RNS's7 Aug 2017 11:26
Apologies but not got much time right now to properly evaluate these RNS's. For what they are worth, put down my somewhat hasty initial reactions. Good progress with ramp up to over 1.25m cts in Q2 and avg grade encouragingly continues to improve with 16.5 and 17.5 cts/t for 1H and 2H. While prices are up for medium and high, costs still not being covered but getting close to breakeven with over 95% of production and operating costs now being covered. As usual insufficient information provided to allow shareholders to properly assess the mine and business. Why have sales of high been lumped with medium? Avg prices for med/high still very low but maybe still have most quality stockpiled awaiting sale to sightholders in future? . Is this because only a few high quality cts were sold during H1? or because they are not fetching much even when treated and or cut/polished? Still note management confident of Q3+ being profitable. Good but why? Are they expecting increased sales of higher quality beneficiated material at higher prices to new sightholders in Q3?, or increased prices as marketing continues?, or because costs/ct mined will be even lower in Q3 (presumably less capex needed in Q3 as company has now achieved ramp up)? No mention of big stones. No breakdown by size and colour and quality and proportion of each mined and sold for what cost. No detailed breakdown by treatment. Avg project level cost/ct continues to decline significantly (good). Not clear if there has been sightholder sale yet. Only $332,000 cash equivalents left after some capex to complete ramp up in 1H. Equity actually increased slightly. Small sales from website hardly surprising seeing as so few sapphires are ever shown for sale on it. Why no breakdown for sapphires vs tanzanites? Why so few sapphires ever been on sale on website?
As for JORC - While 87.5m cts is considerable (and only a little below the initial capricorn JORC), the information has no detail as to quality breakdown and whether this excludes the stuff too small to sort and sell. More information could have perhaps been given as to variability in grade. Note that JORC grade given in gms/LCM when updates generally discuss cts/tonne. The Sanlam analyst used a conversion of 1 LCM = approx 2 tonnes. If correct, grade of new JORC using this conversion is only equivalent to 8.75cts/t which is about half of what was achieved at Capricorn in 1H. If double the grade is still not yet profitable, then unless the quality profile is radically different in the new area or there are above avg higher grade areas to target, or much higher prices are still to be obtained for quality mined in future, then (at current prices/ct sold) whole of new area may not be economic to mine. Q3 update going to be very interesting.
As for JORC - The original JORC was for 109m cts with a grade of 8gms/LCM (equivalent to 20 cts/T assuming 2T-1LCM).