Member Info for rossannan

Vmax

That is a fair assessment.

is still set making it difficult for every oiler, the good, the bad and the ugly.

Bamps21

What AIM oiler BB doesn’t contain talk about possible interest from the majors? The reality is that, unless you are talking about a company like HUR, it is usually something of a fantasy number. But it is a shame that CERP cannot afford to go after bigger SWP targets than it is. Remember how much CERP once had in the bank, courtesy of Schroders? What happened to all that?

Talking of Leo Koot’s “what happened to...?” file, remember “The Company has submitted a proposed three-year work programme for the concession and we hope to announce the signing of that contract late Q2/early Q3 2019”? This is now Q4.

thechancers

As it happens, your post crossed with mine answering a similar question that was asked by another poster yesterday. As I explained in that post, the short version is that if you invest in AIM O&G as I do, including T&T oilers, CERP has it all, the good, the bad and the ugly (though mainly the bad and the ugly - CERP is arguably the poster boy for the pitfalls of AIM O&G). CERP is a tremendous mental workout for anyone interested in technical issues, financial and accounting issues, BoD behaviours, shareholder behaviours and T&T’s punitive fiscal regime. Once you get to grips with CERP you are better equipped to invest in AIM O&G, including other T&T oilers. And, fortunately, you don’t have to invest in CERP to get this benefit, you just have to be part of the conversation.

I would add that I see CERP as something of a PI trap, which is why I hope that some of the over-exposed LTHs have been de-risking a little by taking 4.8p when it was available or even the 4.5p that was available more recently. I note that Schroders have now reduced their exposure by 1M shares.

trickydickie

Good question. If I had a pound for every time I have answered it on here I would have more in the bank than CERP. Which is not a very high bar, admittedly.

The short version is that if you invest in AIM O&G, including T&T oilers, CERP has it all, the good, the bad and the ugly (though mainly the bad and the ugly - CERP is arguably the poster boy for the pitfalls of AIM O&G). CERP is a tremendous mental workout for anyone interested in technical issues, financial and accounting issues, BoD behaviours, shareholder behaviours and T&T’s punitive fiscal regime. Once you get to grips with CERP you are better equipped to invest in AIM O&G, including other T&T oilers. And, fortunately, you don’t have to invest in CERP to get this benefit, you just have to be part of the conversation.

LTID

So it doesn’t matter that I have repeatedly said that I do not have a position here, short or long, and haven’t had a position since 2017? It would seem that from behind the safety of your avatar you are prepared to accuse people of lying if it keeps the narrative that you are most comfortable with intact.

Disc0verer

In the general context of oil exploration a 45% CoS is, of course, better than the average. So lower risk in that context. But it still implies that failure is more likely than success. In the context of a company as cash-strapped as CERP therefore, you have to ask what Leo Koot is playing at. If the contractors have agreed to be paid in shares we would surely have seen an RNS to that effect by now. So if there is no funding event prior to the Saffron result, Leo Koot is risking a major setback. High risk for cash-strapped CERP, in other words.

NEXUS7 usually posts his pick of the pro-CERP LSE posts on jcgswims’ positives only ADVFN BB. I see though that he has not been around for the last few days so none of your posts have yet appeared on there. Feel free to cut and paste them onto the ADVFN BBs as you see fit.

Disc0verer

“you suggesting the company expect it to have no chance of finding something economic”

What I actually said was that “by the Company’s own admission the chances appear to be that nothing commercial will be found”

Saying that the chances are that nothing commercial will be found is the same as saying that the likelihood is that nothing commercial will be found. The Company is telling us that there is a 55% chance that nothing commercial will be found, in other words that this outcome is more likely than not.

“Your next point on the up hole prospects again are your opinion.”

No, I deliberately put the statement that “The prospectivity of the Upper Cruse and Middle Cruse sands are difficult to judge based on available data” in quotation marks because it is someone else’s opinion!

I have nothing to say about the NPV10 for Cas-1. NPV10s are in general, not just in Saffron’s case, little more than catnip for rampers so I would not deploy one in support of an argument.

When it comes to funding I suspect that LK will dodge the Q3 update in the same way that he dodged the Q2 update. I note your rosy “drill now, pay later” scenario. I guess that it will take a funding event to prove to you that you were wrong there. You may not have long to wait.

Was there ever any doubt that the Ministry would approve the drilling of Saffron? Maybe there was, given that the rig and associated equipment are only now being mobilised to the drilling site. Saffron was identified as a prospect long ago and was being talked about by name back in June (if not earlier) - why has this been such a painfully slow process? Will this RNS give Schroders something to sell a few more into?

