Member Info for rossannan

LGO-fan

I can think of plenty statements from CERP from not that long ago that you could also cut and paste and that would not look too clever in the light of subsequent events. Beware of folk who tell you what you want to hear, including LK.

IK Best to take a copy of the text before you post it so that you can re-post it if necessary.

HH

Well that is certainly the aim, to offer a persuasive alternative to some of the rampy old nonsense that washes up on here, but I doubt that the share price even notices. What I’m really interested in is why this BB in particular seems so sensitive to skeptical posts and therefore invariably overreacts to them. I suspect that too many of those who are currently invested in CERP are banking end of the rainbow stories and/or sentiment (rather than fundamentals and/or patience) to do it for them. As a result they don’t want word getting around that the emperor might in fact be under-dressed. I would argue that if the fundamentals are right and you are prepared to be patient, sentiment will eventually take care of itself. At the moment it seems to me that the fundamentals are far from right. LK has a chance to do something about that before the LIND Facility expires. If he doesn’t, CAVEAT EMPTOR!

Have a wonderful Christmas, one and all.

faz7475

What difference does it make whether I post or not? Do you think it makes any difference to the share price?

Rugby2015

In this market? What other options, realistically, apart from a placing?

Yes, I agree, LK has all the information at his fingertips but whe have some good clues as what that information is and I will say it again - if LK thinks he can just let the LIND Facility slip through his fingers it seems pretty clear to me that he is not putting shareholders first.

Rugby2015

“Let’s not ‘imagine’ anything but deal with reality in the here and now.”

What the skeptics are broadly arguing is that too many posters on here are “imagining” and avoiding the reality in the here and now. In particular, I am arguing that, with his stated attitude to the gift horse that is the LIND Facility, even LK is avoiding reality (and thereby putting shareholder value at risk).

As I have said before, the figures in CERP’s published accounts illustrate how significant lower WTI over a sustained period can be for CERP - I compared 1H 2018 with 1H 2017:

Averaged realised sales price from Goudron operations in 1H 2018: US$61.17 per barrel, netback per barrel of US$13.13

Averaged realised sales price from Goudron operations in 1H 2017: US$46.28 per barrel, netback per barrel of US$5.69

The indications were that CERP already had a cash burn problem. The above suggests that, even if CERP is receiving a small premium to WTI these days, this is not going to make the cash burn go away. WTI may begin to recover (https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uae-oil-producers-extraordinary-meeting-output-cuts-not-112605011--finance.html?guccounter=1) but not quickly enough for CERP, IMO. LK needs to be upfront about how his initial foray into the SWP is going to be funded, if not by the LIND Facility.

HH

The figures in CERP’s published accounts illustrate how significant lower WTI over a sustained period can be for CERP - compare 1H 2018 with 1H 2017, for example:

Averaged realised sales price from Goudron operations in 1H 2018: US$61.17 per barrel, netback per barrel of US$13.13

Averaged realised sales price from Goudron operations in 1H 2017: US$46.28 per barrel, netback per barrel of US$5.69

But when it comes to Q3, what was the ex-Steeldrum bank balance? LK rendered that update pretty much useless when he decided only to offer the consolidated figures.

So we don’t know what the cash burn was over the course of Q3 but we do know what it was over the course of Q2 ($1.7 million) and we do know the starting point for Q4 (near enough) using the information available - the $1.97m that we know about plus the further $3.22m gross raised via the placing then deducting the $1.25 million used to pay off the Steeldrum loan and allowing for the expenses of the placing, giving us a Q4 starting point of around $3.75m. So what will the EOY cash balance be? $3.25m or more would be encouraging but I am fairly confident that it will in fact be less than $3m, pointing to an end Q1 balance possibly less than $2m. $2m doesn’t take you far in the SWP...

RAMMAN

Instead of name calling, why not join the conversation and explain where folk are going wrong?

Rugby2015

Same old same old, certainly, but that doesn’t make it wrong. As you say, let’s see what the update says, but if I am right about cash burn CERP will not even be able to finance the shallower end of the SWP. The realistic alternative to the LIND Facility is issuing more shares - at what price in this market? If I was a shareholder facing yet more dilution because LK let the LIND Facility slip through his fingers, I would be disappointed in him to say the least. As for M&A, that really is just end of the rainbow stuff at this point in time - CERP has not kept its powder nearly dry enough to do a transformational deal.

faz7475

Don’t be putting all your eggs in one basket though. I was well overweight here in the NR days and paid the price, but that was a valuable lesson that helped me to take my LK profit at just over 6.6p, having got back in at just under 2.7p. It’s not too late to diversify if need be, particularly with some of the opportunities that this market is throwing up. LK may produce a Romper Stomper, but it may turn out to be a Ramper Stamper - no-one knows for certain. I’m sure that in the longer term the CERP share price will be significantly north of there, however many shares are eventually issued, but in the ultra short term I think this could hit 2.5p. If you are not leveraged and happy to ride out the dips, that’s fine, but stay safe. Nothing else matters.

Rugby2015

I admire your optimism but the available information, what there is of it, suggests that you will be disappointed. And, seriously, what is $67,000 per month to have a decent cash buffer in these markets? Worth every cent, IMO.

Bamps21

Ho ho ho! Not sure I can deliver 2.5p for Christmas unless the update appears tomorrow morning. Can’t imagine they would issue it on Monday. One way or the other though, a turning point is coming. Best present LK could give LTHs, IMO, would be to swallow his pride and crack open the LIND Facility. Come early January that option will no longer be available.

HH

The problem may be that CERP is now running out of cap to ex...

Working out the Q4 average price suggests a hint of smoke and mirrors in that Q&A. You could almost imagine that CERP are getting a price designed to keep them paying SPT...

Gibbo1066

You should be rewarded for staying the course - LK is not NR and at some point over the 5 years WTI will without doubt be significantly north of where it is today.

Bamps21

Teenage kicks?

Gibbo1066

Fair enough. If I was you I’d take 3p ahead of the update, particularly at current WTI, and then review everything in the light of the update, but that is not guaranteed to be the correct strategy! Though it is likely to be, IMO.

Gibbo1066

Most companies have a future, better just to ask yourself what the return on your investment is likely to be (the approximate number of shares that you think in will be in issue at your exit point being a relevant consideration).

Is it reasonable to assume, based on last year, that the update will appear this week?

“Impatient sellers and for some they need the cash. Many hoping to get back in again early in the new year at a lower price, my thoughts are they may miss the boat. I am overweight here but am very comfortable with my position here. The team @Columbus_ERP will come good”

Seriously bigmj, I do not doubt that the team @Columbus_ERP will come good in time, but at $46.50 WTI there is surely no rush.