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I just dont see the logic in Dukemount doing this, you can buy a secondhand 5mw gas unit and have it shipped to the UK and serviced for < £500k, assuming they go new and its twice that, 2 units maybe costing 2mil? So the remaining 4 mil is for what?
This whole thing just lacks any sort of clarity...
"Dukemount will manage the construction of the two sites " - What are these "2 sites" where are they, who owns them, has planning permission been granted, has an application for high capacity connection to the grid been made and granted? If all the legal side is out of the way IE planning, licences etc are all done and DKE plan to step in and build these 2 units in 12 months, borrow a few mil and after a year be producing electricity and rolling in profits.... Sorry but WHY is someone willing to hand over that neatly wrapped golden goose to DKE? Why is one of the many other companies who have millions in the bank not just going ahead and building these 2 money printing units themselves? Literally someone like InterGen could just throw a team to put 2 small units into action using money in the tea fund and staff that are bored, no risk of dilution, death spiral financing, directors drawing massive salaries and bonuses etc.
You have to be nuts to invest in this right now, unless your able to get answers directly which I have not. Someone needs to find out and print the following:
WHERE are these 2 sites, who owns them and what guarantee is there that DKE will be able to secure the 2 sites if they are able to secure funding.
Has planning permission to site the gas peakers been granted, if not has it been applied for and how long is it expected planning permission would take.
Has any reassurances been provided that a connection to the grid will be facilitated? How long would it take and how much would that cost.
Is it the case that the Capacity Market contracts that DKE are targeting are awarded in auctions and at this time there is no guarantee that DKE will actually secure any contracts and any forecasts and current statements are aspirations only at this point.
There also needs to be some sort of legal guarantees that any funding secured is actually used only for the purpose intended, previous fund raising in the past few years seems to have achieved little more than paying salaries and paying the bills.
What are their choices?
Sell and take a massive loss or keep buying hoping to maintain the SP so as to minimise dilution when/if funding is secured.
I have heard that one of the TR1s was buying in before the CLNs not understanding the impact they would have but was ramping in support of them anyway. Then changed his mind and started ramping because he was going to vote against the CLNs. So what they know? Not a lot by the looks of it so far.
Dont get me wrong, now the CLNs are gone be interested to watch here and see what funding options can be secured and what safeguards are in place. But still, they are low on cash, have 2m MCap with need to raise millions, significant convertible debt at higher levels. Still no confirmation despite emailing asking for it that DKE have the contract to supply electricity and can definatly go ahead with building the 2 initial units with guarantee of price etc. Can anyone provide a link to where it says DKE actually have the rights to build the units and its not still a competition?
The whole thing just seems farcical, I wish the company the best but when you have statements like this:
"The government has announced that by 2025, all new homes will be banned from installing gas and oil boilers and will instead be heated by low-carbon alternatives. The ban is part of a UK action plan to reach carbon net zero by 2050."
With governments looking to phase out gas and oil and switch to renewable and batteries to have a company like dukemount deciding at the 11th hour to switch from nursing homes to mini fossil fuel power plants... Without having any of the cash to do so, needing millions and millions which will only be available from the likes of Alpha Blue Ocean who will not act in shareholders best interests, seriously WTF?
Same, I got abuse for calling out the fact that the JV was with a bloke set up in his living room who will pocket half the profits. The CLN arrangement is just a non starter here, YES I get the argument that at the very end the units will be worth more than the debt and they could mortgage and repay the CLNs or if the SP is high enough and volume is good enough the CLNs could all be converted and gone, but WHO buys the converted shares until then?
The structure is such that with every conversion and dump its inevitable that the SP will more often than not drop, this is a one trick pony shop now so your not going to get block buster RNS's to boost the SP every 10 days to keep the SP up so it will fall and carry on falling. Everyone knows that, and at multiples of the mCap you need millions of new investment constantly to cover the new converted shares. I hear arguments that its currently at shell valuation and cant fall lower? Well yes, if they add 500mil shares and SP drops to 2p the mCap will go UP and only the existing share holders suffer.
