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It’s on the Andrada website. Under the Investors heading there is a sub-heading Shareholders. The Board holdings are listed below the top shareholdings. AV has 15.3m, Michael Rawlinson has 5.3m, Glen Parson 4.3m, Laurence Robb 1.95m.
Having not had expectations met before, I understand where toptiger is coming from and there is of course always execution risk, politics, etc. However, if the EBITDA forecast of US$530m/£440m is met, a multiple of 5 produces a market cap of £2.1bn. Even if the full US$440m/£350m Capex was raised by a share issue at 7p (5bn shares on top of 1.65bn), which with the CLN being at 9.45p seems pessimistic, there would be c. 6.65bn shares in issue, so 31.5p per share. At 9.45p issue price it’s 39.25p. Given the potential upside and demand for lithium supply and other fundraising deals by lithium miners, I’d hope that at least some of the Capex will not be financed by equity dilution (and I’m sure AV would feel the same), giving further share price upside. And of course there is more lithium and tantalum that is not yet included in our MRE. Not investment advice and please challenge the calculations and take your own view but I’m holding in the belief that we should see some sort of a re-rate when phase 2 financing and timescales are announced.
They are 12 months away from production and the offer price is 33 x our market cap. Even though their MRE at 156m tonnes is double ours of 81m (of which 80% is measured or indicated compared to our c. 40%), the lithium % is 1.4 compared to our 0.73% and they are based in Australia, that makes me very hopeful that when we get a strategic partner and off take agreements signed we should see a significant re-rate.
Phase 2 requires Capex of US$440m and this is projected to deliver an after tax NPV of US$1.8bn and annual EBITDA of US$530m. Given that the current market cap is only US$125m, if this level of EBITDA is achieved then I would expect the share price to be a lot higher than the current level, even if a large chunk of the capex required were to come from new equity. The strategic review being undertaken with Barclays, which is due to report at the end of September, will give us insight into how Phase 2 is going to be financed (equity, advance payment for off take rights, debt, etc) in conjunction with a partner. I expect some dilution but the Board have skin in the game and will not want to be diluted anymore than is necessary. The recent dilution for phase 1 is at 9.45p. I’d hope that equity for Phase 2 would be at a premium to that, given that the CEO has said that they have had double digit offers that sparked the strategic review.
The RNS of 6.2.23 referenced CSA Global as a source of information and used $1,500 as the price assumption for 4% Li20.. As the $2,000 isn’t referenced in the 22.5.23 RNS,, it maybe that this figure is based on what petalite offtakers are suggesting.
Yes. It was Xinfeng Investments. It was reported in the media last November that they sought a license to export lithium tore for testing purposes and this was approved. However, no limit was put on this by the Mining Ministry and they were subsequently granted leave to export 135,000 tonnes. The media highlighted that the government would have lost millions of dollars of revenue given the price difference between ore and concentrate and the mining minister felt that the volume was such that Xinfeng must be selling ore rather than sending it for testing. I think the ban on exporting ore is to stop this sort of activity.
ATM haven’t taken out a US listing but the shares are now available for people in the US to buy over the counter from a broker or dealer. The underlying shares are still listed on AIM but this makes them accessible to US investors who can’t invest directly. I don’t understand why there is such an apparent disconnect between the OTC broker price and the share price. I would be delighted if they aligned at the GBP equivalent of US$0.50!
Good to see that a Namibian government spokesperson has told Africa-energy.com that media reports that the government is looking to take stakes in existing mining licences are untrue. It is reported that he said that, although “the possibility remains open that a certain minimum stake could be reserved in future projects, already signed contracts are inviolable.” Important for Andrada as it has mining licences for Uis (ML134) B1/C1 (ML129) and Nai-Nais (ML133). It has an exploration licence for Brandenberg West (EPL5445).