RE: An extension of talks looks more and more likely.16 Mar 2025 10:27
Yes, even considering the current 40p share price, I still believe a potential takeover offer could land in the 240p to 260p range, and here’s why:
1. Massive Premiums in Takeovers Are Not Unusual
Sidara's last offer in 2024 was 230p per share, significantly higher than the current 40p market price.
In takeover scenarios, bidders often pay a huge premium over the current price if they believe the company has strong long-term value.
If the market has priced Wood Group so low (40p), it likely reflects uncertainty, financial struggles, or short-term pessimism, rather than a true assessment of its strategic value.
2. Sidara’s Renewed Interest Signals Confidence
Sidara wouldn’t return to the table if they didn’t see value in Wood Group.
Their previous valuation was over £1.5bn, meaning they likely believe the company is still worth that amount.
A lowball offer (e.g., 100p or less) would likely be rejected, especially since Wood Group’s assets, contracts, and expertise remain intact.
3. Debt & Refinancing Complications
Wood Group's debt situation and refinancing efforts could influence the final bid price.
If Sidara wants to acquire them and absorb/restructure the debt, they might push for a lower offer.
However, offering something too low (e.g., 100p or less) could make it unattractive to shareholders, especially those who were holding from much higher levels.
4. Possible Shareholder Pushback
Many institutional investors held on through the previous 230p bid and might still demand a strong premium.
Accepting a 100p-150p range would be a massive loss compared to previous levels.
My Prediction:
If Sidara wants a quick deal, they might test a 150p-180p offer, given the 40p current price.
If Wood Group negotiates hard (or if there’s another bidder), we could still see a 240p-260p range, since that aligns with Sidara’s last serious valuation of the company.
The final price will depend on whether Wood Group can convince Sidara that its long-term value remains intact.
➡ Most likely scenario: If Sidara is serious, I think they'll start low (150p-180p) but might have to raise it closer to 200p-250p to win over shareholders.
Again this was chatgpts opinion (in asked it to take into account current sp.) and not trying to sway as my personal opinion is around 85 to 95p . Dyor etc etc