At the end of this mess the directors, the insiders, the mates and the people who have helped pump and churn out these CLNs will be able to award themselves shares or warrants at 0.1 or whatever the price is then, they can make themselves whole again. The cash will still be in the bank irrespective of the SP so directors and such can still keep drawing a salary and bonuses.
I pity genuine investors who have been sucked in to this recently because I see it as nothing but a lost cause, vote down the loan and they have nothing, vote for the loan and its death spiral finance.
I went to go have a read of the GM Notice on the website and its 404 not found....
Not a great sign, have not managed to read the notice but from what I have read on twitter the choice is death by dilution or walk away from the finance and they have nothing?
Your arguing about the validity of the Gas Peakers? Seriously? The actual use of the peakers in a year or so is almost irrelevant, they may deliver and may pay the directors a healthy salary and bonuses, but have people not cottoned on to the pumping going on here? What happens when there is a draw down? The CLN holder has 10 days from a previous low to convert and lock in a guaranteed conversion price, if they converted today it would be < 0.3p and that wont change for another week when yes it does jump to 0.4p or something. Literally shareholders need a consistent SP above 0.7-0.8p for 2 full weeks to minimise dilution. If there is ONE SINGLE day of a short attack in that 10 working days you reset the clock and need 10 days higher. Lets be perfectly clear here, if Alpha Blue Ocean get the CLNs tomorrow, and there is enough of a pump and spike and the sp goes lets say to 0.7p they will short as many as humanly possible between that and 0.3p which is what they can convert at. This company is not a charity, they want to make profit. Maybe, just MAYBE they wont death spiral to nothing but likewise they are not going to let the SP climb without taking the opportunity to sell into every rise. And IF it does reach 0.6-0.7p or higher you just have even more warrants and CLNs to convert. This funding is just nuts, but it will only affect share holders. Because guess what? At the end when the CLNs are gone or repaid? The insiders here will be able to award themselves warrants and shares at the destroyed price and restore themselves, but that wont help the average PI.
Are people actually buying this? Oh well, thank you for the pump got out with a smaller loss than expected. Genuinely good luck to holders, but seriously be careful, the CLNs here WILL be converted for shares, if the GM is tomorrow and the draw down happens next week, what SP do you think will be used for the conversion? You literaly need 2 full weeks of a high price without a conversion to lock in a high price, all the while praying that they dont short sell into the higher SP and convert on the final day. There IS a chance they wont, but they have track record, for me this is not worth the risk, they are not a charity, they are out to make a profit and they do this by selling into any rise and converting after. IF the SP does continue to rise then all you have is more warrants and CLNs higher which will be converted and sold also. BE CAREFUL, dont sink your life savings into this. A director saying he thinks his company will be worth 100m is just doing an irresponsible ramp, reality is they MIGHT do well and mCap could continue to rise but the Conversions that will start soon are going to hurt.
This is my last post here unless the CLN arrangement is cancelled, I am not hanging around to try and vote it down. Anyone buying in today on this pump, dont say you were not warned.
I have to be honest, I like the idea, like the science here, but good god I just cannot invest because of the level of ramping on twitter, telegram, LSE, Whatsapp and God knows where else. Seriously if its this good let the company deliver, lets see RNS's. Lets see fair unbiased reviews and analysis. I WILL buy into this company at some point I think, but I am waiting until I stop seeing so many Gifs of diamond hands and rockets coming out of peoples bottoms.
Its not a 1.2m mCap, thats the issue, base may be 1.2m but when they add the shares from the first CLN, the fees, the PR guys shares and the conversions from the second CLN of £3m worth your talking about double, treble more... the number of shares, that directly equates to the mCap so while the SP tanks the mCap continues to increase because of the shares. Added to which the perfect storm of more and more shares that many investors just wont buy no matter how cheap because for many CLN = Do not touch, no matter what. Once these CLNs get drawn down there is just no recovery until all CLNs are repaid or converted and dumped, simple as that. As a financial instrument they need to go, they are destroying small cap companies and they need to be banned. Fine as a % of mCap say < 25% of a company mCap but not this, not 3 times the size....
