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"The Chief Scientist of the World Health Organisation probably has the edge on you for assessing the medical risk and probabilities about immunity."

I have no doubt Soumya has the edge on me in that respect...

...but as an aside I actually worked with her a few times some years ago on a UNAIDS programme.

"Regulator - I think you are reading too much into this being a notifiable disease. Influenza is a notifiable disease but the majority of cases go unrecorded or undiagnosed. Having a mass testing system with 40% compliance in reporting results and taking action with self isolation action may control the virus 100x better than having no available home self test."

'Flu is not a notifiable disease. Influenza virus is a notifiable organism (for surveillance purposes.

What would concern me most, if I were a potential bidder, is this requirement:

" DHSC has commissioned an inventory management system to track stock centrally across all its facilities. The supplier has the option to transact directly in the DHSCs Inventory Management system. If any other WMS system is utilised by the supplier, the system shall have the capability to interface directly with DHSC's Inventory management system and middleware (Oracle Integration Cloud) using pre-specified interfaces."

...given that the NHS and DHSC records on IT system procurements are hardly confidence inspiring. Just think Track and Trace.

PS: I could see it being supervised use - but it won't be entirely self-use in the home, as antibody testing could be.

"Regulator, I'd welcome your further thoughts on this.

Firstly I'm assuming that once the Mologic AG LFT test is CE marked, that they will seek MHRA approval for self test. It would seem a logical step to take to open up mass testing. Even if it's in a drive through scenario, lob it in the car, self test, hand back, go home. That could then open them up for postal delivery too. All assumption I know."

I don't think antigen will, in the sort to medium term, become self-testing - I think it will remain professionla POC. That's because antigen testing is used to find an active infection and Covid 19 is a notifiable disease. I'm not aware of any other notifiable disease where self-test is used.

"I feel like the phrase "gold standard" has lost its meaning in this pandemic.

It used to mean a well established method backed up by mountains of data and is used as a reference point to benchmark any new state of the art tech against.

Now everything and anything seem to be gold standard"

In this context, the phrase was being correctly used. Molecular/PCR testing is the gold standard for testing for active infection. It will be used to confirm positive LFT tests in Liverpool.

"I would have thought it would have been home testing for the antibody testing as this needs MHRA approval. I don't believe they were looking for MHRA approval for the antigen test. Either way it could fit in well with the NHS Covid app which had an antibody picture testing element to it."

This is primarily in relation to antigen testing. This is because, even if the sample is collected at home, the test itself has to be collected and returned for processing. Why is why the tender is for delivery and collection. Even if we move to antigen LFTs (e.g. the Mologic antigen LFT) these will still need to be collected.

They might also be used for self-test antibody tests in future but those wouldn't necessarily need collection, as they are processed in the home.

"See below from tender. Colin King i did say you would need to buy more equipment to keep up with demand

The contract duration is going to be 12 months plus an optional 12-months extension, with an indicative value of GBP 550 million for the initial contract period. The volume is anticipated to be approximately 215 000 test kits a day. For the duration of these contracts,. BACK OF THE NET"

These will primarily be antigen tests - not antibody test (that's why they have to be collected).

"Get in there ODX https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W45/738394198#top"

This is a tender notice for delivery and collection of test kits. I'm not sure why you're saying 'Get in there ODX'...

"I did point that out.
"Now it is at home use, but you still have to send the blood sample back to get your results. So not at all the same as what ODX are making.""

They're also offering an LFT antibody test (which I believe may be the Visitect test but I'm not sure - it could be one of the others) - but it's being administered as a professional POC rather than self-test.

It's worth pointing out this is not a 'home test kit' in the broader sense that is being used in relation to the UK-RTC LFT. In this case, the test is not completed at home - you send the sample back to the lab where it is analysed via PCR.

In case you're wondering, Mike Yeadon claimed (on 4 November):

" - I am certain the pandemic is over and was over before the end of June.
- There was a clear peak of excess deaths in spring. COVID-19 clearly caused many deaths, mostly of the elderly and already ill.
- Turning to late summer and into the autumn – despite exaggerated claims that there is an ongoing full-blown pandemic, there are still FEWER respiratory deaths than at the same time periods in all five of the years since 2015. The below shows monthly deaths with any respiratory primary diagnoses including COVID-19."

The man's a fecking loon!

"This is an interesting debate. I listened to Dr. Mike Yeadon on a recent podcast this week, he (quite logically) suggested we must gain a level of immunity otherwise no one would recover without a vaccine. He went on to suggest that in his opinion immunity should last many years (suggested between 10-15) I don't know much about him, have a little research. Is he a respectable source of knowledge @RegulaterUK?"

Dr MIke Yeadon, the well-known Covid sceptic who writes for the Daily Wail?

No - he's not considered a credible source. Credible sources are people like the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine, the WHO, the Wellcome Foundation, the King's Fund, and the other organisations with proper transparency and governance.

"But it amazes me that we are so hesitant when the Chief Scientist for the WHO says we probably have immunity for years and we have clearly established it for the duration of the disease so far for those who have recovered. "

The duration of the disease so far having been less than a year...

That's why scientists are urging caution. We still know relatively little about Covid19 and immunity, as well as about the long term effects.

We have a number of research teams postulating various scenarios - but these are often countered by other groups, even at the pre-publication stage (and it's worth noting that much of what is out there is being reported at pre-publications stage).

Except that there is other evidence that suggests otherwise. The reality is, we don't know how long any immunity lasts with Covid19 - whether its naturally or vaccine induced.

The Suresign part of CIGA is nothing to do with UK-RTC test. CIGA just happens to be using someone who works for the Suresign side of stuff on the UK-RTC side of things.

As I've said on a number of occasions previously, DHSC is hampered by having the most incompetent ministerial team ever, who are enthralled by anything that goes 'ping' - particularly Hattie 'The App' Manc0ck. Frankly, you could sell them a turd freshly coiled out by Keir Starmer if you stuck a few flashing lights and a buzzer in it.

They have been warned numerous times by their senior civil servants that it is better to invest in tried and tested technologies (such as LFT) in the main.. but they won't listen.

"not a lot, probably just bonus for stuff for their hard work"

Nope, it's not bonuses - it's Sharesave allocations.

"Personally I would have the Musar over the Rothschild."

A man of taste, refinement and discernment...

"But if they were out of Musar I would take the Rothschild without complaint!"

And then you had to go and spoil it.

;-)

Chateau Mouton Rothschild is vastly over-rated (as is much French wine).