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Manwell02
Good to have some sensible interpretation of the twatter pics...
You are right 4 is a non starter, P&A would need an immediate RNS, and I really don't see how this can be a cement squeeze.
2 is an intriguing suggestion, if true it might suggest they found something unexpected or they've got a fish stuck in the hole and had to plug back and sidetrack elsewhere or to get around it. Certainly wouldn't need an RNS. You'd have to think this isn't the tightest ship..so it could be the simplest explanation (often the best bet). Other than that it could be simply nervous holders selling as the price falls (esp. at UJO)

"The one thing that's guaranteed is it is not a duster.."
Completely and utterly incorrect, they are drilling 2.5km away.
The work done to date suggests the gas may well extend that far, but that is not certain, so using the word guaranteed is wrong.
The likelihood for gas is, by the companies own admission about 70%, but that number in itself is also a guess.

I’m sure they are a long term investor (what choice do they have?)
I’m also sure they’ll outlast the Board...

Just checked how much Petrichor/Heyco/Yates have invested in EDR in £.
As best as I can tell, they have spent £10+mm since 2016 in buying Egdon shares.
Prior to this they already held about 9mm shares but not sure how much they paid for these.
Lest assume £1.5mm or so.
So they've probably, in total, invested about £11.5mm in Egdon.
Their current shareholding at 1.5p is worth about £1.7mm
So it seems Petrichor are in the hole for ~£10mm, essentially for a failed bet on UK fracking.
I can imagine Yates is keen to recover what he can, however the recent investment by Jalepeno, run by Yates brother,
might suggest Heyco's a bit short of readies, so he may not be keen on a equity raise at less than 1.5p.
The Board and Management here are all long term entrenched Directors dealing with what may be a rather p*ssed off 34% shareholder who's has lost £10mm. Somethings got to give....

Egdons Notice of Results and Results.
2015 14th Oct 3rd Nov
2016 18th Oct 1st Nov
2017 6th Oct 31st Oct
2018 4th Oct 30th Oct
2019 1st Oct 19th Nov
In 2019 between Notice and actual there was the UK fracking moratorium announcement, probably why there's a bigger gap between the two. But we are clearly out of sync' for 2020.
This year, as far as I can see not even a notice of results, other than a supposed call with Abbott stating a Notice will be appearing and results towards the end of the month. Clearly theres issues about funding going on, the £400+k for Wressle is probably just about all they have in the bank, of course going concern requires Directors to say warm words about future funding expectations. I'd not be surprised to see them waiting for clarity on funding before coming out with the results.
Getting a bit late for an equity raise, so I wonder if they're trying to do what UJO originally suggested (then dropped) for their Wressle £2mm payment - a pre sale of wressle oil to raise the £400k...

Somethings up.... won't be surprised to see an RNS if these keep heading South.

Someone seems keen to sell - 700k at 1.375

Sorry misread AOGL for AAOG

Folks, Go and look at Solo (Scirroco's) RNS this am....

Probably as the results are due any day now, they may be having a discussion with their Auditor about going concern...

If you look at this pragmatically:
Chrysaor - PE backed with billions invested and unable to IPO (Why bother with PMO if you could), its a route to an exit for the PE money via an LSE listing
PMO - Barely surviving under relentless debt burden, management incentives almost worthless, this is their exit from a difficult place...
This is not a deal based on commercial logic and synergies, its a way for two teams to achieve an exit... it will require the Investment community to invest to allow the Chrysaor shareholders to exit, PMO shareholders are quite simply collateral damage in this process.

GP
Could this be simply running a cement bond log.
If they've cased and cemented they probably want to know that the cement job is a good'un.
Especially as they'll not want a "Macondo" on their hands if any gas they hit is significantly overpressured at this new location..
RNS

"We are dealing with a massive pressurised twin Hydrocarbon zonal area much larger than the A site discovery ."
Really?, do you actually understand that sentence is simply meaningless nonsense.
What is the "massive" pressure?
What is a "twin hydrocarbon zonal area"?
How do you know its "larger than the A site discovery" The well hasn't been drilled yet.

A DST was undertaken at WNA2, it didn't last very long before they were shut down, it must have flowed because there was a flare.
They have never said in any detail what actually happened on that test. Just that the test needed to be "reconfigured"
Which either means there was nothing conclusive or there were issues they'd rather not mention.

1.4p ... must be hoping for a bit of a bounce when Wressle announces so they can rattle the tin without crippling dilution. At a market cap of 5mm even raising enough to drill the wells they want Bisc and NK will need at least 2-3mm let alone the cost of running the company and the 400k due on first oil. Maybe time to call the vet.

As far as I can see UJO held 20% but were on the hook for 40% of the wells costs (from the days when they offered 2:1 on farm-ins. This meant that UJO couldn't farm down as they only had 20% (paying 40). Egdon having 80% but only paying 60%.
Egdon clearly need to farm out but if they offered better terms to faminees on their remaining 80 (say a 1.5:1 promote) then UJO would understandably want the same deal. Nobody farms in at 2:1 these days so the only way to unblock the issue was for EDR to sell UJO 30% and cancel the UJO farm in obligations. They can then both seek to farm out on the same terms, whatever those are. If a well cost £4mm then Egdon were due to be carried for 20% from UJO, a carry for EDR of £800k. So they cancelled the £800k carry and took £100k, and gave them 30%. Good deal for UJO I think, and speaks to EDR's strong need for cash...placing or deal must be close.

HUR vs Cairn
Simple: Cairns operating costs are closer to $10-15/bbl, leaving a decent margin even at $40, they don't have more debt than the next two years free cashflow. They are owed $1.5bn by the Indians (they've only assumed a value of $300mm for this on the books.
HUR produce 14,500 bbls a day and it costs them 10,000 bbls a day to run the company, the production here is falling and so a 1000bbl/day fall reduces their profit by 25%...they don't have enough free cashflow to repay the $230mm debt they owe.
You did ask.

GP don't disagree with what you say, it was the details of how they expect to combat the skin problem that I think was new.
Its difficult to change the embedded perception that shareholders start to believe, as far as many if not mots are concerned this well will flow at 500bbls/day as a given, and as you say the talk of even higher rates is related to inclusion of reservoirs not included in this phase of development. Of course management don't really want to necessarily highlight the possible risks.

They've given further technical info about the "Skin" problem that limited the original Wressle Ashover test to 80 bbls/day.
Its clear now that the 500bbls/day is an estimate not a number based on an actual tested flow rate.
Anything less than 500bbls/day will of course now be seen as a disappointment...and the price will be hammered.
Perhaps a case of over promising leading to under delivery?

"Moreover, the zone now believed to contain residual oil below the oil water contact is very thick, whereas we would have expected an abrupt change in oil saturation at the free water level’.
Clearly he's taken advice on this, but from who?
This abrupt change would indeed be the expected case in a homogeneous good quality sandstone reservoir.
This is fractured basement, and as such the interconnectivity and distribution of fractures is unknown. Because of this there is a very high likelihood that these shows (~1% as per the graph they produced) are related to perched oil or residual oil trapped in local fractures... His idea that this thick column of residual oil is by implication producible (and by default valuable) is fanciful, it would mean he still subscribes to the perched water model... which is clearly now untenable.