ATM8 Apr 2024 19:07
Someone’s opinion I’ve seen and read / ex hedge fund manager
Indonesia has since the mid 1980’s been the World’s largest supplier of mined #tin – peaking at 145,000 tpa and doing 78,000t in 2023. A massive fraud investigation is underway, looking at an estimated $13bn pilfered form state owned mining company PT Timah.
No #tin has been exported from Indonesia in 2024 and export quotas look set to be limited to only 44,000 tpa.
The DRC produces an estimated 20,000 tpa of #tin – 12,000t from Bisie and 8,000 top of artisanal production. Bisie is imminently set to go to 20,000 tpa from the opening of Mpama South.
However an insurgency by M23 rebels to the West of Goma has displaced 1M Congolese with the rebels now controlling the main supply route to Bisie. The effect on #tin supply is unclear.
#Tin is consumed in tens of billions of end use consumer items in minute quantities – as a coating in a tin can, on a printed circuit board, as a stabiliser in every piece of PVC.
#Tin's price inelasticity of demand is extremely high. E.g. an iPhone contains today about US$0.04 of tin. There is no tin price where iPhone sales are affected.
New demand for #tin is coming from solar – approximately 70t is consumed per GW of installed capacity. This accounted for 28,000t in 2023, or about 7% of total demand.
During Covid demand for consumer electronics went parabolic, with the World running out of some chips and products. This drove the #tin price to $50,000 per t.
Post Covid we saw a big drop in #tin demand and destock as consumers had got considerably ahead of average replacement times. From a demand perspective it looks increasingly like a destocked supply chain is seeing resurgent demand.
Supply is under threat like never before. Supply chains are destocked. There are almost no new projects. Demand is highly inelastic. I expect to see a peak on this #tin bull market above $100,000 before the end of 2025.
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