Member Info for RianScott

THG closed around 31p on 11 June, market cap roughly £495m on approximately 1.59bn shares, with a 52-week range of 23.82p to 52.55p. So the stock has roughly halved from the January peak while the TLB rallied 500bps. And the context for the release is now obvious: Shadowfall Capital is running an active short campaign this week, with even THG bulls on the forums noting "the board has gone into overdrive this week". This wasn't repricing groundwork; it's a counter-short broadside. Shadowfall's historical THG angle has always run through balance sheet and accounting quality, and a TLB above par is management's most credible single rebuttal to a solvency-flavored short thesis. Fine — but recognize it for what it is: the company is fighting a narrative war, and you're reading its artillery.

We’re live with the interview. One of the questions is about share buybacks. 🚀🚀🚀

‘26 looks pretty good to me. Expect to get 25 to 50mln fcff on the conservative side. Pay down debt further and start a share buyback program. Watch this space. 🚀🚀🚀

Normal gyration in the market indeed. MM is gaining revenue at the cost of short term profit without eroding the cash balance of the company. All this is fine while gaining market share in a difficult market environment. So much opportunity here at these levels.

They try to shake out weak hands the last two days. Again, the future looks very bright for this company. Let revenue accelerate, profits will follow in due course.

Just short term noise. It’s been in this range for a few weeks now, even longer. Paying down debt with fcf and vat refund will help fcf materially. Some whey price easing and we’re looking at 50 tot 75mln fcf to the firm. That will kick up the price materially. Today still a bit unsure for some doubting equity holders and abandoning ship. Nothing new under the sun here.

Please give me 40 again. Will not happen. Fcf will be in the range of 25mln minimum for ‘26. Probably a lot higher with all the potential for the company with this excellent momentum building up. We are out of the woods guys and this will rerate nicely coming months despite the negative day today. Excellent 180mln cash position and 55mln vat almost in the pocket. Let’s hope we can buy still some a bit lower coming weeks for this will be our last good opportunity in this lifetime

No hope sir. This will accelerate upwards this year I think. Q4 numbers will crush shorts at least 🚀🚀🚀

Snickers protein sold out again within weeks after refilling stock earlier. This one goed very fast. 👌

Interview is on the 16th. So my guess would be 14th or 15th trading update.

This will explode guys. Happy new year

Announced on Bloomberg terminal, payed license. Jan 16th is the interview date.

He’ll be present at the European Internet Days 2026 as one of the speakers on this jp morgan event. These are virtual management firesides. Probably trading update just before the interview with latest to talk about.

Short interest fell sharply last week according to Bloomberg sources. Moulding appearing at JP Morgan interview half january also encouraging.

1. Clear turnaround message

THG frames 2025 as the year it absorbed external shocks (£95m EBITDA hit from whey and FX) and emerged leaner and more profitable — signaling resilience.

2. Cost base transformation

Annual costs cut by ~£200m, headcount halved, and automation rolled out — implying better operational gearing for future growth.

3. Restored profitability

Management states profitability is now better than in FY19, despite macro pressures. That suggests a reset baseline.

4. Focus on strong, global brands

THG has narrowed its focus to two businesses with global leadership (Myprotein and THG Beauty), and is exiting non-core or subscale areas.

5. Reinvestment narrative

Now that the heavy restructuring is done, the “Year of the Horse” metaphor hints at a shift from defense to offense — i.e., growth, freedom, expansion.

At least the original snickers protein is completely sold out at myprotein.com

Strong reviews on the product as well 👌

Neither one, just dilution from the convertible excercise

Yes that would bring the return of investor confidence I guess. Matts valuation of the total company is north of 4 billion it seems. Quite alot of fun to come our way then.

Interesting interview indeed. Matt expects 12 to 13% ebitda margin medium term on nutrition. That is quite a statement to make.

THG PLC appears materially undervalued because most of the market is using outdated balance sheet information.

The company reported net debt of £321m in H1 2025, but this figure is no longer relevant. After the Claremont Ingredients disposal, pro-forma net debt fell to approximately £220m. Following the December 2025 conversion of the £60m shareholder convertible loan, pro-forma net debt is now roughly £160m. This is significantly lower than the £300m+ levels still referenced in many analyst models.

At a share price of 44p, THG’s market capitalisation is about £704m. Adjusting for the updated net debt, the enterprise value is approximately £864m. Based on 2026 EBITDA expectations of £120–150m, THG trades on 5.8–7.2× EV/EBITDA, well below global nutrition peers (typically 8–14×).

On this basis, fair value for the shares ranges from 50p to over 90p, with higher valuations justified if Nutrition continues to grow at double-digit rates and licensing partnerships scale. The recent simplification of the capital structure (convertible removed, Ingenuity demerged) reduces risk and strengthens the investment case.

In short, updated financials indicate THG may be mispriced.