Member Info for RayPointer

Ruck is a closet happy clapper 😂

It is outside of Scancell's focus, but Trent Uni and Portsmouth Uni were working on an Immunobody vaccine for this cancer.

https://www.scancell.co.uk/immunobody%c2%ae-vaccine-to-be-developed-for-the-treatment-of-glioblastoma-multiforme

The other point is that Northwest are developing personalised vaccines whereas Lindy is convinced that this approach will be much more expensive than off-the-shelf vaccines

It's almost as exciting as the cricket

It could be any number of reasons why Lindy is delaying the next Modi1 news.

One way of looking at the Modi1 trial is that it is 9 trials in 1:

4 monotherapy trials

3 Modi1 + CPI trials

2 Pre-surgery trials (may have started recruiting)

Lindy may be waiting for initial Modi1 + CPI data in addition to updated monotherapy data before the next update.

I always use the BT Doom and Gloom indicator to decide when to buy

This statement is inaccurate

"the company has also developed the vaccine technology ImmunoBody for the prevention of COVID 19. "

Quiet as a mouse here today

Yeah, you're probably right crumbs. Perhaps the 1 to 40 ratio only applies to survival times.

But then again, I think Lindy did talk about tumours melting away within 4 days in some cases. I'm thinking tumours going within 160 days in a small number of patients would be spectacular.

We just have to wait to see how the two sets of results compare. The DTHs just show the first part of the process.

Https://www.scancell.co.uk/Data/Sites/1/media/docspres/agm-presentationnovember-2022_final.pdf

It's worth re-visiting page 11 of last year's AGM presentation showing the mouse results from the pre-clinical research.

If I read this correctly

1 All mice not treated with Modi1 had died by day 28.

2 The best result was for mice treated with Modi1 on day 10 after tumour implant although there was very little difference between mice treated at day 7 to those treated at day 10. The difference is very likely not statistically significant.

3 Of this group 80% were still alive after day 50 (50 days after implant and 40 days after Modi1 dose)

Now, if Burble's rule of thumb (1 mouse day = 40 human days) is correct, 80% of the day 10 group were still alive 2000 (50x40) equivalent human days after implant i.e. about 5 and a half years.

Obviously, these are mouse results with no guarantee that the results will be replicated in a human trial.

However, it's easy to see why Lindy was so excited at the AGM with the very early results at that time.

At this time in November 2022 it was approximately 2 months after the first patient received the full dose of Modi1 (cohort 2 as RNS'ed on Aug 16th) i.e. less than 2 mouse days.

Lindy will no doubt be looking at p values i.e. the probability of achieving the same result by pure chance.

You will notice that for the mice groups treated at day 7 and that at day 10 we has p < 0.0001 i.e. less than 1 hundreth of 1 percent of achieving this result by chance.

As pointed out over the weekend, a lot of trials are looking for a p value of < 0.05 (i.e. 5 percent).

We are now at just less than 10 months after that Aug 16th RNS i.e. about 7.5 mouse days into the trial.

However, let's just say for sake of argument, that the patient recruitment has been at a constant rate over those 10 months, then the average mouse days for the patients recruited so far would be half that of that first cohort 2 patient i.e. less that 4 mouse days.

The other important factor is the number of patients dosed.

So, as this number increases and the average time since first does increases, if the results are good, the p value will keep declining. I am guessing here that Lindy will be keeping a close eye on the overall p value for the trial.

Maybe Lindy will be looking oat more than one p value, one for survival and 1 for tumour regression perhaps.

Just a few ramblings to take my mind off thinking of matron and that cold spoon.

This perhaps gives us some perspective of where we are in the timeline of this trial.

Given the choice I would opt for multiple whacks with the cold spoon by matron 🤣

In a situation like this you have to look at the scraps of evidence and make your own mind up.

1 The initial results were encouraging

2 There are now nine non-Scancell contributors to the latest poster as opposed to 5 on the previous poster.

3 Scancell are attending major conferences

4 Lindy said she wants to wow the world with the next update.

5 Full dosing in combination with a CPI has now started

6 Martin Diggle is telling prospective clients that the SP is derisory

7 Rats is playing golf with Knowlesi :-)

It's obvious (to me at least) that Lindy wants the data to be statistically significant on the next update and will not be swayed by the conference calendar.

It's interesting that the poster for the AACR conference had 5 contributors from outside Scancell, whereas, for the ASCO conference, that number has increased to 8.

But it does look like crackin has doubled his target price to 10p.

A clear bullish sign :-)

The cat's out of the bag now

And hopefully the first of many cats.

What great sentiments from the lady herself!

She gets to enjoy her grandchildren, how precious is that?

So pleased for you CW.
A great weight off your mind.
All the best

I assume the following:

You would wander round the posters and find the
Scancell one with Christian hovering around it. You will then be able to have a discussion with Christian.
The abstract, when it appears, will just be a written summary of what is to appear on the poster.

An abstract is just a summary of the poster (or presentation if there is one). Nice to see Christian getting in on the act. He's catching on to the Scancell lifestyle :-)

"The question now becomes "by how much" does it exceed standard of care and "in how many indications". That will determine the value of the product."

I agree with Konar that this is the crucial question.
The information we have at present tends to suggest that Modi1 is maybe improving on the current standard of care.
But we will only know the size of the gap (if any) between the current standard of care and Modi1 results as more statistically significant results emerge.

It will also be interesting to see whether or not there is the expected improvement in data between the monotherapy cohorts and those with CPIs. That comparison is further away than updated data from the monotherapy cohorts.

Then we also have the pre-surgery cohorts which, in theory, could show an even greater improvement.

So, in summary, there is a long wait before we get the complete picture.
That's not to say that successive updates begin to give a clearer picture and, more importantly, a picture that grabs the attention of big pharma. I would guess that Lindy would want to complete the trial before considering a Modi1 deal. Who knows though, she may receive an offer she cannot refuse :-)

The other thing that Lindy explained was that the trial was designed to find the sweet spot.
With 4 indications and 3 modes (monotherapy, combined with CPI and prior to surgery) we are a long way to determining that sweet spot. In fact, we may end up with more than one sweet spot.

We have to be aware that being successful in mice experiments in no way guarantees success in humans.
However, we should also note that the timescales are very different with Burble estimating that 1 mouse day is equivalent to 40 human days.