George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Well well!! I can't fathom this out at all. I was expecting a load of "cloaked trades" to emerge this morning that were delayed reporting, but that does not appear to have happened. The stock opened yesterday, traded just over 2300 shares and dropped like stone and all the later trades were BUYS!!! Doesn't make sense. I can only suggest that there were some very big trades that have not appeared as yet because the MMs are using their discretion not to declare them immediately. Furthermore, it appears that tomorrow is the last day for the exercise of the 7mn or so warrants issued in 2020. Strand Hanson have already exercised theirs. I am assuming that Peterhouse have not, because there has not been an announcement that they have. I can't believe they would just let them expire with profit on the table, maybe they have been shorting them over the past few months through an MM (MMs don't have to report shorts) and the exercise will allow them to give the stock back to the MM who helped, thereby squaring its books. Given there were still around 4mn warrants out there by my calculation, that could explain why the stock has been weak over the last couple of months when really nothing has changed!!!
LEX has very supportive shareholders, has a sugar daddy (Creasy) Lots of cash, a huge potential asset in the form of the South African stuff... what's not to like? I am going to look down the back of my sofa set and see what I can dig up. We all thought (with the exception of Mr. Long) that this was cheap at 6p.... at 3.75p its totally nuts!!! Have to credit Mr. Long for holding off though, maybe he'll be a buyer now??!!
the market for natural resources has been absolute c**p for a couple of years now, but the action in lithium over the past couple of months may serve as a reminder that there is value in the mining sector. we've had fun and games in oz with liongate, albemarle and the han**** lady. just today atlantic lithium rejected an offer pitched with a 60% premium. our own shareholder, mark creasy is cashing out his holding in azure lithium and selling out to sq. and guess what, the lithium price is still drifting down, despite the excellent outlook for demand. yet the gold price remains close to its all time high and diddlysquat is happening to gold miners.
maybe the lithium market is the trying to tell the wider natural resources sector that there is serious value out there. time will tell.
Why the market is so dismissive of this share is beyond me. Its just been announced that Azure Lithium, in which Creasy has a 14% stake, is being bought by SQM of Chile for A$1.6bn. That's 1,200% upside since the beginning of the year. They are paying cash. SQM is a major Lithium player from Chile. I can't even see that they have a JORC compliant resource though Azure says that it has a target of 100-120mn tons of Li2O at a grade of 1.5%. Not a bad stash. And Azure hasn't even broken ground on a plant yet. It really is an extraordinary deal....
But the point here is that Creasy has yet again proved that he is more than capable of identifying world class resources. This time in Lithium. He obviously has faith in LEX management and the way the deal is structured, it means that Creasy is committed to putting in MORE cash once certain landmarks are reached. Why this stock isn't trading at 15-20p already is beyond me!!
If your boots are not full of LEX yet, they should be!!!
BEEs come in two forms, leeches and contributors. The Leeches are all ANC lackeys out for what they can steal off unsuspecting investors. We are lucky to have a very serious one.... They have a reputation for being hands on investors and having the right contacts to make it possible to get things done. Yet more good news, anyone who is not filling their boots at these levels 1) doesn't know the story, 2) has their boots full already, or 3) has a mental impairment of some description.
Scarlet, agree, a bit odd, but now we have a report by WH Ireland, and they have HNWs they deal with. It takes time to get an AIM listed explorer onto the radar of institutions. But Two cents rightly points out, this is a medium to long term play, its a 10 to 20 bagger from here over 2 to 3 years. Now that the deal has been done and they have access to all the data, I am sure that we will be hit with lots of interesting info. Also, I would bet my bottom dollar that management has whacked a letter straight off to Harmony asking how the Jelani JV can be processed, something they couldn't do before the deal was formally consummated!! This alone can unlock 3mn oz of JORC reserves, not to mention the mere 33mn or so waiting for us potentially at Kroonstadt!!
Don't forget, Nealon and Olivier have history in SA... and that counts, especially when dealing with a fusty old major like Harmony. Harmony are losing money on a cash basis at this Target mine. Their grade is 3.6g/tonne. The JV is over 5g?tonne. Seems that Harmony is doing a very poor job of managing this mine. Lots of potential upside.
