The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Well yes, there is that too!
It seems one option that is not being considered is the potential to liquidate Kibo once the three coal project assets have been sold off and then return the money to us long-suffering shareholders. If memory serves correctly, the value of those assets is down on the books as about £ 28 million. If that price was realised, it would mean about 1p per share could be returned to shareholders. If more is wangled from the purchasers, then that could be more per share. The coal resources alone would have some value in an overall negotiation.
As Jax pointed out, selling the coal to power projects basically sets Kibo back to zero, despite of the potential for these new 'renewable energy projects'.
It can be argued that Kibo is at the stage it is after a very long time 'battling away', one has to argue how much longer would it be before the company sees any returns and returns which could be passed on to shareholders?
I'd consider that following the sale of the coal-to-power projects, liquidation and passing the proceeds back to shareholders should be an option.
Try creating polygons between the drill holes based on the halfway distance between each hole and then using that polygon to give you an area for each mineralised intersection within each drill hole. You can then apply the thickness and grade to each area and use an SG of 1.5 which was quoted by NvS an Eon ago to give you a tonnage x grade figure for each polygon. It's very crude, non-Jorc compliant but it will give you an 'order of magnitude figure' for tonnage, grade and contained copper that you are seeking...
But it is getting to be agony waiting for it all!
I still wish they'd decide on the spelling: is it Bordesley or Bordersley???
Anyway, it still seems slightly academic as there doesn't appear to be any change to the planning documentation so either they have got special dispensation to withold information on the grounds of commercial confidentiality or nothing has been done to get the planning conditions discharged.
Another thing: they suggest that if they raise the power output from 5 MW to 7.5 MW, the increase in monthly income will be £12,500. That implies basically a monthly income of £25,000 for a 5MW site. At that figure, the £2.9 million capital cost would take about 10 years to pay off (without accounting for operating costs and interest on the debt repayments).
But for us Kibo investors, it doesn't really count for anything (even if we do own 55% of MAST). And that project is no where near over the line. The stationary SP this morning appears to reflect that. Perhaps come back to us when the generators are plumbed in and someone is about to switch them on!
Despite proclamations to the contrary, there really seems to be no planning of contingency with this BoD. It has become almost routine now that they require more cash to complete the plant upgrade and mine optimisation. Whilst issues occur that management can't necessarily predict, it just seems that very little is actually under control and the BoD keep on requiring more funds to see this project through to completion. I can't help but agree that the tie-in with Teichmann seems to indicate a desire to take this private and then they can carry on at their own leisure (and profit). It's a shame because the numbers (i.e. production / revenue versus costs) seem good. You just have to wonder where it is all going for them to keep on requiring more cash.
In other words, OPTI: "half of our current market capitalisation value is currently due to the 23.1% shareholding we have in SBTX"!!
I'm not sure I would have drawn attention to that fact if I was OPTI but there you go...! Roll on the next SBTX RNS and then hopefully we'll double the value of OPTI at the same time!
Comparing and contrasting this NCCL RNS with Kibo's last reference to Mozambique, it would appear that Kibo actually have a lead in Moz over NCCL! And I don't dispute the issue of base loads....!
Black and CF points taken but I'd still argue that if Kibo really wants to go down the renewable route (in Africa), it should start looking at solar / wind / wave etc. projects to incorporate into the mix. There's plenty of scope for it. Ironically I looked on the EDM (Moz) website yesterday and they have just issued a pre-qualification notice for a company to supply 30MW / 40 MW of solar capability so the projects are out there...Anyway, we'll see where this goes...
I'm still trying to figure out at what point burning waste or syngas derived from (plastic) waste is 'renewable'. It's still burning something with carbon in it and gives off CO2.
However, it's well-known that S.A. is short of electricity so no doubt there's a market. It'll be another plate for LC to spin and then spin off.
Fingers crossed it can go somewhere but in the meantime, expect a raise and yet more dilution to fund the exercise. Given that, it continues to feel like it'll be another 10 years before I see the SP get to my break-even bail-out of 1.5 p....
