Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I can't invest in a company, that I can't trust to give good or bad news when it is long overdue. Sold up. May buy again if Carapa does indeed turn out to be black gold, but good news is usually out as quick as bad. Either way, I'd need a good reason for the delay to invest in Tullow again.
Carapa was already being drilled on 24th Oct (ECO update on that date). It's now more than 7 weeks (8 weeks on Thursday) since then. It's more likely that they're assessing the oil they've found, than it's dry, which could have been announced as soon as they'd given up, which, more than likely, would have already happened, if it was going to.
HSBC downgraded Tullow Oil today, with a target price of 50p. Explains the selling. If Tullow had drilled a Cretaceous well and a Tertiary, instead of two Tertiary, earlier this year, the company might not be in the state it's in now.
From the Eco (Atlantic) Oil and Gas Ltd Unaudited Results and Business Update (20th Nov): "Oil tested to date appears it is not dissimilar to the commercial heavy crudes currently in production in the North Sea, Gulf of Mexico, the Campos Basin in Brazil, Venezuela and Angola."
"The fact the oil is already hot in the reservoir, and mobile, and has high quality porous sand to travel through, helps to eliminate a great part of the conventional heavy oil challenge." Most of the oil in the Middle East is "sour", same goes for the Gulf of Mexico, Venezuala (which is extra heavy). There are plenty of refineries for this stuff, especially while OPEC, Iran and Venezuala are producing less.
The company had a considerably higher share price, before the Guyana oil was discovered. I know Uganda was a disappointment, but even so, buying at these levels is a bit of a no-brainer, especially as Tullow could, as others have said, make an attractive takeover target. That may well be the best way forward for them anyway - would mean whoever took them over would not need to farm down Uganda.
I would also be extremely surprised, given the current outlook for oil prices, if Tullow hadn't already taken steps to guarantee the lowest price it is paid for even more of its future output. The truth is, nobody knows yet. Perhaps I'm taking a terrible gamble, by thinking that this British company knows its business, and that their senior management aren't a bunch of lying shysters. Perhaps Not.
Thanks kwzo. I increased my investments in Tullow yesterday, after reading the recent article(s) in The Standard (got the links in a timely Google search for Tullow Oil), but before the Canaccord Ingenuity, and have no interest in increasing my stake, which is why I left you lovely guys the fantastic tip this morning. I could, and probably should, have left my mouth shut, to maximise any ill gotten gains. Another tip. West Africa isn't near the Middle East.
No Problem. Will Do. In my experience, and, dare I say it, that of many others, if some numpty costs you the price of a new car, and you say nothing, they're going to do it again. It's all for a better world! Have a nice day. I'm busy off to the Pub to get stuffed.
Your link gives the same information as Canaccord did. You clearly haven't read my post, any more than Canaccord read to the bottom of the article in "The Standard". Unless they have some other reason to believe that the "Tullow Country Manager", an employee of a British Company, is deliberately giving out misleading information. I guess we'll see in a few days, whether 1), Tullow Oil is a respectable company, or 2), whether there are too many people employed these days in the Finance Industry, with the ability to read and understand English, but the attention span of a gnat!
Yesterday's Canaccord Downgrade, in the ShareCast News, citing a report in The Standard of Kenya, is presumably based on the following article, of January 30th: - Job cuts, uncertain deposits cast shadow on Kenya�s oil project: https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001267796/job-cuts-uncertain-deposits-cast-shadow-on-kenya-s-oil-project The "lower" estimate, referred to by Canaccord, of 250m barrels recoverable, is, in the article, "informed by a silent rule in the oil exploration world which assumes that what can be recovered is usually between 20 and 30 per cent of the discovered amount". Which is completely non-controversial. The argument is over what the "discovered amount" really is. If you read the whole article, what it in fact says, is that a new assessment of both the total, and the recoverable reserves, has been commissioned by The Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, the results of which are planned to be announced in Tullow's Financial Statement, along with the Full Year Results on 7th February. In addition, Tullow Country Manager Martin Mbogo is quoted as saying: "The claim (of lower than reported recoverable oil) is not correct. The pmean (recoverable oil) resource guidance of 750 million barrels remains consistent with our latest analysis� we will provide a more detailed update on the range of resources and development plans in February," said Tullow Country Manager Martin Mbogo. "If the resources had changed to the degree that is being suggested, we would be bound by stock exchange rules to update this, which is not the case." Mr Mbogo further noted: "When we state that we have pmean resources of 750 million barrels, these are discovered oil resources that we expect to recover." According to Mbogo, the total oil reserves in the Lokichar Basin could be as high as four billion barrels of which 750 million barrels are recoverable. The four billion barrels as the total reserves is the new information that Tullow Oil has not published in the past, and only volunteered the information after a back and forth with Financial Standard. I guess we'll see.