I am rubbing my hands with anticipation. Yet more chances to pick up LEX stock cheap from those who really don't know what they've got in their hands... Ohhhh!!! Joy!!!!
OK so now we start to get to the sharp end of business. The acquisition of White Rivers is completed. Yes, there is a bit of dilution to come, with around 10% at this stage. However, my guess is that by the time the next lot of shares are issued to Creasy, the share price will be a lot higher, therefore dilution will be less. But remember, as I have said on numerous occasions on this forum, if I am giving up say 30% of LEX to get a world class partner like Mr. Creasy on board with a potential uplift in reserves from just over 220K oz to over 37mn oz (16,000%!!!), frankly, what's not to like? Its also worth noting that Mr. Creasy has injected a further GBP100k into the mix in a small private placement. Those naysayers who thought that Creasy is just washing his hands of WRE are sadly mistaken.
This a a truly transformational deal and could turn our little explorer into a major player in gold production with some of the largest reserves in the world. I am sure that now we have acquired the assets, talks will commence with Harmony Gold re the Jelani JV at the Target mine, which, according to their annual report, only has 4 years of reserves left. This could give us nearly 3mn oz of JORC reserves very quickly.... Watch out everyone.... The game is on. Expect further announcements as to drilling programs and Harmony JV updates sooner rather than later... And don't forget, we have SHALLOW gold in all our concessions except the Harmony JV, but that is not an issue because at the Target Mine, all the infrastructure is already in place!!
I tried to do a call option on LEX. The broker said he had to borrow the stock first so they were covered. Well guess what, it didn't work. Couldn't place the trade. On a slightly different note, we're still waiting for the completion of the SA deal, which will give us control of all that data that Creasy collected over the years. I expect after the announcement, we should see a steady stream of tasty news about geology, drilling programs etc etc. I am still filling my boots up when I can find stuff in the sofa set..... hence my brainwave to do a "call" option....Onwards and upwards!!
You only have to look at the trading pattern of the last couple of weeks to see that something is afoot here. Big blocks of stock (well big for LEX anyway!!) trading without an indication as to whether the trades are buys or sells (often presented in grey on this site) and loads of them are delayed reporting, even in the following day or after hours. This has all the hallmarks of an institution, or at least a savvy HNWI buying in a measured manner to get the best average price possible. Accumulation is definitely taking place.
The burning question is by who? The most obvious candidate would be Mr. Creasy, (or his corporate vehicle, Yandal) though its also possible that the shares not placed with "friends and family" are being hoovered up by an AIM fund or a smaller companies fund; it may even be the "gnomes of Bangkok"! . In any case, it seems that either way, we should not be at all surprised to see a TR1 filed in the not too distant future.....someone's got an eye for extremely good value when they see it!!
It really is an issue here in terms of market transparency. Why MMs have the right to delay reporting of trades is beyond me, especially as they often use it to disguise short positions. However, in addition to this, there is also the issue of where all this stock is coming from? Look at the volumes just around 2pm yesterday. In this case, it seems that whoever the buyer is, wants to cover his or her tracks, there have been many delayed trades since last week. Maybe there is an AIM fund coming in here. The start of institutional involvement in LEX? Given the potential size of this company's South African assets (billions of $$$!), that really should not be a surprise...
I am with you sjh.... Someone just aggressively bought around 2.5% of LEX, so they've stopped for the time being, but the good news is that they will have mopped up much of the stock from the placement that didn't go to "friends and family" so to speak. That can only be good news.... removes a potential overhang...
1) Why all this talk about the website saying LEX operates in the USA? They can't say they operate in SA, because officially, they don't exist there.... YET!! Which is precisely why one should be buying the stock!!
2) We are just waiting for the official stamp of approval in the form of a share transfer or WRE. The biz re-organiser has accepted the offer from LEX, LEX has raised the cash recently to mount a drilling campaign..... THIS IS HAPPENING.
3) The fact that the market so far has chosen to ignore this is one of the reasons we invest in stock markets!! They ARE imperfect, sometimes there actually is a magic money tree, and LEX at current levels is one of these. Buy while stocks last!!
