. No way ours would be valued at $33bn.

Steph - you will know the answer to this - roughly how much cash do MV have on hand for follow on investments etc? Assuming most of that is headroom on a revolving credit facility or something similar?

Profit taking - possible buying in prior to results, betting on an outperform.....when it's in-line they sell. Me I'm continuing to hold. This has been a great investment last 5 years, especially with dividends on top. 5 year view - this will be at £2-£3 a share - just my opinion for what it's worth. Based on organic growth, Petra, online expansion etc. Well run, management very competent indeed based on what I have seen in the last few years. Lots of skin in the game for management as well.

apologies - I meant a trading update on Tuesday.....!!!

My personal view only - this is worth around £20-25 at present, somewhere in-between. Once Primark establishes it's International growth credentials and inflation stabilises I think you could well be right. It will take 12-24 months in my opinion to get up towards £30. It isn't going there overnight, just because it was back there a while back.

I believe we are due a trading update on Monday. Whilst I am not expecting this to be significantly ahead, I would expect something in line, with a slightly improved outlook as it relates to input cost inflation, particularly shipping. I am expecting some news on how things are going with some of the supply disruption that previously impacted online sales. It would also be good to get an update on Petra and how that has started to perform. Overall I think it will be a positive update. Fingers crossed.

This will continue to be volatile. I don't see any near term catalysts for a substantial re-rate. Again, I stick with my range of around 350p to 600p for the next 12-18 months. If there is any substantial bad news on NAV this has the potential to tank - there isn't any at present. Investors waiting to sell down at the slightest hint of bad news at present and this is already very volatile price wise in terms of daily volatility. I am not convinced that a listing is the best environment for a company like Grow, essentially lots of short term investors, whilst the vehicle is a long term slow burn, not very liquid, particularly at present.

Not in respect of that comment - it should be expected in a portfolio like this. There will always be a percentage that fail. If they remain in the portfolio longer and need more capital / need to IPO etc. that has the potential to increase the likelihood / frequency.

The delay in IPO / Offload will likely expose a number of companies - as it would have with Cazoo. That won't be the only one. Plenty of portfolio companies will go under.

Totally agree re that article. I think the FTSE is still good value personally. That has been my play since the middle of last year (and to an extent before that). I think it has a little way to go if inflation stabilises as well - in an upwards direction. It's still not that much higher than it was at it's previous peak in all honesty. The pound is weak, yet the FTSE has a significant proportion of it's earnings in dollars.