Member Info for Ramptastico

We're entering some AIM index or group, hence the fund buying.

Agree - it's phenomenal and crucially in CBM like TLOU.
Not my writing but this sums it up well.

"Tony Gilby the CEO has extensive experience in coal bed methane projects. He was instrumental in establishing successful Coal Seam Methane at Arrow Energy in Australia.

Arrow Energy listed on the ASX on 17 August 2000 at $0.20 valuing the company at A$25.6m. At the time of it’s takeover, 9 years later, Arrow was valued at $5 billion with a share price of $5.87.

After his time at Arrow Energy, Tony went on to become Managing Director of Sunshine Gas.

In August 2006 Sunshine Gas had a market cap of $98m. In 2008 BG Group acquired Sunshine Gas as part of an AU$5.2 billion takeover of Queensland Gas Company Limited in 2008. “The price was very good for our shareholders,” comments Gilby, “so we weren’t complaining.”

This valued Sunshine Gas at around $1.1billion."

As I've said, going from Gilby's prior history, I think a buyout is most likely.

I don't think its a hugely useful exercise to attempt to guess when this is going to occur. Africa does often move at a different pace to other countries, but I feel the ongoing problems in Southern Africa with Eskom's loadshedding, massive debts, and crumbling power stations should put the project at the forefront of the government's ambitions.

All I can say is that as TLOU tick off the various boxes and project de-risks the likelihood of a takeover increases. Aside from the RFP rejection early last year, which has now been accepted, the plan has gone very smoothly. It's almost like they've done this before...

I plan on 20p at least. Once TLOU get full grid access and first 10MW up and running I think the company will be bought, in similar fashion to Gilby's last two projects.

Holding proof: https://ibb.co/ByCSB3S

Now holding 1.1 million shares.

I've bought another 150k this afternoon.

Does seem to be bouncing. Gone from -10% to -3.49% throughout the day.
Market makers have probably covered their positions, so price should move up. All imo.

Presumably some more near term news coming here in next few weeks too.

Volume is pretty low today, which indicates the market makers are walking the stock down in an attempt to cover their short (this is just how they operate, its not nefarious, they have to make a market somehow). Referred to as a tree shake.

Not picking up many sellers, indicates most holders here are pretty sticky, after all the action yesterday.

Have been topping up throughout the day - ever since the proactive interview basically leaked the news this morning

Very surprised it hasn't risen more than this. Spiked up 50% and now come all the back down to 20%. Tree shake? Raise incoming? What could it be holding this back?

In case people don't have an FT subscription:

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https://www.ft.com/content/d9e06710-60fa-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e

Serica Energy, which started life in 2004 as an explorer drilling wells, switched strategy in 2015 and began acquiring North Sea assets that were already in production from the majors. That year it struck a deal with BP for an 18 per cent stake in the Erskine field, through which it avoided having to raise capital by handing BP a 5 per cent stake.

In November last year, Serica completed a deal involving four complex transactions with BP, Total, BHP Billiton and Marubeni, the Japanese trading and investment conglomerate. Those transactions gave it interests in the Bruce, Keith and Rhum assets and involved a profit-sharing arrangement with BP, BHP and Total. Its production has increased to 30,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from 2,000 barrels/day at the end of 2017.

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https://www.ft.com/content/d9e06710-60fa-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e

Tony Craven Walker, executive chairman of Serica and a North Sea veteran, has been replicating with Serica a model he had already tested with Monument Oil & Gas, once a leading UK independent, which was sold in 1999.

“We started off [with Monument] by buying production from Petrofina, BP and a couple of other people. After we had the production, we then expanded it into a bigger portfolio of exploration, development, appraisal, all sorts of things that we could fund on the back of the production,” he said.

Mr Craven Walker cited the 2016 merger between Norwegian independent Det norske oljeselskap and BP’s Norwegian unit to form Aker-BP as the kind of deal Serica would like to do next to secure more development and appraisal assets. “We need to merge ourselves together with a portfolio,” he said. 

Mitch Flegg, Serica’s chief executive, said he did not see companies such as his in competition with the private equity-backed players such as Chrysaor but rather operating in a “different niche” by taking on assets where there are issues to be resolved — with the ownership structures for example.

“We are prepared to take things that have real problems that need solving,” Mr Flegg said.

*buyout by a larger entity

As previously said (was shouted down by NewKOTB), UK Nat Gas will remain low for the foreseeable future (or at least with any upside significantly capped), as long as the wave of cheap shale LNG continues to flood into Europe.

After a recent spike, the gas price has normalised again at recent lows. https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=142677&span=3

When valuing the shares, don't make any assumptions about upward pricing of Nat Gas.

Tony Craven Walker has hinted the next deal will be a merger. I think they will try to get more balance in the portfolio to achieve a more equal oil/gas split, in part because of low gas prices going forwards.

I'd like some poster's thoughts here:

To me using the term merger also suggests scale, and maybe even a buyout larger entity? ....giving TCW the big lump sum he'd like in retirement, letting him focus more on his charitable activities. What does using the term merger mean to this board?

Reference here: https://www.ft.com/content/d9e06710-60fa-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e

I hold a lot of SQZ, so am watching with excitement.

Afternoon rally starting to kick off... People coming back from lunch

I'm with Nickel Investor here. Have no idea where you're getting this 4% rise etc. from. Maybe you're looking at the US Natural Gas market?

UK natural gas prices are available to view here: https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=142678&span=3

Price has halved since October 18. I'm a long term SQZ holder but I'm much less bullish on Nat Gas going forward than I was when I first bought the shares. Management comment on this area in the upcoming results will be interesting.

There was a 9th of March operations update last year.

Are we due an operations update this week then? Or is there nothing until FY results?

Can you explain then how they bought yesterday, yet still own no stock as per the RNS?
Looks like they were short.

I think it might mean that Finncap were short IOG? Have bought the stock yesterday to cover their short...
Not hugely positive to see IOG's advisor's shorting IOG

Placing was heavily oversubscribed so I think they could have gotten away with a higher placing price actually.

Any "dumping" has so far been absorbed very well

Are we expecting any updates before FY 18 results (which are presumably in April judging by last year)?

April is annoyingly late to publish FY results...