Worth doing a bit of research on this alpha blue ocean.
https://newsfounded.com/norwayeng/alpha-blue-oceans-element-shares-have-been-promised/
https://newsbeezer.com/norwayeng/do-you-want-to-get-out-of-death-spiral-loans-it-goes-beyond-just-about-every-shareholder-no-matter-how-you-turn-and-apply-it/
"Struggling stem cell company Widecells plummeted after announcing a new £2.7 million funding deal to keep it afloat.
A fund managed by investment firm Alpha Blue Ocean will provide the cash, in an arrangement that analysts at Align Research called a 'death spiral'.
Widecells directors Joao Andrade and David Bridgland agreed to loan their shares to the fund for it to sell, effectively allowing it to make money at the expense of other shareholders.
Shares slumped by 65.8 per cent, or 1.25p, to 0.65p."
I am a TINY shareholder, my shares dont count for much, but seriously people need to vote against this loan, ABO have a history of either shorting companies into oblivion or taking over the board. This is not good for the company. Get rid of this CLN and there may be some recovery. The £1mil CLN atleast had a minimum conversion price.
Well that was £250 quid well spent here....
"Even if it is a death spiral.... the CLNs cant be converted at these levels :)" - Not true
The £500k CLN from before which STILL has not been converted which was extended I dont believe has been drawn down as the conversion price is significantly higher than right now. They COULD be converted but the fact that this has not happened yet leads me to believe that the lender does not want to fork over 500k and lose half of it instantly....
The Fee that was paid in shares was converted at a higher SP so yes thats done, but they were free shares, just means less of a fee.
In terms of todays CLNs:
"convertible at 95% of the lowest daily VWAP in the 10 trading days prior to conversion, plus warrants issued on a 1:4 basis with each tranche at an exercise price of 120% of the lowest daily VWAP in the 10 trading days prior to the issuance of the Notes to which they are attached (other than with respect to the first tranche of Notes, where the exercise price is the lower of (a) GBP 0.00604 and (b) 120% of the lowest Daily VWAP over the ten trading days prior to the issuance of the first tranche of Notes) "
Basically they can start forward selling now, front weight any selling at higher SP and any spikes, then continue selling to depress the SP for 10 days straight before conversion and they are pretty much guaranteed to make a profit. They COULD do this, rinse and repeat, this is why its called death spiral finance as the only direction for the SP is down. Not saying they will, I have looked at their website and they look a little more trustworthy than others I have seen.
Perhaps they will let the SP rise and take ages to sell any, who knows. They could sit back and wait for some big news in the future, a big spike, and basically sell into it right back to where it closed the previous day then do a conversion for the full amount. I honestly feel bad for anyone trapped in here, but people need to be realistic, this is a HUGE loan and to repay it will need alot of PI investors to buy the shares that get dumped, perhaps it will be done carefully so as to not destroy the SP but likewise there is just no incentive for the lender to let the SP continue to rise without selling into. Even if they do repay the CLNs after a few conversions there will be warrants hanging there from previous conversions, again another weight around the neck.
I am NOT taking part in the placing as its too much effort, but the SP is close enough that I am happy to pay a premium on the SP from the placing. I like the openness of it which should prevent too much negative resentment, I also like the detail in the RNS as to what the money is for. Given recent heights, tick of approval from me.
I saw zakmir starting to pump this share so I bought £250 quid not that long ago, I thought the small mcap would mean it stood a good chance of spiking for a quick profit... little dissapointed but glad it was a tiny punt, didnt rate it long term but for a ST play?
So QQ what happens now with the "Unsecured Loan Facility for £1,000,000"?
I take it that it was dependant on the publication of a prospectus which has not been published yet so they have not been able to draw down the first 500k? In which case are Sanderson Capital Partners Limited really going to hand over £500k for 70mil shares that are currently worth £280k? Does Sanderson HAVE to hand over that 500k? that would be good for DKE and shareholders if they can force them to hand over the cash, anyone in communication with the board can clarify this?
And thats my issue, neither you, nor the interview, nor anyone else can come and say "Yes, guaranteed, DKE and their new partner have the contracts to build out these 2 units." Acquiring the rights sounds like a public tender and they are bidding for it which means the lowest bid wins. That means that DKE will be competing against companies which are funded and dont have to rely on external lending to pay for the project, something that will come at a cost. That eats into any bottom line, then the issue of the potential long term income generated which gets split 50:50 with someone who just what? Advises? but is not footing any of the 6mil?
