Member Info for RNSTranslator

Austin14 you're deluded.
"WN is guaranteed. "
It isn't guaranteed, its being drilled 2.5km away. If its guaranteed why are they drilling the well?, why not just test the previous well to see if it flows commercially?
you also say "Partners very wealthy, as the main percentage holder has forked out considerable sums of money, they are showing considerable confidence either way."
Who's actually paying for this well to be drilled (and the last well?) Answer: Only Reabold and UJO, and in fact almost all the money came from their shareholders:
Rathlin took money (£16mm) from RBD's who got (£24mm) from their shareholders, and then RBD then also picked up Humbers share of the well costs.
UJO took money from its shareholders to pay for this. How much of their own money have the executives of either company put into those placings?

UJO execs - £50k out of £5mm all from JO'F, followed by £25k later from JO'F. - Total £75k out of £5mm - 1.5%
RBD execs- £0 out of £24mm placing, but SW/SO bought £20k/£60k after the placing.- Total £80k out of £24mm - 0.33%
If you're going to spout nonsense, at least check that its credible...

"£5,000,000 needed to get them through what exactly? You must be a ******".
Says Mr Investment..
They've already said what they plan to do, and that what isn't funded....
1: Pay the £2.08mm due on Wressle production, due Oct/Nov.
2: Drill Biscathorpe Sidetrack - Next Year or When EDR have the money... placement is due there too.
3: Keddington Drilling - see above
4: Pay Salaries
5: Other Stuff
Oh and of course further work on WN if its a success.
Imagine their ability to raise money for this stuff if WN was a failure...unless of course you think its 100% guaranteed!
It would be unwelcome, but it would at least be logical..

He was very clear in what he was fully funded for...he wasn't fully funded for the £2mm (or indeed any future drilling)
If people want to just hear "Fully funded" then don't be surprised when they're not funded for the stuff they haven't claimed to be funded for. He made no secret of the £2mm, he just had a different plan for how to deal with it, which wasn't necessarily as easy as he might have led you to think.

Just as I was typing the Daily Spangle thudded into my inbox....
Mostly a rehash of the UJO RNS but with these added "nuggets"
" In order to progress its other core projects, Union Jack has identified a number of funding solutions which includes debt and equity financing or a combination of both."
followed at the end by:
"In our view, Union Jack’s shares offer investors a low-cost entry point into a growing producer with a high impact appraisal and production testing programme which will commence imminently. "
... thats the tag line for new potential "new" investors I guess.

Looking at the Spangle tombstones on their website, its hardly a list of thriving A list oil companies they "help"
Most difficult to attract any institutional investor interest so they need a large list of traders, dealers and flippers, thats where the leaks come from...

If Dave had any sense he'd get rid of Spangle and the Media Luvvie and sign up a Nomad Broker who care more about their reputation. Of course that would perhaps cost more, and maybe they don't want the association with the current camp followers who don't seem to understand what insider trading is...

Genghis
Don't invest on impressions from an interview, that is usually less than fully factual and is done to give confidence and promote the stuff you want to promote, not highlight any risks. Invest on what is actually written down on paper, this stuff is checked and cannot be misleading. study the words carefully as they are very carefully used.
e.g."On commissioning, an increase in production of 200 barrels of oil per day, net to Union Jack is EXPECTED".
"...AA rating for Carbon Intensity for its POTENTIAL Upstream crude oil production"
.."RESERVES and CONTINGENT and PROSPECTIVE oil and gas resources for the Wressle discovery of 2.15 million.. "
My Capitals,
RESERVES are proven and economically developable with finance in place.
CONTINGENT Resources, oil/gas have been found and volumes established, but no economic development plan or finance is in place.
PROSPECTIVE resources, no oil/gas has been found in the feature, but if it was it would likely be this big.

As you can see the actual wording is critical, and overall impressions could be misleading...

Ghengis:
"He has deliberately given the impression that UJo would not need funds this side of Wressle cashflow"
this is what he actually put in the RNS.
"The Company's financial health remains strong, with a robust balance sheet with cash reserves to fund its planned drilling, testing and development operations."
Development operations does not include the £2mm due from Wressle, its everything upto the point of first oil, he didn't say he didn't need funding this side of Wressle cashflow, and interestingly the release was silent on the Wressle £2mm payment....

