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I wouldn’t base any decisions around the key dates, this stock has the potential to rise or drop without any news. There was no new regarding 10 per cent increase Friday. I think 25th key date as they’ll have to give some kind of update on SOA and complaint volumes with results, fingers crossed will be positive. But I would expect some movement ahead of the results as investors won’t want to leave it to 25th as any positive update could send the SP up significantly. I’ve found with this SP once it rises you’ll never get in at a decent price. It goes up in an instant and the spread on HL platform is usually massive so if your confident I’d buy now.
What worries me is ai’ve been doing some analysis and companies that have had an SOA approved previously and they’ve all gone into administration!
Granted mainly payday lenders but does anybody know of a company that has had an SOA approved and actually gone on to thrive? Need some comfort, I’m 50 per cent down and my cars in for its MOT next week!
I wish I’d sold in August when it got to 18p but stupidly held on. Watching it drop ever since but I’m well down so may as well hold on now.
I can’t see much hope currently but then the FCA were probably never going to back it. Just have to hope we get some good news one day.
Seems to be following a similar pattern to Intu!
Totally agree. Very difficult to assess the creditworthiness of both customer and guarantor. Might be prudent to wait until more clarity on lockdown easing. That being said their existing book is eroding by the day so they can’t not lend forever.
Suspect they are in negotiations with FCA arguing the detail of SOA. It won’t be approved with amends, that’s inevitable. I’m holding as the news will come and it will zoom or balloon
Me too. Bought at 15p. Just hanging on now. Don’t listen to the 80p by year end merchants, they said the same last year! I’d be happy to get to 20p. Personally I think announcement on lending will boost share price but only temporary, there’s an argument to say the longer they hold out the better as we having seen the full impact of Covid yet on delinquency rates. It will surface late 2021 when all government support/payment holidays end
I think the worry with Amigo is same as Wonga, Quickquid who both went under due to compensation liabilities.
They need the SOA to be approved in some capacity. If that gets declined then there is every chance they’ll go under, hence the SP. I’m invested at 15p so I need it to succeed but I am not as optimistic as others. If it was a slam dunk it will survive it wouldn’t be 8p.
There’s a better chance of predicting what Tier you’ll be living in next January than trying to predict this share.
I’ve been in since June and it’s been a rollercoaster. I’ve read all kinds of projections for SP from 20p to 2.50. What I would say is apart from a doom mongers saying it would go bust be end of year, not one person predicted it would be 9p! So basically nobody has a clue, could go any which way. You may as well invest in the 3.20 at Kempton then back this share.
Well if they don't start lending in Q1 the business will cease to exist. You can’t run a shrinking book forever. Apart from marketing all the other overheads remain. Reckon announcement in New Year. I’m still confident they will come through but could take a long time before they become profitable.
Doubt we’ll see anything material this year. They’ve had as many RNS announcements as Lloyds this month! But at least the SP is holding up, just need that golden RNS detailing complaints stabilising or/and a return to lending in New Year.
Surely with their loan book reducing every day there comes a point that without new lending the business ceases to exist. Looking at results the loan book reduced by 34% to 485m. So your talking 20.5m a month. That can’t continue, if they don’t come out with something by Jan then I’d be very worried as they’ll just be left with the absolute dross on their books shortly.
Totally agree, long term investment now. I think SP will not do a great deal until some concrete news on complaints, new lending etc. I’m still confident that this company can survive and prosper as their is a market for their product which will only increase as major banks tighten their lending criteria. If you want short term gain then trade in oil stocks Tullow, Premier, their up and down daily. I don’t see Amigo falling significantly now though as I think the profit takers will have gone and it’s just mugs like me now who bought in at 15p playing the waiting game!
What concerns me is the loss provision. It was centred around complaints but the default rate will increase significantly now payment holidays are ending. We’ve seen Virgin impacted by this today and their asset book is a lot healthier than Amigo’s. Hope this is already priced in but anything can happen with this share. I’ve given up predicting, need 15p to break even
I imagine they are thinking if we turn this around we are made! When you look at Cineworld laden with debt yet SP shooting up surely Amigo has massive potential. The market for their product is there, new board, just need a stabilisation of complaint volumes and this will go to the moon! Maybe......
Q - do you think the Q2 results are already baked into SP? The last RNS was vague on a few main points, complaints volume, loss provision etc.
So what does everybody think the loss provision will be? 160m, 200m?
I think if no clarity on loss provision, restart of lending then it will bomb. If loss provision is only marginally higher than 150m and lending is confirmed as starting Q1 2021 then it will rise big time.
I’ve given up trying to dip in and out of this share. In it for the long run now. Need it to get back to 15p to break even.
The board changes are positive as shows intent. I’m hoping no surprises in the results and a firm provision number rather than ‘at least x amount’.
My concern with loss provisions is their always optimistic! As for CMC’s, with PPI ending all they have it this so I don’t expect the volume of complaints to reduce. Lending again in 2021 hopefully but I think every company is nervous at lending currently so delaying it is probably prudent.
Still think this one could go either way but I’m in too deep now!