Has anyone any sort of figures for the most optimistic returns from this? Is it just a case of building 2 units that will generate enough revenue over the next 10 years to pay salaries and keep the lights on? If so fair enough but how does that benefit shareholders who pay for the project?
I heard mention of using the first 2 as leverage? Unless the 6mil is all unsecured/cleared IE converted CLNs or placed shares etc then there will be a charge registered against the buildings by whoever funds it so thats out of the question. I have seen people say they already have 3mil... Where? Are you talking about mCap because that is not the same thing as cash on hand. They got £500k recently in CLNs which is not good itself as as soon as the SP hits either 0.65 or 0.7 your going to see those conversions and warrants being executed to recover their capital, I personally cannot see the further £500k being released until they are above that level as I am sure that was a condition. So how much of that 500k is left?
I have talked myself out of it, I keep coming back to see is there an opportunity here and each time I return it looks even worse. And still this complete lack of clarity about 2 units they want to build. Making it sound like its set in stone but never actually saying they have won the contract. Even then whats it worth................... GL all
That does not answer the question if they actually have these contracts for these 2 projects, they have chosen 2 projects, do they actually HAVE them, are they competing against competitors? Thats my question, and if they do whats the guaranteed return?
Your point about electric cars is unlikely btw, you will find that Electric cars will start to fill part of a Vehicle to Grid network where the cars themselves become distributed storage for the grid as a whole with intelligent charging to maximise efficiency of the grid and cut the cost of electricity for the owners. It is extremely unlikely that a surge of new electric cars will do anything over the next 10 years other than stabilise demand, recharging when other demand is low and providing surge capacity when demand is high. This is not a new concept and is being trialled. Lifecycle of the batteries has been an issue as has low rates of metal recovery though recycling, both issues I understand are making significant jumps in recent months and years.
So no I dont see fossil fuel peaker plants having a future in the UK longer term, but if on paper it looks good for the next few years then this may bounce and thats all I care about, its never a long term hold but may be good for a trade. IF its likely they will provide details in future updates that contain numbers, what I am curious about is what those numbers are likely to be as I have zero interest in investing AFTER they are released. But we would need to know with some certainty that they actually HAVE these 2 contracts and not wishing for them, same as they wish for a £100mil MCap.
This is such a fall I want to understand is it justified, if not... worth a trade, so I have 3 questions:
1, The RNS makes it sound like they are going to build 2 peeker projects, but it also makes it sound like they have not actually won the contracts to do so, is that right? Do they actually have any agreement or guarantee that they will be able to build even 1?
2, This JV with Mr Frontroom new business, is he putting in any of the capital or is DKE footing the bill but splitting any future profits 50:50?
3, IF this goes ahead, 12 months down the line they are able to complete these 2 peekers what sort of return are we talking and is it guaranteed? IE if grid storage kicks in and batteries become cheaper for surge demand will there be a minimum guaranteed unit price and volume for the long dated return?
I "Bit" because I happened to see the comment about PHE which is my biggest holding having bought quite alot following recent dips. I check all shares on my watchlist atleast twice a day, and had I not seen the comparison I would not have posted anything atall. I really would be ready to invest here IF I could see what it is the big supporters see, so unless there are lots of insider talks going on behind the scenes or there is leaked memos etc to justify the hype I dont get it. That being said if you have actual information thats not in the public domain please by all means message me, I will review and if I agree I will invest and support this company, but right now, at risk of repeating myself, I just dont get it.
@Lavvocato https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DKE/environmental-energy-project-wajzl243s1rmqbq.html
"HSKB is targeting Capacity Market contracts for the two sites" - Lets be clear here, the word "Targeting" does not mean "signed up" Also at a cost of 6.25mil I cannot see the living room of HSKB footing the bill which means DKE raise probably 9mil+ to fund while HSKB bring "technical expertise".... yea for 50% of any revenue...
You know what, Im not investing, im not posting any more, the more I looked into it to see was I making a mistake the more I just cant believe it. Good luck to investors here, I really dont care if they actually land the contracts or not.