The investor call link is on the arcminerals.com website. Here's the link:
https://youtu.be/6gxQqtWPMas
It'll keep LC in sandwiches for the next six months whilst all the time continuing to add to the hopeless dilution.
Mathurin, I've been coming to the same conclusion. I think potential success may now be factored in to the price and that as you say, perhaps allow for another 20% or so on the next good news. However, I am also of the opinion that assuming not too much goes wrong and that the other research lines prove successful, we could perhaps be looking at a £1 billion market cap. company in the next 5 years or so ....
Technically, an investor call can't divulge any information that hasn't already been released to market so perhaps we can expect another RNS before next Thursday and the conference call will elaorate on this? Who knows?!
IMHO the problem being increasingly faced by Kibo now with respect to the African projects is that they are taking ages to come into fruition because of both covid and the time it usually takes to get things done (not that it's really that much quicker in the UK when you account for obtaining planning permission for major schemes). Whilst time ticks on, everything in the 'West' (Europe, UK, and increasingly, the US) and ultimately where a lot of the project funding potential comes from, is changing. The 'West' has moved out of favour of investing in coal projects and larger investment houses or organisations are actively encouraging the move from investing in coal. Even China has recognised this.
Hence, whilst the speed of getting the African projects across the line is mind-numbingly slow, the rest of the world is racing on at a tremendous rate and looking at alternative sources of energy supply to coal. So the African projects could in effect, be out of date before they've got their approvals.
There's obviously the issue of coal's ability to supply a base load for the short / medium term whilst other technologies are developed or adopted but it also appears by some reports that renewables such as wind, solar and wave generation are now far cheaper than coal-fired schemes to finance and set up.
As a geologist with considerable experience in coal, it's a bit tough for me to say all this! However, I increasingly believe that Kibo really needs to refocus the African projects to have a greater emphasis on renewables such as solar. There is plenty of scope for this as there's generally loads of sun and a lot of space in the countries where the projects are located. I think if the company could bring one such project in, it could probably still let the coal projects 'tick away' quietly in the background.
As for the latest 'renewable' energy projects in the UK: whilst we don't have the details yet, I'm not sure at what point burning waste to generate electricity suddenly became a truly 'renewable' source of energy. It's certainly not carbon neutral which is what many governments seem to be looking for right now.
Despite recent rises, as a LTH, I am still a large 5-figure sum down here and continue to hang in hoping that the share price will one day rise above my 1.4 p average! But nothing the BoD seem to do, including the MAST IPO, inspires me to think this will be any time soon. But as ever, I continue to live in hope!
Joe Biden is due to spell out the US's plans for reducing emissions. Could be a good thing for SNT's new subsidiary over there...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-56837927
The RNS is good news, all bar the delay to completion of the plant which, by the sounds of it will result in a more complete job anyway.
Just by way of demonstrating the estimated value here from the results presented for Q1:
Value of production Q1: 4004 carats x US$446 = US$ 1,785,784
Cost of production (using US$ 220 / carat, previously published): 4004 x US$ 220 = 880,880
Value of 4 large diamond sales = US$ 381,000 assumed production cost in with the 4004.
Total revenue from production (before tax, debt repayments etc. etc. ) = US$1,285,904. GBP = £925,111.
(Gross) Value per share: 7p
On the Q1 sales figures.... ;-(
There's a lot of detailed explanations and seemingly well-informed discussion here on the politics and potential strategy of it all but the RNS is really saying ARCM is potentially that little bit closer to getting its US$50 million out of Casa and that that should add around 3p to the share price!
Despite my geological interest in this, being an LTH and still out of pocket from the Ortac days, that's really my main interest!
I may be over-thinking this but the RNS places a lot of emphasis on describing the immune system and the microbiome's ability to moderate or improve the immune response. As we have discovered over the last year, one aspect of covid-19 is its ability to cause the immune system to go into overdrive and start attacking the body - the auto-immune response.
You have to wonder and ask the question whether there is potential to extend the developments and research beyond the skin and into methods of helping to relieve certain covid symptoms?