ABSOLUTE MONSTER5 Jul 2025 23:15
SWC's share price could increase by 3.5x in just 10 weeks (maybe even as high as 7x). Here's how...
On Tuesday's Twitter Space
@Croesus_BTC
mentioned that in the future most of the cash SWC raise will come via the new subscription agreement (or what I like to call the Smarter ATM). I've been so impressed by the amount of cash raised via the institutional book build that I've overlooked how good the Smarter ATM could be. I've run some numbers to understand roughly how much the Smarter ATM could raise over the next 10 weeks and what that could do to the share price…
Here's an example of a base case example of how much cash could be raised over the next 10 weeks:
Base case assumptions:
• Daily volume between UK and US will be 8M shares (since OTC listing launched, average has been 9M shares)
• Maximum 20% of daily volume can be sold
• Shares sold at average price of £4
• 40% of trading days are up days where Shard are allowed to sell shares
Calculation of how much Smarter ATM would raise in 10 weeks: 8M volume × 20% × £4 average share price × 40% up days × 5 days a week × 10 weeks = £128M
In the base case I've assumed institutional book builds will raise £80m over the next 10 weeks (in reality since IPO, SWC have raised roughly £100m). Adding this to the amount raised via the Smarter ATM and the current NAV of £100m, gives a total NAV in 10 weeks of £308m.
Assuming a 6x mNAV multiple, would give a market cap of £1.85bn which would be a 2.3x increase in share price from here. The Smarter ATM and institutional bookbuild would raise enough cash to buy 2,600 bitcoin, giving us a total treasury of roughly 3,800 bitcoin.
From the graphic, you can see that in the bull and "doing okay" scenarios, the numbers get much higher. For example, in the "doing okay" scenario, the market cap would be £2.76bn which is roughly a 3.5x increase in share price.
I think I've been fairly cautious in my calculations. The average share price that shares are sold at under the Smarter ATM could well be much higher. The cash raised via institutional book builds could be a lot higher too seeing as we're now able to raise £40m in one go. And I'm only assuming a 6x mNAV. If we get to a 12x mNAV (which is still arguably conservative), then you can double all the share price increases, so potentially the share price could 7x over the next 10 weeks in the "Doing Okay" scenario. That would be £20 a share in 10 weeks.
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