Member Info for Redtom

ifonly1, sorry, I replied to Ken instead of you.

Ken, yes I do. Sentiment seems to be changing and any positive comments after the talks will be positive. I see this rising to 310 to 320 quite quickly.

Ken, I agree.
I like what I hear (so far) about the US/China discussions so I'm back in. I'm building up a big stake again.

Ken, there's no way I would risk a grand on this donkey. Far too much risk.

Ken,

Thanks for asking.
Me & the missus are off to Japan for a month for the Rugby World Cup in Sept/Oct. Can't wait. We got tickets in the various ballots to 8 games so we are pretty sorted. Will probably hire a camper van this summer around France too. I am so looking forward to giving up work. I'm sure you can recommend that (until you have to step in and sort out a problem in your business)!
Tom

Ken,

With most of these I have to do multiple trades. Must have done 60 deals today, mostly GLEN. I tend to 10000 at a time but you often get a better price for 5000. Occasionally I might try 25000 if I need to exit quickly but I would normally get a worse price. Therefore it can be a bit frustrating as it can take quite a while to take a position and even longer to unwind it.
But one of my NY resolutions is to invest more cautiously as I'm giving up work in the Spring (to be a full time investor) so I can't afford to be so reckless. You are right is that it is a win big / lose big strategy and I've been lucky enough in 2018 to win big. I did a lot worse in 2016 & 2017. Shire then Randgold completely saved me, but that was more luck than judgement. When Shire was at £30 in Feb 2018, I was about £120k down and that feeling is so horrible that I don't want it to come around again.

I can't make up my mind about GLEN. I keeping changing from 'ridiculously undervalued' to 'too many risks' so I really can't call this. I'm going to sit on some cash until US/China and the Brexit vote provide some guidance. But things could more very quickly.... double edged sword...

Good luck mate,

Tom

Anyone on here using ETFs?
I've recently got into these due to the reasonably tight spread and no stamp duty but I would welcome others experience.
I'm generally doing FTSE calls/puts USD shortGBP long and Natural Gas. So far so good but I'm thinking of doing it more given the lack of 'stamp duty' free shares now that Shire & Randgold has gone. Still got GLEN, IAG & PFC but less choice that we recently had.
Any thoughts?

Thanks guys,

Tom

Hi Ken,

Funnily enough I bottled it today and sold my whole holding (290,000) which I bought last week. Again I was losing sleep over it so took decent profit. Average in was 2.796, average out was around 2.865.

I need to stop the all in approach as I will get seriously burned one of these days!

Hope you're keeping well.
Good banter on here I see.
Tom

Hang in there, you'll be fine. Try not to stress about it too much. Not a loss until you sell. Until yesterday I was in for £3400 a pip. I had to sell majority yesterday to reduce the stress. So I do feel your pain but if you can tolerate the bumps, stay patient.

Chalfont,
There was an article about Glencore's coal business.
In a nut shell it said that whilst global demand for fossil fuels will reduce to next to nothing over the next 10 -20 years, there is still a lot of demand, particularly in countries like China. At the same time mining companies are generally (Glencore aside) not investing in coal mines such that the supply is restricting. So for next 5 -10 years demand will outstrip supply pushing prices high.
Beyond 10 years the story starts to reverse as demand (hopefully) slows down as fossil fuels are replaced by cleaner energy.
Tom

Hi Ken,

A more balance portfolio is definitely the way ahead for me too. As you say, I took an 'all or nothing' approach for SHP & Randgold during 2018 and also for GLEN very recently. This last one (ie Glen) made me lose sleep so I decided enough is enough. I've still got a decent holding in Glen but sold the majority earlier today. I had a few INTU too (shame) and I also bought a few FRES which are doing OK.
Whilst more boring, there are a lot of great yielders (and chance of capital gains too) in Oils, Banks, Insurance etc which I will look into in the New Year.
Still think Glen has great potential for 2019 but I can no longer justify betting everything on it as I intend to jack in my job in Feb so I have to be more sensible (yawn, yawn). Would not be surprised to see 350p by next Spring if US/China sign a trade deal and global growth is maintained.
All the best, Tom

Hi Ken,

Totally out of SHP as of a week or two ago. I had thought that there was no scope for much increase from the 45-46 range as the 'value gap' had closed to next to nothing but then Takeda went up 7% last night which upped the deal by 3.5%. But even with this overnight increase, the offer is only worth a tad over £47. So I would not expect SHP to rise above £47 unless Takeda has a few more big rises.

My timing for Shire was good but I came out of Randgold far too early and I bottled it with Glen today. Very nervous about the overall markets at the mo. But there appears to be incredible value out there but could it be even better value in a week or month's time due to Brexit/China/Other global events? Who knows. After an adrenilin fuelled 2018, I've decided to go 95% cash so that I can sleep easier at night over the next month!
Good luck to you and good to see you in Glen!

I was fortunate enough that my average cost was sub 300p so I could sell with a profit. I've still got 50000 which I hope to sell around 310p.

I have to admit that 3 days of rises has caused me to sell a very sizeable slug of my GLEN holding.

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 4696p with 2268p in cash and 2428p in shares. With current SP of 4000p, the SP would need to rise 17.4% to match. From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 389p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 185p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.

Try Hargreaves Lansdown. They are huge and popular and quite cheap. I can always get a price before executing a deal. They have good support if you need it too.

Ironically, the value of the offer was exactly 4901p a few minutes ago, ie the original value when the offer was first made public. However, the offer value has dropped by 263p due to weakness in the Takeda SP but risen 263p because of a very weak GBP which has increased the cash & share elements. Markets looking very weak today due to Italy woes.

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 4839p with 2273p in cash and 2566p in shares. With current SP of 4120p, the SP would need to rise 17.45% to match. From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 263p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 201p because of fx gains on the cash and share elements.

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 4848p with 2265p in cash and 2583p in shares. With current SP of 4105p, the SP would need to rise 18.11% to match. From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 244p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 191p because of fx gains on the cash and share elements.

w-i-m, I think you were right first time. Merely drifting down with the general market.