4) As for the comments intimating that "the billionaire wants out". Sorry but I don't buy that for a minute. He already stated years ago that he wants to list WRE, he has got his wish with this deal. He will end up with up to 30-35% of LEX and won't have to lift a finger because a tried and trusted management team is in place already, Olivier and Nealon, who have a track record in adding value to investors in Southern Africa.
5) in the meantime, at the risk of repeating myself, we, potentially, the long suffering LEX investors, have potentially increased our reserves by 16,000% in exchange for dilution of maybe 40% if you don't take part in any of the placements like the most recent one!!
Sorry, but, like the old broken record.... What's not to like? And yes, I am pretty sure we will see an announcement soon that the WRE deal is done and dusted. I am pretty sure that this will be the beginning of a major roll!! Strap in boys and girls!!
Frankly Genius, I am surprised that the market is still doubting that the deal is done and dusted. The only thing that they are waiting for, is for BDO, the business re-organiser, to complete the transfer of the shares in WRE to LEX. LEX has the cash, the creditors are being paid off and the offer that LEX made to the creditors has been accepted by BDO. I agree that a certain amount of caution maybe warranted on the basis of "its not done till its done" scenarios, but I would be begging, borrowing and stealing to buy this stock at current levels!! Its insane.
Hi OAPK, we know from the deal announcement that there is potential dilution of up to 30% from the CREASY/WRE acquistion, and maybe they have to sell a few more shares to fund exploration for up to 40mn oz, yes, 40 MILLION OUNCES!! Frankly, do I care about 50% dilution? Not on my nelly.... Reason? What are we getting in exchange? Potentially 40mn oz vs the 220k or so we have in hand in the Carolinas. We have just acquired an asset that potentially has 18,000% more gold in it and could end up being a new gold field. Don't forget that you can always buy more shares in the market at these levels, slightly below the recent capital raise price, that would prevent dilution, and you would be getting stock at a cheaper price than the "Gnomes of Bangkok"!!
So for my money, who gives a damn about 50% dilution if we get an 18,000% uplift in reserves? Surely we are splitting hairs here. Also agree with genius that confirmation that the WRE asset acquisition is completed will support the price. Its a slam dunk anyway. Its in the power of the Business Reorganiser to grant this and it has already accepted LEX's offer, which LEX has already raised money off the back of. Its happening!! And its crazy cheap!!
Actually its Nealon who is the Witwatersrand expert among this new configuration of WRE/LEX. Nealon was involved with Aquarius Plats and Sylvania Plats and if you google him, you will see he has great knowledge of the geology of the area. I reckon that's why Creasy injected his assets into LEX, to capitalise on the South Africa knowledge bank already in place there.
As to ounces, I'll be happy with a million or so... after all, SA gold is alluvial in the Wits, you find a bit, you're likely to find much more. But agree that the more the merrier.
Yes, the price reaction after a very successful premium capital raise is disappointing! However, if you look at the fine print in the announcement of the deal, we can actually learn quite a lot and take heart from it. In particular the take up of shares by shareholders we know own a large portion of the company, the "Gnomes of Bangkok". The very fact that they seem to have taken up half the issue (that we know about) is very telling. Either that, or they are suicidal lunatics. Chairman Ed Nealon also converted his debt into equity. So has Creasy. Why would he do that if he were not 100% confident in the asset that LEX has just bought, especially given the fact that he is supposed to be something of an expert in the Witwatersrand by all accounts. What is not mentioned in the sub text is that there are probably quite a few smaller, but significant shareholders who also took up shares in the placement too. So my guess is that there is quite a bit to look forward to.
1) We are also owed the results from the exploration work that went on at the Argo concession in the Carolinas which was done before the deal was announced. 2) Now that the deal is confirmed and money successfully raised, you would think that it is probably about time for the house broker to release an updated report. It will be interesting to see what their new target is going to be..... 3) There will doubtless be announcements in the near future about details of the drilling program in South Africa.
Anybody who bought the shares in the placement expecting to make a killing in the short term is going to be disappointed. However, I reckon it is true to say that if a smallish portion of the stock was placed by Peterhouse and WH Ireland to punters, it may well be them selling off the stock and hanging on the the warrants which have real value with a 3 year maturity!! On the other hand, I can't see many holders wanting to dispose of their newly acquired stock at a loss which they would be right now. It is reasonable to assume that 5.3-6.0p may become an important support level, especially as it was a resistance level on the way up.
