The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
BV, I so wish you would stop ramping. With have debt and interest to pay as well as the new pipeline. IF we get a bounce in the oil price this could happen more quickly than currently feared. In the meantime adding to the debt pile for expansion or funding it with a rights issue at this sp price would hardly be commercially sensible.
The issue is very simple - the price of gas. Today it is 57 per therm. It has fallen sharply in recent weeks just as we got the side track producing. Earlier this year GL was projecting at 200 per therm. Hopefully prices will rise but I know of several of my clients who have cut back by 20%. GL's delays have proved to be very expensive. This is now a much de-risked long term hold. GLA
OMG 0.06p. I sold out at circa 1p but keep this on my watch list. So SS aka Billy no shares the great diluter and destroyer of wealth is still at the wheel and laughing at PI’s who he sees as gullible providers of free money. This share is uninvestable. Sell whilst you can…
Being 100% honest I did not expect to be at 1.2p post sidetrack. My B/E is 2p but this is only 0.5% of my portfolio. I expect 3p within 12 months . I will double my holdings but the trend is your friend so for now I will defer buying. GLA
B.V., to be clear I was saying that I would rather GL had hit his deadlines so we had sold gas into the spike and be debt free , profitable and in a position to pay dividends with a far higher NAV and sp. In contrast you are saying that it’s all ok because the losses and debt payments mean we won’t pay tax for a while. Well excuse me but I would rather be in the former situation and an sp 5 p plus than in the current world but each to his own!
No mention in the RNS as to what extent waxing continues to reduce production and whether the new high pressure system will cure it. The company must have an expectation for increased flow. Typical of Art that he has not communicated it.
Output data is fine. The issue is that GL missed every deadline, landed us with debt and missed the gas price spike . The weekend newspapers were full of electricity price falls and the reasons why, hence the sellers. We now have a long haul ahead to reduce debt and sort out the pipe line. A de-risked play from here with 2-3p possible by year end. We need another oil spike...
It occurs that every question we are asking a potential JV partner would be asking too. RBL (what is the resource, what is the potential resource?) how fast can the oil be extracted (is the waxing issue a perma problem?). The potential is obvious which is why we invested but accurately assessing the commercial reality must be nearly impossible. IMHO that is why the JV partner can't tie the knot...yet.
If Art really has invested over $1m then whatever we feel he must feel it too which gives me a level of satisfaction. But why is the JV taking so long? I guess the weather didn't help but it must be hard to assess the quantum due to waxing etc. A £ in 100 years is worth less that a £ today. What a JV does is massively speed up extraction so that the 100 years becomes 10 years and the NPV goes through the roof (as well as suppling money and expertise). But how do you do a deal with waxing issues and an o/s RBL? I have a B/E here of 20p and still expect to do Ok but this 1000 to 1 consolidation makes me shudder.
Gas on tap , I suggest that you look up gas prices per therm on tradingeconomics.com. Price has gone from 100 to 73 in the last month. GL missed the spike precisely as I forecast last year (the posts are on record). We need to hope for an uplift. We made our hedge provider very wealthy and then ramped up production just when prices fell. Thus this is now a long term haul to turn around debt etc.
I was liaising with Cathy some months back and she reminded me that not only did Art invest circa 400k at an average of circa 24p but he had previously invested. A 1000 to 1 consolidation makes this stock uninvestable at the moment. In shooting fellow investors in the foot he similarly damages himself. Art is either a genius about to pull off a fantastic coup with a blow the doors off JV or a delusional financially incontinent fool. I hope for the former but am beginning to fear that the latter is the case. This reminds me of that delusional idiot SS at UDOG (UKOG!) but SS never invested his own cash.
Sillybuttons , I too had to average down here and ended up with too high a holding (I should never have let a stock like this be 2% of my portfolio). I sold 75% of it such that this is now 0.5% of my portfolio at an average of precisely 2p. For me it is now a long term hold given the cashflow and I expect it to show me a profit in the next 12 months. I intend to let production settle and then perhaps increase it back to a 1% holding. From these levels with the side track a success I believe that the risk/reward ratio is pretty good for new investors. GLA
Y11 - FWIW I am not expecting a JV with Exxon…it was just to illustrate a point. Also I have actually averaged up having initially bought at 7p. The point is though that good news could land at any time . Tullow is less than 0.5% of my portfolio and I am very comfortable with it. GLA
No shares Patel I am sorry but you are delusional. You have won nothing. You are not invested and investing is about making money. If you buy low and sell at a profit then all good but for now ( assuming you are not shorting) you have made nothing. The point is that despite your crowing we could wake up tomorrow with the news of an Exxon JV and you would be left looking pretty silly. In contrast those who have averaged down will be smiling. FWIW being unattractively smug is not a good look!
Buy the rumour sell the fact or sell the rumour buy the fact. Looks like the hot money moved out today. We now have gas and side track and an SP under 1.5p. An sp deemed impossible a year ago in that scenario. Why? Missed deadlines, cost over runs and missing the biggest spike ever in gas prices. Personally I am fuming about GL's missed deadlines (read the RNS's from 18 months ago) but we are where we are. Hopefully sober reflection will allow the SP to now rise over the coming months as we pump gas and reduce debt. A spike in gas prices would help no end!
People need to consider if they are investing , trading or both. Investing is long term. Find a company with good management and good product ( in the case of a mine a solid resource ). Then sit back and wait for the commercial extraction. In contrast traders are looking to dip in and out on spikes and thus in search of news flow deadlines. Then there are investors who trade to lower their b/E etc. Sadly there are also gamblers who hear a rumour rush in and expect to multi bag next week having done zero research. I believe that we have far too many gamblers here…
I suggest that people read the RNS of 3rd April again. There is no need to ramp as everything is in the RNS. Spud in June and license for Heron imminent due to government fast tracking as a matter of "National importance." In a few months time current prices should look like bargain basement. GLA