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Decent debate here in absence on the idiot herd which will inevitably arrive at some point soon... IMO it is very hard for any investor to turn down a 20p offer in the short term even if we are leaving a lot on the table. I wonder how many of our portfolios average 400% a year.... My only point is rather than a large dilutive issuance at around the current price to stay independent it would likely be more attractive to have a take out at 20p over the summer. If the NPV of the project is really over 2 billion and the current MC is 50 million - there is plenty of room for a large premium while leaving plenty on the table for the acquiror. Obviously best case is a good financing deal and a share price of between 50 and 100p within a couple of years - huge cash flow and annual dividend. Due to the take out potential i really see little downside and have loaded up to make this my 2nd biggest holding after COPL.
I am less worried about funding than some. Obviously it is best we get funded so we maintain control of our destiny and get to watch and gain from the development of the project into production. But surely with a mining licence and once the environmental permit is issued, in absence of financing, we would be strong target for a take-out by a larger mining business who does have access to cash for such a high NPV project - to be honest there could be more value there than a bad financing deal. My only point is if we can't deliver the project (and i think we will), even at multiples of the current price, the project would be attractive to a cashed up buyer. Am I missing something? This is my fall-back option which makes me think we have next to no downside to the current price.
Hi All, I have been watching for a while and want to get involved now following the placing together with the prospect of a LSE listing. HL have confirmed they cannot deal with Peterhouse due to previous issues with their placings which leaves me buying in the market. Where can i find actual pricing for these shares - i need to work out the level for fill or kill orders! Any ideas - I googled a number of different sites but there appear to be no trades today which seems unlikely.
Ah yes, I had not taken the COVID downward spike!! Quite a handy place to take the year benchmark. Nonetheless, if their 2 leading KPIs are performance against COVID lows and decreased losses by 50% - I think they need someone to set slightly more challenging targets.
On the plus side we have some detail on the portfolio - so that is something to get my teeth into.
On a side note - they are using capital under management as an indicator - does anyone have an idea on what levels of fees they generate from this? Capital under management is only relevant if it generates fees. I will take a look later when I have time to read through everything in detail.
Looks like they just wanted an extra 2 hours in bed! Will have a careful look though but highlight and lowlight for me as follows
- board estimate of fair value of investments - £21.2 vs mkt cap of £8.5m
- Share price up from low of 12.5p!!!!! Do they not understand that this is not a positive given 12.5p is the equivalent of 125p. It makes me worry the people writing and signing of this document dont understand the basics of anything. That is an embarrassment as the first highlight of the year!
I know this is a small company but it does look like it is run by amateurs or school kids - lets hope their knowledge of the tech is better than their ability to run a plc.
So tomorrow is the day I have been waiting for patiently building a decent stake buying on the dips. Please NSCI, provide some information on the portfolio which will help demonstrate clearly that the business is undervalued!
I agree westie, a very assured interview from a CEO who appears in control with a reasonable attitude to getting things done. Once my shares in COPL relist (at a premium), if the price is still sub 7 I will be averaging up here. A great prospect for the next 6 months.
@ major-tom - I am in agreement with you. We need to look at the big picture. Rothschild is running this process, it looks most likely that an asset sale will leave a rump exploration business. I think that this coincides with what has happened with the options.
I think it is clear. The raise is for drilling. The acquisition of 75% of target is shares. The remaining $5 million is undisclosed where it will come from - most likely proceeds from AA or indeed we dont actually need to complete last 25%. I am happy this raise and deal will increase earnings and therefore not dilutive to earnings in the longer term. All my understanding only.
The company does not decide its own share price - the market of buyers and sellers decides!!! Equally to the suggestion that it is like an IPO. This is only relevant if there is a fundraise with the IPO. There is no fund raise here (I hope) - so no market element to set the price. The price will surely be set in the normal way by the MMs. Note they are traders rather than valuation experts and so will not be carrying out forecast production valuations but more likely will go NT in tiny volumes until there is an equilibrium. I would have thought the starting price will be the current share price and it will shoot up until they start to find sellers ie again the market will set its own price. That starting price is irrelevant as I cant imagine there will be any takers to sell at less than double the closing price ie .76p - so within a few minutes it will have adjusted and will spike from there depending on buying demand and profit taking from short term holders.
Lets also not forget that it is very unlikely Rothschild will work fully contingent on success - meaning we are paying for their advice and they are not at the cheap end of the adviser spectrum. This to me means there is a deal. Either with AA or Rothschild is managing a competitive process which will fall out of the current process. Cos dont just hire them and then nothing happens. I will be adding.