Member Info for Real_Adam-Smith

Congrats to any that timed this, I don’t think you will see 10p again - ever. Mr market has lost his mind at these levels.

I'm still surprised by the lack of commentary on the strategic importance of this asset from a Geopolitical standpoint - a brief mention in the "Sunday Roast" podcast, in the context of reshoring. I realise that the company name is based on it being located in the UK South West, but equally, this is one of the largest known Tungsten deposits in the US controlled WESTERN geopolitical domain. Given that China is seeking to leverage their market dominance in Tungsten supply chain, I find it impossible to imagine that this asset falls in price from here. As a reminder, in February 2025, China implemented export restrictions on tungsten, along with four other critical minerals (molybdenum, tellurium, bismuth, and indium), as a response to increased tariffs from the U.S. This move, which came shortly after the U.S. raised tariffs on Chinese goods, has significantly impacted global supply chains, particularly for industries that rely on tungsten, such as defense, aerospace, and electronics. China is the world's leading producer of tungsten, making its export restrictions particularly impactful. Even if Tariffs on China are reduced, China is never going to allow Tungsten exports that risk being used for military purposes. They are not going to ship the ropes that their enemy might try to use to hang them.

Patience will be rewarded “ Kurt Campbell, former US Deputy Secretary of State, has stated that it will take "a generation" to diversify the US supply chain away from China's dependence on rare earths and other critical materials”.

It is predicted that it will take 3 - 4 months for the west to feel the impact of China export restrictions and licensing, they banned Tungsten exports on Feb 4th 2025 - July 4th next week. Another reason for things getting spicy this week?

Wishing everyone a relaxing weekend after a very good week as folks began to wake up to the intrinsic value of TUN.

Relax - This is an illiquid stock - It should be expected to be volatile as nervous nellies try to time some profit taking. Stand back and look at the big picture and this is a one way bet upwards.

Patience and perspective will i think be rewarded here.

Yep. - Someone is taking advantage of relatively low liquidity and weak hands. It is a gut feel but I think we close nearer to 18p today than 15p - we might even see bit more reflexively and make 20p+ which would be really sweet - Cha Ching - HODL they need yours shares because they really need this Tungsten. Use in drones could be a big driver for military - anyone have any insight on that?

Oh - And buy the dips - Some profit taking is perfectly normal - its going to happen when a stock goes up this quickly - Its an opportunity to add more. Nothing goes up in a straight line.

Value only beginning to be recognised here - Remember that the US/UK/EU cannot be without Tungsten, they failed to invest in their own supply chain over the past 20 years and now China has us by the balls. It is going be expensive for them to prise my stock from my hands - Hold on and wait for the really big money to arrive - it won’t be long after a few more +30% days and volume is building nicely. This investment could be life changing for many. Good luck to all longs.

@sharemans 15p is not at all ambitious - We have 20 years of failing to invest and develop our own critical resources supply chain to catch up on. This asset suddenly became extremely valuable and people are only just now beginning to wake up and realise its importance and value. I say that they can pay us all now for their political incompetence and over reliance on the free markets and buying cheap from state subsidised suppliers. Do not sell - The Military cannot be without this asset - Just remember that, relax and sit back and watch the firework show scramble to gain control of it. Cha ching!

Personally I don’t think so.

The more i look into this the more this looks like a simple law of unintended consequences stemming from the imposition by the US of Tariff’s on China. China for a variety of reasons managed to corner the market for Tungsten and this lead to a failure to invest over the past 20 years on the part of the rest of the world, in particular the US and EU. Suddenly China puts a stop of exports of critical minerals and now the west is in fill blown panic mode, a bit like the Germans after Ukraine, Russian sanctions and Nordstream. What is driving this share price is Geopolitics and the Geopolitics are here to stay. It is not being pumped by anyone other than Donald Trump and China are far too smart to suddenly lay down their cards. Interestingly Almonty are negotiating Tungsten Floor prices - minimum committed long term price pre MTU with no maximum. Military buyers are so desperate that they have no option but to agree. Gives you a flavour of supply and demand and Geopolitics and the expression CRITICAL minerals. Also, no big surprise German bankers are investing here in supply chain diversity for critical military minerals after they just suffered such a major Geopolitically driven supply chain issue with gas and suddenly realised their vulnerability.

At this point, it seems like an obvious asset to invest in on multiple levels - it will likely rocket up with any positive funding news.

From the recent investor presentation posted on the TUN website "A de-risked, brown-field restart of a large-scale tungsten mining operation at a critical turning point for the global tungsten market, with significant price upside" Significant price upside is underlined!!

