Member Info for RichTheNewbie

Generally people who aren't invested are a lot more objective, you're right. You're as bad as those crazy old bags on twitter who keep posting about me every day.

Very true. You're mentioning the possibility that this will go down if all the people reviewing the data aren't interested and they don't get any bids. Sounds pretty reasonable to me. If that's an RTNesque deramp then he's paying you a compliment.

Not2sure - no you�re just assuming everything is just a minor issue and assuming the field will be brilliantly productive. You might choose to ASSUME this sort of thing but it doesn�t make it true. None of us really know and imo the indications are far from brilliant so far.

how=home (obviously)

parkeg1 - One will help inform the other. It's not as if they'll ignore how things have been going recently. To what degree though you could debate till the cows come how.

Monarch - as you know, I never said there isn't a chance money could be made. It's all a question of likelihood. I thought the risk/reward was better previously. Problem is operationally it isn't/wasn't quite as good as many of us thought imo. So I now think it's a bit worse in terms of risk/reward, despite the price drop, and enough to make me not want to take the risk. If you and others think it's still worth the risk I've never had a problem with that. Despite all the aggro on here and elsewhere. At the end of the day it's pretty much all going to be down to what proper oil companies think. If you get a decent deal/bid you'll do well and if not you probably won't. Or there's the turgid middle ground where you get a bad bid and things drag on for ages :p This is why discussing how the field is ACTUALLY doing is important. As any bid (whether T/O or JV) is going to be judging the value based on how much money they think they can make. I think there's reasons for concern on this front but also know they may be judged surmountable and therefore still worth a bid. We'll all have to wait to see how it plays out.

It helps put a tiny bit more cash in the coffers scott, but the problem is more how well it bodes for the future, the field, and therefore for any offers. It's hardly ideal, when trying to attract offers of money, whether in T/O or for a stake to have: - PG10a declining fairly quickly as they try to manage it to keep it producing - PG11a producing no better than it was previously, which was low enough that they kept going in trying to fix it - a lack of cash to go much further, development wise, hence this tout around The key is whether any bidder will look at it and think they can make lots of money from these wells with more investment. So far AST haven't exactly demonstrated they're a nice easy money making operation for someone to buy........

It's hardly a fine result. It's like having your ferrari go into the garage because it would only do 20mph and when it comes out still only doing 20mph!

It's hardly a fine result. It's like having your ferrari go into the garage because it would only do 20mph and when it comes out still only doing 20mph!

I'll find the negatives, rather than ignore them, when they're there to be found, which it appears they still are.

It's very cagey phrasing. Goes on about a build-up of pressure from having been shut it, yet says it's now only producing at the rate it was before ,which was bad enough they keep going in to try to fix it. I don't think that's very encouraging. If I'm wrong he should say what kind of rates they're getting, as it would be good news, but it doesn't sound like it so far.

Ah a new one. Will have a listen.

Are you sure he said that about PG11a? I remember he said that it was back up and running, and used words like "satisfactorily", which isn't exactly a ringng endorsement. I would have thought if it was producing lots he'd be shouting that from the rooftops instead he glossed over it. However it may just be too early to tell if it's going to work well or not. (unless there's another podcast rather than the vox one I've not heard)

So basically they would gain nothing from the vast majority of them..... Having said that, an acquiring company (if one existed) could choose to allow them to vest them early, and therefore let them benefit (if the offer was actually above that price obviously).

adriatic those are the START dates not the end dates.

Probably. If you get an offer I'd agree it's less likely to be all cash (in fact if it was all cash I think it'd be an offer most of you would be more likely to be unhappy with as not many companies would have that much cash to spare).

(actually - remove the on-market bit - as cash counts too afaik)

A rather important difference reso. Not sure why this keeps being repeated on here though also only applies if they've acquired shares on-market too doesn't it? So they could make an offer for 0.0001p per share couldn't they.....as long as it's to all holders. Not that it'd work obviously.

The couple of larger buys from earlier in the morning probably helped prop it up for a while but the selling continued and it had to drop eventually.

Yeah, the lack of reply was my point, the reporter's direct questions about wtf he was waffling about, resulted in a stony silence, from the man with verbal diarrheoa ;) Does look young though as you say. Although it's only a section she's editor of.