RE: General related crypto info12 Oct 2022 15:02
In light of the upcoming Pendulum Parachain Auction and the subsequent launch set for early 2023 I have been looking at the crypto market as a whole to revue trends and attempt to put some viable guess as to where bottom is and when a turning point may come. I am of the view that bottom has roughly been hit, I could be completely wrong, but I have been seriously accumulating various crypto assets over the past 6-8 weeks accordingly, ready for the next bull run. Briefly here is why.
The basic gauge of the crypto market is Bitcoin, Various Altcoins have their own individual prospects but as a market wide measure Bitcoin (for me) is the test.
There have been 5 Crypto crashes.
2011 – Having reached $32 it fell within a few days to $0.01. This crash was largely due to the Mt Gox breach where 850,000 BTC was stolen.
2014 – It is important to remember that this is the beginning of crypto and it took a couple of years for BTC to recover but by 2013 BTC reached $100 and then surged to reach $1000 by the end of 2013 but then entered the second bear market falling to a bottom of $270 by the end of 2014, at which time it remained pretty static until Aug 2015 when the next bull run took it back to $1000 by the end of 2016 and by the end of 2017 BTC reached an all time high of $20,000.
2018 – Bear market no 3. BTC fell to $3200 by the end of 2018 (a 60% drop) but by early 2019 BTC rallied back to $10,000 and remained fairly static until a drop back to $5000 caused by the covid outbreak in early 2020. From that low point BTC made the big rally hitting around $63,000 by April 2021
Bear market no 4. BTC then experienced a kind of mini bear market falling back to around $29,000 in a 5/6 month period but it didn’t last long as by Nov 2021 BTC was knocking on the door of $70,000.
Bear market no 5 (now). The price started falling late 2021 and has continued falling to around $37,000 and started rallying again before the Terra collapse in May and has since fallen again to a low of around $18,000 and has now settled to roughly around the $19/20,000 mark in June/July 2022 where it has now been trading sideways for the last three months.
So roughly speaking
Bear market No1 – Duration 185 days and Reduction 40%
Bear Market No2 – Duration 415 days and Reduction 83%
Bear market No3 – Duration 365 days and reduction 84%
Bear Market no 4 – Duration 150 days and reduction 62%
The current bear market has now been around 330 days (started Dec 2012) and has a rough reduction of $70% from its all time high.
So for me we are bouncing along the bottom and time to accumulate and hopefully Pendulum can time its Parachain launch during the early stages of the turn next year. All IMO.
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