Member Info for rossannan

...will the same turn out to be true for SWP?

Folk on here often talk about the SWP in terms of the kind of possibilities that only very deep and very expensive wells, the ones that CERP can’t actually afford, are able to offer. Maybe the conversation needs to be about what can reasonably be expected from the SWP wells that CERP (maybe even now only with help from the LIND facility - this industry is very capital intensive) can actually afford.

LGO-fan

I can’t speak for my fellow “trolls”, but, as you can see from my posting history, what I have in fact consistently challenged is the unrealistic ramping of what Spain had to offer, from the days of top ramper onceatrader onwards. As I said earlier, just check out LK and NR’s stooshie over Spain in that 10 May 2017 video. LK was clearly realistic about Spain from day one - hence his subsequent damage limitation exercises.

bigmj

I think LK grasped this right at the outset - I still remember his rather terse exchange with NR over Spain back in May 2017 - and since then he has been making the best of a bad job. Don’t think there was much in the share price for any unrealistic expectations about Spain, although some kind of drop on this news was surely inevitable.

steward1

It’s really cool that you’re concerned! As ever it’s down to what the production trajectory and cash burn look like at the relevant point in time, but with Steeldrum having been added to the mix the Q3 figures don’t give us much of a clue - also supplying Q3 figures for the original business would have provided a clearer picture. Ask me again once we have seen the EOY and Q1 figures. I don’t worry at all about missing out as I have watched folk succumbing to FOMO so often on here. The chart shows very clearly how that worked out for them. No doubt at some point, probably later rather than sooner I suspect, the sp will rise and won’t look back. If I’m not in at that point, so be it. Catch you next month or on the next RNS, if earlier.

Bamps21

Indeed, I will only believe that Steeldrum is a perfect fit when I see it, or, more to the point, when I see the bill for making it fit. I am just not buying LK’s rhetoric when it comes to something that is so obviously a Plan B. Fair play to him for coming up with one when he found himself mired in Goudron, but we’ve had the legals and the rhetoric and now need to see what LK gets up to on the ground and how much it costs. Who needs actions when you got words? That would be CERP.

steward1

I really don’t want to. I’m looking for credible evidence of a turning point - a reduction in the rate of cash burn which suggests that money won’t simply get tight again pre-SWP and necessitate another placing. We didn’t get Q3 figures for the original business, which was disappointing, so I just have to wait and see what a couple of post-Steeldrum quarters look like.

Bamps21

LK certainly started well and his rhetoric on the subject of shareholder value was compelling. Where CERP is now though is problematic, for me at least, looking back at the trajectory that LK outlined not that long ago and particularly when you consider the number of shares that will be in issue as CERP moves into 2019.

Bamps21

Building a business and building shareholder value are not the same thing. We know that he can (and is very keen to) do the former, but the jury is still out on the latter.

steward1

This is why I am saying that the shine has come off LK. He could have given the end Q3 cash balance for the original business as well as the figure that he did give us, but he chose instead to hide behind that figure of US£1.97million for the consolidated business.

Definitely on the cards if the spread would just narrow a bit.

Garnhiem.

Are you not disgruntled or do you think that between now and the first drill turning in the SWP there will neither be any recourse to the LIND facility nor a further fundraise? I am suggesting that £2.5million just won’t be enough. Probably the biggest mistake that folk continue to make on here is to underestimate how capital intensive this industry is.

offerman

I assume that I am one of your serial complainers, but I would invite you to consider the possibility that, having been well schooled by NR, I am simply a serial realist. Do you not agree that the shine has come off LK somewhat and that folk on here could do with managing their expectations a bit better? It beats me why LK did not just go large with an OO for a further £2.5million and a cast iron promise of that first SWP drill turning no later than Q1 2019. That really would be acceleration. As things stand, I suspect that folk will find that they have been diluted to pay for what they thought they were getting anyway and that there will have to be another instalment of dilution before anything happens in the SWP.

Like everyone else, I was expecting last week’s RNS alert, but I was not expecting this one.

I said last week that I expected LK to make further inroads into the LIND facility, in addition to the $1.25million that he was then talking about.

If I had said instead that I reckoned there would be a placing at around 3.5p for an amount almost the size of the LIND facility, what would have been your reaction? So why is today’s news hunky dory?

And do you seriously buy the “acceleration” cover story? I have seen it deployed so often when cash is tighter than investors either realise or are prepared to admit and a placing has to be done (fair play to bigmj for realising that and seizing the initiative).

Is this placing going to bring the first SWP drill forward to Q1 2019? Or is the real question not simply when the next placing is going to happen?

It will be interesting to see what preemption disapplication authority they ask for at the coming meeting. Just enough to cover this placing or a bit more...?

Bigpecs

It was either something like this or LIND. LK tried masking the reality of the cash burn in the original business by including Steeldrum in those Q3 figures but it was inevitable that he would have to (or be made to) face up to reality at some point. Better sooner rather than later. He is using the traditional “acceleration of growth strategy” excuse, but this is fooling no-one. The trick is to ignore what they guys say in media presentations (and even sometimes in RNSs) and concentrate instead on the figures themselves and what they are saying. To me they are saying that this placing may not be the end of it. Further funding of some sort may be required before the drills start turning in the SWP.

Garnhiem.

It’s just like the production figures - strip out the amount attributable to Steeldrum and what is left? LK could have given two sets of Q3 figures - CERP with and without Steeldrum. He didn’t though. This is not his finest hour.

offerman

I have answered this one so often, but I guess that once more won’t hurt. CERP is on my watchlist and has been for many, in fact eight, years. I am not currently invested and certainly don’t like what I am seeing at the moment, but I have no intention of wasting the time I have spent on CERP - that is why I keep it as a candidate for potential investment (long or short) at the right price and in the right circumstances and that is why I stay involved in the conversation. If, for example, CERP was in the near future to get below 3p but finally start to show signs of a cash burn turning point, I would seriously consider going long.

Do you not think that contrary views are useful? It seems to me that they are needed when I look at some of the ramping here and on ADVFN. Take Edgein on ADVFN, for example. He is adept at telling people what they want to hear but compare the rosy scenarios that he has painted for CERP over time against actual share price performance over time. Seriously, do it. The contrarians have been a lot closer to the mark.

seems to have cottoned on to what is going on here and is possibly, like me, unconvinced by the statement about the fate of the remainder of the LIND Facility. It will be interesting to see where we are in November. See you then.

Alert for this RNS pinged in this morning. Quite appalled by the choice made in this update to mask the the Q3 performance of the original business by giving consolidated figures incorporating the Steeldrum business acquired in Q4, albeit that this was with an effective date in early Q3. This approach hides from the market disappointingly flat production and significant cash burn in the original business during Q3. It would have been a simple matter to give two sets of figures, including and excluding Steeldrum. Is LK turning into NR?

Confounded

I think the Laffer Curve argument is relevant here but I am not sure that the politicians in question have that kind of vision. They will though miss a huge opportunity to create jobs if they fail to see how SPT reform can be used to incentivise investment...

It’s Schachter. Not heard anything yet.

https://www.schachterenergyreport.ca/conference-2018/

J99MES

Seriously?