Member Info for rossannan

I am not clear whether the RNS on Monday will be the information that they were going to release on Wednesday or just details of what is going to be released when. Anyway, definitely an RNS on Monday and, one way or the other, next week will provide us with a progress report on Coho-1 and Cas-1 and the scheduled operational update. I suspect that next week will be too early for Coho-1 flow rates but I would expect to hear that Cas-1 has spudded and I am certainly hoping to hear that Q3 production stabilised at just over 1800bopd, as planned.

Timing update from PB - RNS on Monday.

Goodbody

The current Government’s rhetoric suggests that we shouldn’t be holding our breath on that one, though happy days if they prove me wrong.

I emailed PB - full update on Coho-1 and Cas-1 on Wednesday (presumably as part of the usual early October operational update).

fuzzpellet

Are you going to Captain Aguero?

I would be interested to hear your thoughts on this morning’s RNS.

Razorman

Unlikely, but even a little movement on SPT would undoubtedly be genuinely transformational.

fuzzpellet

The market’s verdict seems to be that this is not going any further without a tip, so are you assuming that one or more of the usual suspects will oblige between now and Monday? Or do you think that a known known like the spudding of Saffron is going to have a significant impact?

The spudding of Saffron looks like a case of careful what you wish for because where it is going to take you Is to either a 45% CoS or a 55% CoF becoming 100%...

bigmj

Still sticking with your “LK has a plan, there won’t be a placing”?

I have given up trying to send this Question to the Team:

“You have stated that “The UBOT-1 well was drilled in 1936 and flowed oil (207 bbl) from the Lower Cruse formation”. Presumably you mean that UBOT-1 flowed oil at a rate of 207bopd. Is this figure an initial flow rate or is it an average flow rate over a significant period of time?”

It keeps bouncing back to me with an error message. Has anyone else been able to submit a Question to the Team recently?

In the sense that skipping the Q3 update would be less than transparent. Or in the sense that in skipping the Q3 update he would be being transparent (in that his motives would be obvious). You choose.

emilyt16

Maybe a better word to use would have been transparent.

The way in which PB appears to have managed the risk here is by doing the two cheapest wells first which are also the two that pretty much guarantee net pay that is commercial (though that guarantee only applies to the smaller targets at the shallower levels). Coho-1 appears to have also had significant success further down though. By late October/early November PB should have a story that he can have a funding event on the back of. Given that Coho-1 has to be tied in (which will involve significant costs), that it will probably not be monetised until Q2 2020, that monsters like Royston do not come at all cheap and bearing in mind the current oil price, this funding event looks unavoidable. It is nothing to be scared of though, not when it looks as if it will be on the back of success. Contrast CERP, where the bank account appears to be being emptied into their Saffron well, which has a 45% geological CoS. If Saffron does not come in they will be having a funding event on the back of failure.

Z2Z2

You say that every Q.

Tiburn

Yes, solid value at this level but I don’t think it’s correct to say that it is fully funded - realistically some kind of funding event looks likely in the near future, hopefully on the back of success with the first two Ortoire wells.

LTID

Unlike the Q3 update. On the face of it Leo Koot seems to be betting everything on Saffron and leaving no safety margin. Confident or reckless?

PinWiz

No, my employers have given me separate devices for this avatar and my LexLugar208 and MrMagoo31 avatars, so I just need to switch to the device on which the right avatar is logged in.

LTID

That they are not as impressive as you think they are?

faz7475

Well, since you ask, let’s start with cash burn. At the end of 2018 CERP had $2.60M in the bank. At the end of Q1 2019 it had $2.06M in the bank. At the end of Q2 2019 it had approximately $1.30M (£1.053M to be exact) in the bank. Here at the start of Q3 it is unlikely to have much more than $800,000 in the bank. But wait. We have been told that Saffron will cost $800,000. So Leo is going to pretty much empty the bank account into something with a chance of geological (geological!) success of only 45%? What the heck, Leo?

tooldforthat

A bounce for pictures of something that an RNS had already confirmed was underway, pictures that don’t even show the equipment on site?