Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
MTF, quite agree we do need numbers in the ground and that is what they are currently doing at TE-10. in the other work stream for the gas that we already have discovered, we need to finalise a GSA as part of moving towards production. So lots going on. It is not rocket science!
In all seriousness, this is another of those pieces of information confirming what has been said before will happen, has happened. The kind of things which are all too easy to over look or be forgotten - the TE7 pressure build-up news recently another.
We were all, well nearly all, very happy, that Schlum took this route when first announced, a great endorsement of the value they see not just in the current drills but the future exploration as a whole. Having that now finalised (appreciating just the exploration areas with the production concession area still in process), reinforces that regardless of what lies ahead with TE-10. I am sure Schlumberger could have changed their mind if they wanted.. Some big weeks lie ahead!
Indeed, the whole prospect inventory would be quite a read! The very thought of the 6 becoming 12 drillable targets Brian referred to the team finalising is quite something. Pools averaging 300 - 500 BCF and up to 1TCF. John Argent said at BBs how he had gone back through all work, research, results etc since the first explorations on Tendrara and still got back to the 20+ TCF in the TAGI.
Pinkey, not sure that’s correct. There are a multitude of factors at play and even if TE-10 is successful, which I think it will be, TE-11 could still be drilled. It may not be and I am not sure it will be, however do not assume failure!
Crude, on SGs defence, it was stated at BBS that the permit had been applied for. In reality it, like SoundingOff, said earlier, is part of the bigger puzzle and one which whilst a delay is not really a delay. All good in my view, except a couple of posters who will come to in a second.
bigbench, I think it is also the case of human impatience (myself included). It is natural but equally a sense of realism should be adopted. A significant number of posts on here do not take regard of the facts, they are based on thoughts and assumptions, some will be right and some wrong. Any downward price movement will unnerve some but equally if we are all expecting unstimulated flow rates, we have not been paying attention to what has been said..and that does not mean a bad result by any means. It is the stimulation which is designed to produce the commercial rates... listen and listen again to what Brian said at BBs.. it is all there! Good luck all.
PIs do get nervous, especially when a price drops. For most of the day we were a sea of blue and the larger chunkier rates were more blue than red.
I was 'all-in' some way back and the slowly increasing positivity and confidence in TE10 shown by the company (correctly they started very cautiously after TE9 and have still played it carefully in my opinion - even at BB it was measured and not getting rampy, much better that way!) is at odds to the need to sell some shares. Each to their own.
Besides, our existing discovery got a lot better this week with the pressure build-up news on Monday.
I am still expecting good news. Good weekend all.
Partridge, not at all - this was the same in the last RNS (the figures were combined) but I think they have added the wording to clarify as it was not as clear on the chart on the slide as it could have been. Hope that reassures.
Thanks Petroleumeng, and they have selected the 6m around the successful retrieval of a gas sample per the MDT. From what BM was saying in his presentation, the interval is bound by a shale above and below, thus restricting the stimulation to the c30m interval. The fracture network is key here also. Fingers crossed!
I have read a few posts last evening and this morning which mirror my own thinking – they will release news if it is price sensitive and will do so in conjunction with the NOMAD. We have been guided on 3 weeks (from the Balls Brothers event) which takes us to end of next week, we have also had the “30-days” for testing and the “The Company expects the initial post stimulation flow rate around end March” in the late February RNS. This of course does not mean it will be released as an RNS (as is part of a bigger test programme – unless it is unexpected).
These timings are also all subject to change based upon the live operations and can only be taken as a guideline.
I am not expecting the 3x unstimulated tests to flow commercially – I hope we get an unstimulated flow in at least one of these intervals, but think and all this is, is my thinking, these tests are there to identify the lowest moveable gas are part of a bigger picture of the test programme and understanding of the well/basin. Brian was quite clear in the presentation at Balls Brothers, it is the stimulation that is designed to join-up the thin bedded pay in the 30m interval surrounding the 6m stimulation to produce the best possible production rate. Time will tell..
Dixie33, many thanks for taking the time to write and share the anaswers back from the team, much appreciated. As others have said, this additional clarity together with the RNS yesterday, underscores the economics of the exisiting discovery and further underpins the FDP for the existing discovery. Great news as we head into and throughout the TE-10 testing phases. Exciting times.
SG47, I would not suggest I am more knowledgeable on here but know a few things on this one - 3x intervals will be perforated as part of the unstimulated test which is designed to identify the deepest moveable gas. This will be between 2090/2070 and 1960. Note that all of these intervals are below the spill point. Then a 6m interval will be perforated and mechanically stimulated, with the stimulation being restricted to a 30m zone sandwiched between shale. This is between 1920 and 1950, around the area where the MDT extracted moveable gas (1937). Note again, this straddles the spill point.
As for timings, who knows, unstimulated this week, mech stimulated next week (and thereafter) but that does not mean news just the process. How long is a piece of string. Outcome far more important.
Good evening all, I am sorry did not make your acquaintance Boom but for any scare mongers out there, there are a few as we all know, you demonstrated very well how the management team can be grilled at such events which is both an endorsement to the investor in doing so and the management team in answering and putting themselves into such positions. Not many companies do that. Fair play!
As well as cashing in my annual dividend in Moretti, it was very good to meet Crude, DaveyBoy and Mebo2 among others, for the first time, as well as catching up with old friends.
I can only endorse what I have read on here from posters whop attended the event. I genuinely felt a difference in the event and what was being said. Yes, no one knows how the well will flow, but the MDT was clearly a huge plus and there is a confidence it will flow. The sands are not of the same quality as at 6/7 however there is clearly gas there, it is moveable, and it is most certainly below the spill point, thus in the Strat trap.
The technical team continue to impress and I really do mean this. I am far less interested in what James and JJ have to say, in no disrespect, but want to know what the technical team under Brian have to say. Both Schlum and Sound believe the gas will flow but now need to deliver that flow and a commercial flow. Without doubt in my mind, we are entering the most important 4-6 weeks in the companies history.
And for all the doom-slayers out there and in fairness, even big fans of the company, who after TE-9 wrote of TE-10, I think many would not believe we are in the position we are in now awaiting a testing phase to commence. How quickly things can change.
Good evening all
Pontcanna, your posting style sounds familiar.... hmmm... anyway, moving on from your insightful posts. . Will post some thoughts tomorrow, was great to catch up with many familiar investors and meet some for the first time. Came away happy, huge 4-6 weeks ahead!
Thank you Tableleg, and likewise, hope all well with you. I genuinely think there is fracking with a small f, mechanical stimulation, and fracking with a big F, full on shale gas... we are certainly in the small f department. And like you say and as Crude said earlier, it is all desert out there... just the size of Belgium to be precise!