Member Info for rossannan

What’s happening on the 17th?

Stand down, false alarm.

For the avoidance of doubt, that is not a meaningful RNS.

Nice to see WTI a little firmer, even if our focus is on gas right at the moment.

LTID

“And ignore the trolls they must be getting desperate now and remember they never bash bad stocks.” Is it bashing or is it analysis? Remember my Q2 predictions? They were shelved when LK shelved the Q2 update, but taking them down and dusting them off:

“I guess that with not much more than one month to go [07/06] before the Q2 update it is time for Q2 average production and end Q2 cash balance predictions. I reckon we could see something like a 550bopd average and a cash balance around the $1.5M mark, but LK will no doubt be be reserving the right to surprise on the downside!”

And, as it turns out, LK duly did surprise on the downside. No wonder the Q2 update was shelved. Q2 average production was in fact around 520bopd (do the maths) and the ending cash balance was in fact around $1.3M. We sceptics clearly have a much better handle on this than the rampers. Next stop is undoubtedly a raise - probably a placing but maybe an open offer with an excess facility if you are lucky and LK sees some sense.

I have nothing more to say until we see the next meaningful RNS.

Don’t get me started on CERP, but retail conviction, however misplaced, has a lot to do with it. Maybe worth trading once the inevitable placing is out of the way though.

tooldforthat

“Once Safron comes in good...”

45% CoS, remember.

Scarface72

End Q1 cash balance just over $2m - call it £1.65m. End Q2 cash balance £1.05m. Current rate of cash burn suggests an end Q3 cash balance of no more than around £0.5m.

Does anyone on here still believe that Saffron will spud this month?

Hawkspear

I think you missed the massive cash burn.

Camdev

-- Detailed technical work completed during the period by EPI Group, independent geoscience specialists, on the exploration prospectivity of the SWP, allowing the high-grading of the Saffron prospect for drilling in 2H 2019.

-- First SWP prospect (Saffron) chosen with commencement of drilling operations planned for late September 2019 - well targeting un-risked STOIIP of 66 mmbbls (Pmean), with a geological chance of success of 45% and potential development recoverable oil volume of 10 mmbbls.

Simon T

Face value - exactly. In reality a face saving accounting exercise. Mostly tired and largely worthless assets against the background of the current oil price and T&T’s fiscal regime for oilers. Not a bad time to be drilling for gas, in fact!

Is that safe when you are drilling for gas?

Alchemyex

I would say “didn’t” but in any event I have given up posting on the CERP BB until a meaningful (for good or for ill) RNS appears. Current focus is TXP where there is a fair chance of a meaningful (for good or for ill) RNS as early as next week (given that we are now at spud plus 22 days and counting). Smart move by PB to go for his high CoS targets first.

Alchemyex

In what way did I cross the line at CERP? I tried to be fair and honest there too.

Sundayroast

Your abusive post highlights the problem with so many BBs - posters who imagine that anything less than 100% ramp 100% of the time will somehow knock the share price when it is clear that any proposition that was as fragile as that would not be worth investing in in the first place. The reality is that the market is not that interested in the BB musings of random PIs. I could bang on all day about how the funding for the next well after this one is not at all clear or about delayed monetisation or about how catastrophic it would be if this well’s 5% chance of failure came to pass, but the market is not listening. It has already, quite rightly, decided that the question of funding subsequent wells will be more easily answered on the back of success with this well, that it understands the delayed monetisation point and that the 5% chance of this well being a failure is a risk worth taking given the reward that success would bring.

Sundayroast

“Until he finally got his buy in price”

We are all free to post exactly what we believe to be the case. Imagining that what we post has any significant traction on the share price is not clear thinking. Did my posts about the likelihood of a Q2 production disappointment (extrapolated from the information that we already had) have any traction on the share price? Not at all. The only thing that did get any traction on the share price was the RNS that revealed that I was correct. Now that news is out of the way, the upcoming two part drilling result (logs and flow test) seems to offer a significant trading opportunity. Let’s hope that I’m right about that too.

dnd1236

Good luck to us all. Nice to see WTI looking a little cheerier.

looking cheerier.

dnd2136

Like I said, it’s all about retail conviction. Have a look at the CERP (currently 3.4p) LSE BB:

“if we hit both Saffron & Clove, and yes the chances are high, and they both flow at commercial rates, I think that we will see someone come in and buy us up for a pretty big chunk of change, probably no where near the quoted on here 60p figure, but I would guess in the 15-25p range”

“I will sell at around 60p"

“I might even hold for £1 per share if within LK's 5 year plan”

Now that is retail conviction! If CERP could rent that retail conviction out to the likes of TXP and TRIN, CERP would finally have a decent income stream!