Member Info for Redditchrocket

Allow me to jump in with...

-Seems the yanks woke up
- I wouldn't want to be out of this over a weekend

Looking on the Lancet website, it says the following about time to publish after acceptance:-

Swift+ and Fast-track publication
We understand the pressure authors face to have their voices heard first, and we are committed to publishing important papers fast. All randomised controlled trials are eligible for Swift+, our fastest route to publication. Our editors will provide a decision within 10 working days; if sent for review this will include full peer review. If accepted, publication online will occur within another 10 working days (10+10).

So if Tom Wilkinson was notified that it was accepted last Friday on the day of his lecture where we first head it was accepted then ten additional working days would be that would be an unlucky some Friday 13th November deadline date for publishing.

Based on the mention that they normally publish online on Thursdays that would mean that Thursday 12th sounds like the most likely release date based on the house of cards i've built this assumption on...

What time roughly was Blair on R4 this morning please, I'd like to listen in

Just noticed that today's volume seems really muted, is this an epic calm before the storm next week?

You could register your username as Smokey

Be entertaining if the clue was Apple haha

Here's to a pleasant morning RNS...

Use the magic of copy and paste to add your predictions to the list:

faz147 - Invesco
Seeing-2020 - Ark Invest
Alessxito – JP Morgan
PM44 - JP Morgan
Lewbo18 – Ark Invest
BeefcakeBrutus – Goldman
Flutterbutternut – Alphabet
redindi - Ark Invest
terrym – Softbank
Bud_Fox – Conifer
MaxVolume – Morgan Stanley
DR777 - Franklin Templeton Investments
UpDownWeGo - Raymond James
Agm888 vanguard ( outside bet)
shallwe - Ark
Jazzindahouse - JP Morgan
sportraider1 - Capital Group
RedditchRocket - Sequoia

Hey Manifesto

I was probably being too subtle. It was turned into a pivotal trial, that must have been for a reason. That reason wasn't to bypass the need for a phase 3 in the hospital/severe arm so the only reason could be for separate speedy approval in the mild to moderate/home setting. That's how I analyse it

Often you look back at things and see how they make sense but it's hard to put the pieces together at the time. Attempting to do this I have come to the following conclusion...

The phase 2 trial was aimed and mild to moderate (home trial) and also more severe (hospitalised). It was turned into a pivotal trial which indicates that a phase 3 would not be necessary upon successful results. Targets were raised for both arms of the trial yet they weren't exercised on the hospital arm.

We assumed this meant an uptake in the numbers in the hospital setting to get approval but the phase 3 proposed trial ended that line of thought and also focused it's attention on the more severe cases (OSCI 4).

So that leads me to believe that the only remaining reason for the trial to be made pivotal was for treatment of mild to moderate cases in the (care) home setting with an increased dataset.

I believe the quota hasn't been filled and it's not advertised because it's mainly aimed at care homes and mild to moderate stage of the disease and once completed it won't require a phase 3 trial.

The covid app for care homes and virtual wards (founders include Tom Wilkinson) is designed around SNG as the treatment option so once approved it will be completely ready to go.

Critique away

Without more detail on whether the cash was actually needed and who the investor was it's far too early to tell the impact. If cash burn had increased massively or contract payments were delayed then it's bad, if Google just bought in then it's probably positive.

Would have thought with your username it would be at least a 5.25 incher

Hi Eva, you've always been very open with your SNG transactions and last I noted you said you were looking to buy in £200k if it gets to 175, is this still the case?

Perhaps you could call your amount of shares now, it's close to 114,286 shares mathematically so you could choose an amount now and then whoever is first to spot the corresponding trade for the amount you've said could win your praise or an old fashioned book token haha

Just to add to the response Bobby bingo...

As I posted the other day, if you look in detail at the results there were a proportionally higher group of patients in phase 4 versus the placebo group in the phase 2 trials which had the combination of OSCI 3/4.

So not only did we have amazing results it was actually against a sicker treatment group is how I read it. It certainly shouldn't therefore be a concern that the p3 is only focused around this OSCI category 4 group. If anything you could argue that it is more likely to emphasise the mortality and recovery benefits as if all things remain equal and tragically you would expect more negative outcomes in the placebo arm.

Presumably we wouldn't need to get anywhere near our Phase 2 result targets either to be approved?

If we are heralding Dexamethasone for having a c25% improvement in outcomes then all we need is a statistical significance that SNG001 improved outcomes in probably about 35% of patients.

Obviously my numbers are finger in the air but i don't think we need to exactly replicate the 79-82% improvement in phase 2 to proceed although cost considerations mean it would probably have to be a bit higher than Dex as its so cheap.

And if its higher than 79-82% then i'm probably talking to a bunch of millionaires right now.

So this is how they transfer from the impatient private investors to the stickier fingered investment types.

The whole agreement with Clinigen we thought would mean that we could have widespread orders from groups of hospitals and trusts around the world. I'm starting to think that this isn't the purpose of it at all though, it seems more like it's being used as a pre-phase 3 trial so regulators around the world can get a first hand look at SNG and hopefully the positive impact it brings.

Could the EMA decision on Prime be waiting for this initial feedback as we believe it was available to them from 15th Oct? That's my working hypothesis anyways...

What would be the timeline for a vaccine then, would the imminent news be about its success and then it would take till after Xmas to mass manufacture? Or would the positive results and confirmation come at Xmas and then rollout from there?

Have to say SNG seem cursed in news cycles, on July 20th the news was dominated by Oxford vaccine developments and then this past weeks the fundraise and global phase 3 story was dwarfed by mass coverage about (other) interferon treatments being useless...

Last week my predictions were off and the rise above 200 was a few days later, so i'm going to try again.

EMA PRIME approval RNS by 3pm sending the shares over 400p. Just for jokes of course but here's hoping. I'm off to golf and i look forward to my phone going off on the way round.

I noticed the same thing Dibs and wondered if making it single blinded would make it easier and quicker to spot positive trends in recovery that could prompt emergency approval. That's not based on a scientific knowledge and more of a hopeful opinion though...

Saw the same thing as you JoeyD, was enthused by the higher prevalence of OSCI 4s in the phase two trial which made the results even stronger!