Patience is a virtue, hang tight and pick up more from those silly enough to sell.
Well well, whatever my opinion re BRICS CBDC, LEX never ceases to amaze. The core shareholding group and the BOD always seem to want to extend a helping hand, even in these markets. Unlike one or two cautious individuals who still seem to be sceptical as to what a bargain LEX has just acquired, they are further piling in there and supporting management to the hilt. Not only that, the placement was done at a premium!! Albeit a relatively small one.
So, looking at the purposes of the deal, and what they are going to do with the funds, it is pretty obvious that most of it will be spent on South Africa given potential amount of ounces up for grabs there, over 35mn! However, its also a fair bet that the company will not want to lose its interests in the Carolinas and will spend whatever is required there too keep and expand the JORC compliant resource. Longer term though, one has to ask the question whether LEX will stay in. Proving up between 500K and 1mn oz in the USA will take up just as much management time as proving up 35mn+ oz (or more, heaven forbid?) in South Africa. I would not be surprised if management decide to maximise the value of the Carolina properties and consider selling them, maybe to Romarco, the owners of the Haile mine which isn't too far away from our JKL spread. But that is all in the future.... I reckon all the attention will be on the South African assets which I still can't believe they have acquired for the price they have!!!
Looks like LEX has come up trumps again, without the help of Donald!!
Frankly, I am not sure anyone will really give a toss about a BRICS CBDC. The main reason is that the participants are all either flawed democracies or autocracies. If the central banks of all these countries are under the thumb of their respective ruling parties, which they are, it would be impossible for a sane human to trust them. However, it has to be said that there are many insane people who believe and live the crypto dream, perhaps they would be silly enough to compound their errors by backing an initiative hatched out of cryptomania last year, just before the bottom fell out of that market. Accept that CBDC may be backed by gold held by BRICS central banks, but would you trust this lot; Putin, Xi, the ANC. Modi (maybe) or Da Silva (maybe, but he is a socialist so has rose tinted specs!!). Its a tall order.
Markets, fortunately, are NOT perfect. If they were, it would be no fun investing in stocks because in a perfect market everyone would have info on everything at the same time, which of course, is totally unrealistic!! Hence, if the market is pooh pooh-ing what looks like an amazing deal, just pounce on it and get the stock bought.. It really is very silly where this stock is valued.. Thank heaven for imperfect markets.... much less boring that perfect ones, more opps for making super returns!! Bring it on LEX..
So We're all done and dusted. Agree with your points SJH, and I am sure that we will get the info that you are asking in the fullness of time. Lot's of planning will have gone into this, where to drill, how to drill, etc etc., in advance of the actual takeover. I am hoping that they will hit the ground running, though looking at the share price to day you would not believe it...
Well, its make your mind up day today. The fact that we had an RNS announcement out stating that the 3 major shareholders controlling over 50% of the stock have already irrevocably voted in favour of the deal, together with, I am sure, may of the directors and other insiders, really puts the outcome of today's Shareholder's Meeting beyond doubt. Also, I reckon SJH had it right a week or so ago, the key to making easy money out of this amazing deal in South Africa will be to drill the shallowest prospects first and prove up the JORC compliant ounces. Given the highly predictable nature of gold reefs in the Witwatersrand and the drilling that has already taken place on the property. This is not going to be difficult.....
As and when they are proved up, invite the majors in to either buy out the discoveries or sort out a "farm in" arrangement where the major provides the capital and LEX takes a profit share... Money for old rope, very few employees, easy to manage... I am thoroughly looking forward to hanging onto my position, and , if the inevitable capital raising terms look attractive, getting some more on board. We all know how tightly held this stock is. Being able to bag a chunk "off market" looks like a sensible play to me..... Also worth bearing in mind that Australia's most successful mining entrepreneur also thinks in the same way. He's got options that will and up with him owning 30%+ of LEX. I wouldn't bet against him.... happy to have Mr. Creasy as a partner.....