Additionally, the higher the share price rises, the lower the risk of funding being dilutive; it's a virtuous circle for current holders as long as the share price momentum continues upward, then the more upside there will be. Investors and funding parties. Both are now incentivised to jump on board quickly or else miss out on the "Significant price upside" opportunity.

UK Department for Business and Trade - UK Modern Industrial Strategy Paper June 23rd 2025. Says...As an integral part of the growth mission, the Government will make it easier and simpler for companies to do business, giving them the stability to make long-term investments. We will do this by easing the investor journey and tackling the blockers that undermine confidence and stop them from investing in the UK’s future growth.

iii) Strengthen our economic security through our uplift in defence spending, international collaboration, strategic investments in critical supply chains,

technologies, and energy security, and support to businesses in understanding and mitigating risks.

Seems pretty clear to me that TUN must now be a part of this. "Strategic investments in critical supply chains" What am I missing?

Excellent find thanks. So UKEF willing to provide finance for UK exporters procuring Tungsten from domestic critical mineral miner - TUN. Perfect!! We simply cannot get into production quick enough. So many positive tailwinds here.

With the USA and UK now both attacking Iran and with the EU naming of TUN as being a “Strategic Project" under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act. I would not be surprised to see the trifling $93M arrive very quickly from a US based source. I hope that the TUN CEO is actively engaging with US investment bankers, it would be in the interests of shareholders to see funding come forward ASAP - Engaging with US based I funding sources early before the feasibility project and raising the companies profile in the US with a spot on CNBC Europe and Bloomberg would make a lot of sense at this time.

@shotgunmike 100%. It is not only the land and mineral rights - it is the permits and all that has been done to enable the extraction of the value (Tungsten) from the land. The economic principles still apply.

Respectfully, I did not say anything about the price of milk. I spoke about value creation. Good luck with the dairy farming. All the best to you.

Yes it the mineral content of the Land - The economic principle remains the same whether the land is farmland or land with oil underneath. It is a claim on future production of Milk, Beef, Oil, Tungsten. The owner of the land can extract value as rent in the case of farmland rented out to a tenant farmer or as production of milk in the case of a farmer who owns the land and then utilises capital and labour (factors of production) in order to produce milk. This farmer creates wealth if his costs of production are lower than the price that he obtains for his milk.

Follow-on from original post - for the benefit of investors…. What the economics mean from an investment perspective - They mean that unless there is a sudden shift in the current anti-China geopolitics, that TUN owns a very valuable land asset. This value now underpins the value of the business - irrespective of what the business does from this point onwards. It means that the investment is asymmetric, downside underpinned by new intrinsic economic value, upside dependent on company ability to unlock the intrinsic value. First rule of investing, don’t lose money! What Benjamin Graham described as always buy shares with a margin of safety. The intrinsic value of the Land is the margin of safety here in my view.

This post is for the benefit of our NWF.

Adam Smith is often referred to as the father of economics. In his famous book “The wealth of nations” he identifies the things that make the nation wealthy and to cut to the chase, the answer is productivity. He goes on to identify the three key elements of production, Land, Labour and Capital. In fact only two of these are actually factors of production, Labour and Capital. Land is a claim on future production. TUN owns a chunk of Tungsten rich land, TUN’s land asset represents an economic claim on the future production of anything that is manufactured in the future where Tungsten is needed. Since China has, in response to Western aggression decided that it will no longer supply Tungsten, the economic value of this claim on future production has just increased very dramatically. Which is the reason why the NWF would be wise to support the rapid development and realisation of the intrinsic value locked up in this important and now very valuable national asset. Unlocking the value here would help to pay for the NHS. Politicians would do well to study Economics if they want to be re-elected.

Unclear to me how NWF might be involved but Cornish Metals case study on NWF website perhaps provides some idea. What is clear to me and to Europe is that this is a critical and valuable UK strategic asset. As the share price is now beginning to reflect, i imagine that TUN will now find it much easier to get whatever investment or finance they need to accelerate this business quickly now, momentum is clearly building as realisation dawns on people that being dependent on Russia for Gas (Germany) and being dependent on China for critical minerals like Tungsten (needed for defence) was a stupid position to put ourselves into.

As predicted Tungsten APT price continues to rise while USD falls. Up from $400 per MTU/WO3 to $405 +$5 per MTU since June 5th. These prices are FOB China, need to add transport and insurance costs to get an EU/UK price.

While economically sensitive equities are falling as are Government Debt safe (cough, not safe) assets. Critical Metals and precious metals (Silver and Gold) impacted my geopolitical shifts and war will continue to climb in my view.

https://www.argusmedia.com/metals-platform/price/assessment/tungsten-apt-fob-china--per-mtu-wo3--prices-PA00145020000