Member Info for rossannan

edgar222

The market cares about those targets though, and bearing in mind that according the RNS it was only at the end of H1 that they had the capacity to start WF in earnest and that the RNS in fact talks about the ramping up happening in H2, it looks as if it will all be too late to help with LK’s EOY target.

NN

The pressure is building but the politics is complex. I really hope that the Energy Chamber get what they want because it would be great news for T&T’s oilers, but I don’t think the market is expecting anything if the relevant share prices are anything to go by. I won’t be around next month but it will be interesting to see what the T&T landscape is like come November and where CERP has got to by then.

http://www.guardian.co.tt/news/energy-chamber-hopes-budget-caters-to-needs-6.2.679507.672ddb2c34

edgar222

Listen again to LK talking about WF and note the six month period that he refers to. Then consider that after initial hiccups Goudron WF really didn’t get going until the end of June. The conclusion has to be that Goudron WF just isn’t going to contribute significantly to CERP’s EOY 2018 production, which is why I remain confident that LK is going to miss his 1000bopd target.

HH

It’s about being objective and realistic. What some of us post may appear negative but this is really only when you compare it to the subjective and unrealistic stuff that continues to posted on here, including by those who should know better when you consider how things have worked out in the recent past (even under LK). If you are objective and realistic here you can see that the cash burn will necessitate the LIND facility being used for working capital, not just as a Steeldrum insurance policy. Similarly, you can see that LK is more likely than not to miss his 1000bopd EOY target and you understand that a lot of what LK says is aspirational and needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. LK is no Elon Musk, but he could still do with reining it in a bit.

LGO-fan

“with the objective of production from Trinidad exceeding 1,000 bopd by the end of 2018“

“hopeful that we will see the results of the extra water availability during 2H 2018 as the water injection pilot programme ramps up”

These remind me of some quotes from previous LK RNSs that didn’t quite pan out. What has become clear with LK’s RNSs is that you have to look at them statement by statement and that you've got to ask yourself one question: information or aspiration?

It is instructive to go back and listen to what LK had to say back in the day about CF+ (and what it was supposed to mean for the funding of the business) and then compare that to where CERP is now. At some point CERP will become truly CF+, not just operationally CF+. The question is how far it will be into the LIND facility by the time that happens. That will be a significant tipping point. But by then, looming on the horizon, will be the question of funding the SWP...

Building a business and building shareholder value are not the same thing, as the previous regime so clearly demonstrated. It is up to shareholders to ensure that the business building generates something for them too.

Rugby2015

Given that WF got off to such a slow start and is therefore unlikely to make a significant contribution in 2018, what is going to drive Goudron to 700bopd by EOY? When it comes to Bonasse, LK talked about a maximum of 100bopd from the initial phase, which at EOY will surely mean less than 100bopd. What was quoted for Steeldrum was 200-250bopd, not 250bopd.

Do you not think that offerman’s EOY prediction of 850-950bopd is a lot more realistic?

LGO-fan

BWPD is not bopd. LK himself suggested that we should not expect any results from WF for six months and that we should to expect at most 100bopd from Bonasse initially. Where is your 1000bopd coming from?

LGO-fan

How would you break down where that 1000bopd is going to come from?

workover

Given the turnover so far this week, 0.5% of the company is neither here nor there.

Interesting way to present information, slightly reminiscent of the old regime: “Q1 peak production of 627 BOPD with 427-542 bopd delivered month on month Q2 peak production of 648 bopd with a steady 530-575 bopd delivered month on month” Yet H1 average production of only 485 bopd and low netbacks. Cannot see how the share price is going to stay above 4p in the short term unless in anticipation of the Q3 RNS, which I suspect will turn out to be yet another reality check. Sentiment would benefit from Steeldrum completing sooner rather than later, although I suspect that folk will overestimate Steeldrum’s relevance to CERP’s cash burn problem - the LIND facility will clearly be needed to tide CERP over until it reaches a proper turning point in cash flow terms. WF in particular has been very slow to get underway, pushing any impact that it may have into 2019. It’s over now to the market for the final verdict on today’s RNS.

reads like a reality check to me. The Q3 RNS needs to demonstrate a significant change of trajectory both in terms of production and cash burn or you may find that it will also announce the cracking open of the LIND facility (and that not so much in connection with Steeldrum, even if it is presented that way, as to prop up the company’s cash position).

MountTeide

To be fair, I did argue that TRIN would likely have to place to maintain an appropriate margin of safety (and got pelters for it) but I was certainly only envisaging a few million, not what actually transpired.

It seems clear enough to me that before exceptionals FY 2018 will see a decent operating profit. I am guesstimating something around US$5million (as opposed to the US$1.9million in FY 2017), but it will likely be hard to see the good news about TRIN’s core activity for all the exceptional items! Would be happy to take the Pepsi Challenge with any other predictions for TRIN’s FY 2018 operating profit before exceptionals...

PhotographerLTP

Correct. The air literally turned blue, by all accounts!

tidd83

And that, of course, is exactly how they justified the placing at the end of last year, to expedite the program and drill more aggressively!

marvelman on ADVFN asked the following questions: Am I the only one here questioning why they made a loss at the true operational level. What is going to chance to make a difference other than SPT reform?

You can see from yesterday’s RNS why folk might ask these questions. Hopefully the presentation was a bit more up front with the answers.

The main reason that there was a small operating loss before exceptional items was the near $1.6million loss recognised on the zero cost collar. Bear in mind that the zero cost collar expires at the end of this year.

What is going to make a difference to the profit and loss account other than SPT reform is the current drilling campaign and the (likely higher) average H2 oil price. Remember that the cost of the current drilling campaign is capitalised and only fed back into the profit and loss account over time via DD&A, while still offering some relief from SPT. H2 will therefore be significantly profitable before exceptionals which means that FY 2018 will show a significant profit before exceptionals, well in excess of the FY 2017 figure (remember that FY 2017 only showed a small profit before exceptionals).

PD

Should appear here sooner rather than later if last year is anything to go by:

http://trinityexploration.com/highlights/investor-presentations/

faz

No, as ever I will just reload!