Bamps21

In fact Disc0verer has opened up a very interesting topic of conversation. The important distinction between CERP’s Saffron and TXP’s Cas-1 is that Cas-1’s shallower targets, the ones with the 95% CoS, should at least justify the exercise should the deeper target not come in. Saffron’s shallower targets, on the other hand, were not assigned a CoS (“The prospectivity of the Upper Cruse and Middle Cruse sands are difficult to judge based on available data”). So Saffron could be a duster top to bottom. Does that matter when even dusters can eventually prove to have been useful exercises? The problem is that the cash burning CERP appears to be using the last of its cash on Saffron. That looks like potentially poor risk management and makes a funding event ahead of the Saffron result look likely to me (unless, that is, Leo Koot is prepared to take a huge risk). A funding event also looks likely to me in TXP’s not too distant future, but Paul Baay appears to have managed TXP’s risk more effectively than Leo Koot has managed CERP’s and therefore arguably has left himself more room for manoeuvre.

LLL

That is an interesting point. Large holders often need something to sell into. Average days are just too quiet for them to divest on in size without crashing the share price. Schroders appear to have taken advantage of the excitement (justified or not) generated by Wednesday’s RNS and that HotStockRockets tip (which I am assuming appeared on Thursday). As you suggest, they could be prepared to sell into any similar excitement (e.g. Saffron spudding) and, as someone pointed out, can now get rid of a fairly decent chunk before they have to TR-1 again.

Cannot understand why Leo Koot has still not taken the opportunity to monetise all this retail conviction via an Open Offer with an excess facility.

Disc0verer

Read my post again. I made it clear that I was talking about TXP’s “latest oil well”. That is the imminent Cas-1. Not Coho-1. Coho-1 is, as you are clearly aware, a gas well.

I said "And by the Company’s own admission the chances appear to be that nothing commercial will be found". What does that 45% geological chance of success in the Lower Cruse mean, if not that? Are you seriously going to contend that the secondary targets matter a jot?

You quote the NPV10 for the Lower Cruse of $88M. That is one of those figures, a bit like Leo Koot’s £/$500M MCAP, that is just catnip for rampers. Here is a reality check. If Leo Koot was to RNS tomorrow that he is finally admitting that his financial management of CERP has not been the best and that he has decided to down tools and parcel up Bonasse (the whole thing, Saffron, Clove and everything else) for sale on the open market, what do you think he could reasonably expect to get for it? $88M? 45% of $88M? No, a fraction of that. Have a think about why that is the case.

Bamps21

Who knows? Even an initial rate of 200bopd would be trumpeted on here. But what really matters is the rate after one month, three months, six months etc. And by the Company’s own admission the chances appear to be that nothing commercial will be found. Those of us invested in TXP wish we could match the CoS of its latest oil well (95%) with the kind of retail excitement that CERP generates. But if we had to choose, we would not swap our 95% CoS for your 45% CoS. You can keep all your retail excitement. Value will out in the long term.

wraith

On what basis do you imagine that CERP will fourteen bag even if that less than 50% chance comes in and Saffron flows over 200bopd, at least initially?

CaptainSwag

In some ways you could argue that LK should have prioritised the new concession over the SWP for the simple reason that the new concession does not involve SPT.

Qnard

That is simplifying things a bit, you have to admit.

Scarface72

That is a fair point. Early doors in the CERP story we heard a lot about LK at Taqa Bratani. It all sounded great, but if you have not worked your way through the Taqa Bratani accounts at Companies House, from inception to the present day, the full story may surprise you.

Artist: Metallica
Album: Metallica
Released: 1991

faz was quoting from “My Friend Of Misery” and I was quoting from “Wherever I May Roam”. Check it out, it was the last of the great Metallica albums.

tooldforthat

Really? On what basis? “The Saffron well’s primary target - Lower Cruse – has a 45% geological chance of success”. By the way, is a geological chance of success the same as a chance of commercial success? I don’t think so.

Saffron: high impact exploration or run of the mill Bonasse appraisal? Before anyone gets too excited they might want to remind themselves of the Lower Cruse production history of GY-667. Maybe the LC is a different animal here in Bonasse. Maybe. I suspect that Leo Koot is quite happy to let folk conflate the potential of deeper SWP prospects such as the Herrera with what can reasonably be expected from the Lower Cruse at this location. I wonder if Leo Koot is cynical enough to play the same kind of games with initial flow rates as Neil Ritson? Time will tell.