Mary
If we had sight of the bond terms and who holds them, then we could answer that. Its the critical bit of information to let us work out what happens next. If there are covenants and they've been breached then it may well be that the Bondholders demand immediate repayment (not possible) and in effect take the company, get rid of the Board and simply run it for cash.
Often they're wary of doing that, as they may need to replace the incompetents that got them into that situation. Having a new CEO is helpful as he can be incentivised to run it for cash. How anyone can invest here without knowing what cards the bondholders have is taking a blind bet...talk of reserves and onlapping sands is all interesting but isn't going to answer the question. It was interesting to note the qualification around the reserve numbers, that they didn't have a economic threshold applied, they were bald reserves, i.e. if you let these wells run on then thats what you'll get eventually, of course you can never get there as at some point before then the production becomes uneconomic...costs>revenue, they didn't actually volunteer what that number was, but gave a clue when pressed by an analyst that it was about 10k bbls/day.

Mary
Agree with much of what you say.
I think it needs to be recognised that if you believe the bondholders are in an unenviable position, then were does that leave shareholders who rank behind the bondholders. It would be helpful to know the terms of the bond, and any covenants that would allow them to now step in and effectively run the show, without this information everyone, except the Board, who are privy to the terms are flying blind. The bondholders main aim is to retrieve as much of the $230mm as they can, knowing that if they don't get it all back then the shareholders will get nothing at all.
I can't see the bondholders sanctioning anything that has risk that they will be more exposed to losses, and I suspect their base case is to calculate how much revenue HUR can generate with the minimum of further spending... if that number comes close to what they re owed then thats what they'll do... if they have that power, and were not being told the terms..why not?
An Injector is $70mm, corp. breakeven cost is (currently) about 10k bbls/day, so its doing about 4k/day of free cash barrels.
A new producer and injector pair is north of $100mm...where are they going to get this cash from?

Lonestag; Agree, all the info was there, plus answers to Analysts questions.

Choices do nothing more or drill a injector ($70mm) or drill more production wells into sandstones ($$cost??)
Key dates: AM Contract ends June 22, date to extend contract June 21. What more facts will they know by this date ?
Key bits of Info: Breakeven rate at corporate level is "a little over 10k bbls/day"
Simplistic Do nothing further option: If we assume 2 years production at 14k/day then 13k/day.
$45 oil and 10k/d corp breakeven.
After all costs free cash Yr1 14k-10k/day and then Yr2 13k-10k/day over those 2 years is about $110mm.
Current Free Cash as far as I can tell is about $106mm
So if they do nothing, and keep costs tight they'll theoretically have about $226mm in free cash after 2 years. Just about enough to pay the debt, however they will also need to also provide for abandonment costs, not currently provided for in cash, just a "bond" for $30+mm. That'll need to be converted to cash.
Stick an injection well in there and that costs $70mm. That means you need it to increase production by 3000 bbls/day to repay for itself over 18 months at $45.
My guess is they'll run it for cash, can't see the bondholder letting them roll the dice again on a $70mm injection well and/or more drilling $$ to allow them to try and payback the loan, and extend the AM for 3 years given the major Cluster F*ck they've made of it so far...

Buyinmay:
Kerogen is a PE fund. They will make a simple unemotional hard headed decision. If they put in more money can they get this and some/all of their sunk costs back, it'll be a risk intolerant decision. If not they'll just rescue what they can.
HUR owe $230mm plus ongoing annual interest payments at 7.5% (17.5mm per year) . Has to be repaid in Jul 22. We don't know what the debt covenants are but you can imagine that the debt holder will be making sure that anything that is proposed will not reduce their chances of repayment. Hence Maris refers to consultations with stakeholders not shareholders.

GG1982: If thats true, and I can well believe that he was told to sign either an NDA or a non disparagement agreement then any Board members at that time (and wherever they are now) should be asked to explain themselves and if found wanting dismissed by the shareholders.

