Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Good morning all.
Borderisimus, I agree. Also, Upper Carboniferous was where the OSD-1 well drilled and going back to the good-old Fastnet slides where additional untested upside was highlighted for unconventional Shale Gas. Carboniferous gas has also been found in some Tendrara wells. Appreciate that does not guarantee anything but out does not mean being in the UC or Devonian is a negative,
As for the mudstones and sandstones, again we do not know what they drilled through prior to the mudstones (sandstones and ended in mudstones, all mudstones and whether the mudstones form part of the shale). All guess work without the detail.
We must also remember, and as Borderismus points out, the Paleo is scratching the surface or what is known about it. I recall from the deep dive that with 9 and 10, which were not going in as deep as 11 will, they were looking to test some truncation traps around the H-unconfirmity and learn more for TE11.
Just my thoughts early in the morning.
Thank you Exploration. I am learning about my mudstones and shales today...not what I had planned at all. There are evidently several possibilities here - including that they have either drilled completely through their target and finished in the mudstones, the mudstones forms part of the target or they have just encountered mudstones at their TD. I can not see in the last case the, just stopping there if they had not found something of interest - they would deepen the well and carry on to find something a bit further down. The fact that they have not and have started to run suite of logging indicates to me that they have gone through their target.
Would be more than happy if the mudstones were indeed part of a gas bearing shale formation but we shall see. Thank you for the ONHYM article, had not seen that before although was consciously aware of their suggestions of unconventional plays deep in the palaeozoic.
Exploration, thank you for your insights on this. Couple of questions please - would you not expect them to drill right through the reservoir and out the other side or stop within the reservoir target itself? Why understanding is that mudstones can form shale, and shale gas is what has often been mooted for the Palaeozoic back to the Fastnet presentation days, if I am correct? Thanks
Oil shale
Surveys have highlighted a strong potential in the Rif, the Atlas and the South.
>> Timahdit: potential estimated at 15 billion barrels of oil.
>> Tarfaya: potential of 23 billion barrels.
Shale gas
Morocco presents "the 3rd best opportunity in North Africa", according to Benkhadra. The basins identified as having the best potential are: Drâa, Zag, Boudenib, Ouarzazate, Tadla and Haouz.
All of these exploration sites point to promising discoveries, both of gas and oil. This parallels the construction of the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline, which has been confirmed by Benkhadra. Onhym plans to work hard to increase prospecting and attract more companies, especially among the majors. Amina Benkhadra seems at least very confident, saying bluntly that "the tour of Morocco will come soon". The future will tell…
Here is the complete video of the conference-debate on the exploration potential in Morocco
A clarification, however, "these operating potentials are not certified existing volumes, but strong forecasts," says Mohammed Seghiri, CEO of Sound Energy Morocco. These forecasts, however, are serious enough to justify the investments made in Morocco by the British company, which amount to more than 100 million dollars.
Exploration costs fluctuate mainly depending on the price of gas and oil. Other factors come into play, which makes the CEO of Sound Energy deplore "the absence of a prospecting ecosystem in Morocco, unlike Algeria or Tunisia. This has an upward impact on the costs of prospecting.
>> Gharb onshore: small but economically viable gas pockets due to the presence of infrastructure and a local market - notably the Kenitra industrial site. The companies positioned in Gharb are Circle Oil, Cabre, Gulfsands and SDX.
>> Agadir-Tarfaya offshore: 7 wells were drilled. 3 of them on a shallow depth, two of which attest to the presence of oil. The other 4 wells were drilled in depth, with oil and gas detected in three of them.
Onhym has also commissioned a study on mapping the Agadir-Ifni area, in order to establish a geological model of deposit and distribution. The results of this study will be available in 2019.
>> Boujdour offshore: a promising area of 200,000 km² has been identified. A gas well has already been discovered, but has proven to be economically unsustainable. Onhym intends to strengthen drilling in this region to highlight new deposits. Teams from the mining office have made a road show in England and the USA, with several companies having expressed their interest according to Amina Benkhadra.
What is the real potential of oil and gas exploration in Morocco? It is to answer this question that the British Chamber of Commerce organized, Tuesday, November 13, a conference-debate in the presence in particular of the DG of the ONHYM Amin Benkhadra, as well as the directors of Sound Energy Morocco and Clarke Energy .
After years of exploration, Morocco remains under-explored by the oil companies: "the total number of wells drilled at the end of June 2017 is 340, including 43 offshore. That means an average density of 4 boreholes per 1,000 km², compared to 10 per 100 km² on a worldwide scale, "says Amina Benkhadra, director of ONHYM. In total, Morocco also counts 800 sites with high potential, which deserve to be surveyed.
Despite the modest drilling, promising results have been recorded. Especially in the Oriental region, in Tendrara (Figuig province). The production of this site will begin in 2021, following the British Sound Energy, last September, a 25-year concession to the Onhym.
Other sites suggest interesting prospects, as presented by Amina Benkhadra. Because if Morocco is resolutely committed to renewable energies, fossil fuels still have a bright future ahead of them. Currently accounting for 86% of global energy, these fuels will still be on the horizon by 2050 - providing 75% of global energy demand. With a decline in oil and coal, in parallel with the rise of natural gas.
"In order to secure the supply of energy, Morocco has chosen an open energy mix. It is for this reason that we are working to strengthen exploration in the sedimentary basins of the Kingdom. It is a risky and very capitalistic sector, where 95% of investments have been made by foreign partners, "says the CEO of Onhym.