This is going to finish up in the hands of or control of the debt holders...anyone know who they are?

GreenMachine67; I know, he told me the same....

"The question is do you trust the board enough to remain invested?
Personally I don't."
Quite right: Ask yourself this, is Trice the first founder CEO with a strong will and a unflinching conviction that they're right, even if the evidence puts that in doubt, only to eventually discover they were dead wrong. Nope he's not. Whilst I'm not going to defend what he did or did not do this is not an uncommon situation -strong willed CEO's with significant "self belief", thats how the company got founded.
Of course the way companies deal with this issue is to have NED's. The issue here is simply that the NED's were either afraid to challenge him, didn't understand what he was telling them and/or didn't have the experience to correct the assertions he was making.

The reason we have NEDs is to represent the shareholder and stand apart from the executives, to challenge and to question them, as well as guide and advise based on RELEVANT and CURRENT experience.
If you want to apportion blame:
1: When there were rumblings from shareholders about Governance and the $500mm raise why did the then Chairman Rob Arnott step down? - Did he think the OWC was not where they suggested it was?
2: Who chaired the Technical Audit Committee, this role is to confirm and challenge and test the executives on the technical aspects of the discovery and are accountable to the Board for the validity of the stated reserves and resources - David Jenkins ex BP retired 20 years ago... what was he actually doing whilst in that role?
3: RPS the so called Competent Person, they simply used the data given to them by the Company and simply added up the numbers , they didn't actually check the basis on which the numbers were derived. - Not found in the summary RNS of Reserves and Resources (which was approved by Dr Trice!) but in the actual report page 3 "Our estimates of resources and value are based on the data set available to, and provided by Hurricane. We have accepted, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of these data." , - what about some kind of professional responsibility to check that the numbers they were given were consistent with the actual data.
3: Kerogens Board representative: Roy Kelly -"Previously he was Managing Director of Consulting at RPS Energy Ltd, a leading upstream technical consultancy and reserve auditor." - Stepped down from the Board on the very same day as Dr Trice, to be replaced by a Parsley, an ex Shell technical type... interesting timing coincidence.
4: Van Der Welle, accountant not technical, but an "old mate" of Dr Trice from their Enterprise Oil days. The rest: Smith and Shaw came in late in the day and must be saddened and embarrassed at the s**t show they joined, all they can be blamed for is perhaps not enough DD. Don't just look at the CEO, look at the folks who are there primarily to represent your interests as shareholders..the NED's , are they experienced and strong enough to challenge the manageme

A health warning: "The BOD will be back soon with the numbers for the oil bearing sandstones that may contain significant volumes of oil and at that point the SP will rerate imho"

Think carefully before you start to believe this- The so called on onlapping sandstones..look at the nearby (only?)producing field of that type-Solan, then ask yourself why should I believe this will rescue us : PMO spent more than $2bn developing an alleged 44mm bbls ($50/bbl dev costs!) which would flow at 20-25k bbls/day, it actually flowed at no more than 9k bbls per day for a short period, now down to less than 2k/day (albeit now temporarily increased by another wel $$l) and they had to write down the reserves to a much lower number....its life is expected to end in 2024/5. If thats the type of potential field they're talking about then good luck....

"If someone close to the company told you there is going to be a placing...."
At that point you're an insider, whether you wanted to be or not.
If you trade you're guilty of insider trading ... end of.
The person who told you may also be found guilty an offence regardless of whether you traded or not: Google- Hannam FSA

Any broker who values their reputation will also ask you to sign an NDA before telling you, or at least get you to confirm in writing or on a recorded call that you understand you are about to receive insider information and so you cannot trade.
I'd be asking for logs of all SPA's calls regarding UJO. They are supposed to keep a log of all insiders with time and date.

How many folks read the RPS CPR... not just skipped to the numbers but the boring stuff like this bit:
"Our estimates of resources and value are based on the data set available to, and provided by Hurricane. We have accepted, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of these data."
It was there if you looked for it, there are CPR's and there are CPR's.

Malcy was always a big cheerleader for this.... looks like his Parrot is no longer Perched.