To date, the prospecting activity in Morocco has 15 international partners, with 86 research permits. The investments made by these companies amount to $ 27.5 billion over the period 2000-2018. The State can claim a maximum of 25% for operating royalties, and incentives have been specifically introduced for this sector: exemption from the tax for 10 years, exemption from VAT and customs duties on the equipment ... "Morocco has set up one of the most attractive executives in the world, in favor of prospecting companies," says Amina Benkhadra.
Overview of the main oil and gas exploration sites in Morocco.
>> Tendrara (Oriental): As mentioned above, this site is operated by Sound Energy, which has won a 25-year concession with Onhym. With an area of 14,500 km², this site has a potential of 952 billion cubic meters of gas. Production starts in 2021, and will benefit from the connection with the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline, via a pipeline 120 km long.
>> Sidi Mokhtar (Essaouira): also exploited by Sound Energy, the potential of this site of 4,000 km² is estimated at 308 billion cubic meters of gas.
There are those, they know who they are, the regular posters of proper debate, fact, challenge and interest, of this board know who they are.. that pop up with the sole purpose of destroying all debate, all reason, all fact and deploying under-hand tactics to both influence investor mind sets and the share price. Why else to they not appear here in periods of price rises and price stability? It is really disgraceful, end-of. I wish all genuine posters to the board, both positive and negative in opinion, a good evening.
Thanks for your kind words Ginger Bear, Ponkey and Tableleg. Have not gone into war and peace for a while but I have been trying to step back, avoiding the noise, and remind myself about the key pieces of the puzzle already in place and the huge potential, off set with a sense of grounding by a low (currently) share price.
Then why have you not sold? You raise several red flags that would surely mean to any investor to sell regardless of profit or loss. And therefore, what return from the depths today, surely not a coincidence? There is absolutely nothing insulting in my post, I am questioning you and several others, who deride investors for their decision. It is my decision to invest, my decision to hold or sell, and I find it malicious some of the inaccuracies (putting it at best) that are spread for either financial gain or enjoyment of seeing others suffer financially. I do not agree with everything that James has done or said, find me a company where everyone agrees with everything it does, but there is a correct way to discuss and debate these views... and I am afraid you are someway off the mark from that.
Good evening all, like most am very surprised to see the price start with a 2, but then again I was the same with a 3, 4, 5, 6 and a 7. Absolutely no ramping in what I am going to say, my investment is not changing in any shape, but in my humble opinion, there are several things which get over looked when the price turns south, and as fear takes hold, this becomes a little self fulfilling.
We have an existing gas discovery, we await the GSA but where ever it falls in the range, my personal opinion is that it will be high end, we have a value to what we already have discovered - sell it or take it to production. There is a core value here. Ironically, we are in far better shape than when we drilled TE-6.
We have Schlumberger converting their interests into ownership on the license. Having funded the seismic program, they have felt happy to take a % ownership.
We have Enegas and co running the FEED. Like Schlumberger, this is no anomaly or chance, this is by design. To the wonderful doom-slayers who populate this board, No, JP has not pulled the wool over their eyes, this is not a facade but is clearly of significant potential.
We have 3 back-to-back wells. Yes sentiment will fall on a poor TE-9, but this is not a one trick pony and having spent an unhealthy amount of my time listening, reading, meeting, discussing and asking questions of the technical team, we have a world class team who have done fantastic work to delineate, derrick, identify, assess, analyse the strictures, the broader potential and the overall basin model. I re-listened to the deep dive today whilst on a cross-trainer and found myself working out for longer than usual!
There is plenty more but for now I won't take up more of your time, but what is clear to me, again in my humble option, is that the risk v reward is absolutely huge. No one can quantify the potential of the upside, the Paleo could be mind boggling, and even if it is not, we have a fall back onto an existing discovery. Flip side is that we have a quantifiable downside, that is for each one of us to decide what level of risk and reward they are happy with, however I have not seen a price for many, many months I would see fit to de-risk with.
Good evening all.
Fellrunner, I think amongst many things, you are mistaken in the use of the word 'us'. After skimming some of the nonsense you have come out with today (isn't it great to be a human being that pops out of the blue to rub salt in people's wounds when they have lost paper or in some cases, real, money), it is quite clear that you have no correlation to the company, the investors or anything other than trying to wind people up. Good luck to you, you are going to need it quite clearly.
JoeCreed, totally agree. Had this conversation with my wife. In hindsight would have loved to have sold some back in the high prices, instead I kept buying! Now at 32p or thereabouts it is a no brainer, no point in selling, that time went many price ranges ago. The downside is there on sentiment, there is underpinning with the existing discovery but there upside is unquantifiable, could be anything and that is what makes this a once in a life time shot in my opinion.
Thanks for the technical insights DDBoy and Bluboyz. My thinking is also that by having two casing points as opposed to the three seen on our prior wells, we are entering the reservoir(s) with a larger drill bit from a slightly larger casing, so a slightly larger hole...which if I recall was mooted sometime ago as one of the ways to mitigate some of the issues encountered with TE8. They can then set the 7 inch liner to the 2nd casing point to protect the TAGI if required before drilling down into the Paleo (or I guess,,out of my depths on this one).
Many thanks to Panther (and Josh) for preparing and loading the videos, very much appreciated. And many, many thanks to Crude for the great work with the camera out in Morocco, really very helpful for those that were unable to attend and see both the rig and site in her full glory, and listen to the Q&A. Thank you!
Thanks ddboy. I do not mean to sound naive, learning as I go. My mind was trying to work through the "if required" which has been stated after setting of a 7 inc liner in the previous two RNSs. In today's it is not mentioned. So at what stage would you think they would be likely to set the 7 inch liner? many thanks.