Member Info for Rachel2

Interesting movement, looks like the SP is assuming that PY figures benefited from exceptional trade from a small number of clients in one corridor. I suspect that some element of this is probably true, the big question is have they increased the number of active users by a reasonable % and has the revenue per client decline been reasonably moderate? I personally hope so :).

They should be sceptical of the management. The direct investment performance look very poor indeed and really questions the NAV calculation. I suggest that more significant negative surprises in the years ahead, is highly likely. No wonder the CEO has changed the strategy, however unwinding / managing this hidden problem area will require some creative accounting.

Kotichava - So analysis from Cab P website shows analysts expecting Income in 2024 to be circa £137.4m. ie No growth from 2023! Your number of £139.3m is basically in line with zero to min growth in top line. Cap P website quotes adj. EBITDA consensus of c£54.2m for 2024. ie a decline of circa 15 to 20%. This makes some sense given that H1 23 looks like an exceptional trading half which may not be repeated. If this is reasonably accurate I would expect basic EPS to be at risk of falling below the 14p of 2022. Certainly not a World Class BOD from a communications perspective :). Prob. feels like fair value, given the poor communication, is around the £1.10 mark with a likely undershoot to happen in the short term. Have I misunderstood the available information and extrapolated badly?

I do not seem to be able to find any publicly available forecasts. Looking at last years accounts and extrapolating some numbers, I would be very happy to see Income increase to circa£165m & AdjEBITDA circa£65m for YE24. Price target c£1.90? Just worried about H1 numbers as PY figures will take some beating.

It would be helpful to the market if they gave an update for H1 later this month. Being a transactional business, they should have enough visibility to do so. Probably will take a little longer as they decide on how to explain the possible volatility of income streams :)

"and the board has been ringing around investors last week assuring them there won't be another profit warning and that they'll hit the revised targets of 20% growth this year."

Where do I find the source for the above?

The chair gave her message only days after the surprise warning. She "expected" it to bounce back. Let's hope she is getting better at DD. I just hope the company is profitable and cash generative on a monthly basis.

"Tell what profitable banks are on a historic or future p/e of 4 please asartata?"

Barclays are around 4, others pretty low PE of 5 & 6.

Ann Cairns' recent article in the Sunday Times left me feeling rather uncertain about her grasp on the current situation. Confidence is paramount in the world of FinTech and banking. With Cab Payments making negative headlines and causing a significant plummet in their stock price, it's quite likely to rattle clients with substantial account balances. A sudden surge in customer withdrawals could prove disastrous, especially if their investments in debt securities lack quality and appropriate maturity dates. Net Interest Income remains a crucial revenue source.

Furthermore, it's not entirely clear how the recent increase in headcount over the past few months will impact the underlying cost structure moving forward. The market is now anticipating a substantial drop in profits for the second half of the year. It might be prudent for Ann to reevaluate her position in light of these developments.

The recent update undeniably prompts a critical examination of the competence and integrity of the CEO and Chair, and this substantial issue emerges merely months following the IPO. It is my sincere desire to witness a substantial acquisition of shares by Anne, who, I imagine, must be experiencing considerable discomfort amidst this regrettable episode.

"The big fund that have holdings from before today will be the ones sweating bullets with the 70% drops, considering how bad the market has been for the past year.

They will be averaging down like mad to get an even boat."

Professionals don't average down.

Very interesting. I wonder how long it will take brokers to fill the large sell orders! The recent valuation failed to account for income volatility. I feel that there is still more downside in the SP before it hits a floor IMO.

Given the current rise in Gilt yields and the significant slow down in subscriber growth, I tend to agree that we are unlikely to see the share price recover anytime soon. Would be very surprised to see the price below £6 given the cash generation robustness with platform businesses. However, expect it to hover in the 6's while the current macro conditions persist.

Probably a fair price now. Significant cost base will hold back share price for some time.

I also invest for dividends and dividend growth. If one of my investments stops dividend payments, I always sell. If they cut the dividend, I will need to consider if the new amount meets my hurdle rate and looks likely to grow going forward.

Hoping for good progress on digital and importantly (for me), dividend clarity. The price will be hostage to macro events for some time IMO.

I completely get the significant timeframes involved. My point being…..‘bots’ profitable comment. Is it accurate?

Tom

Looking at the company again, don’t you see any value point? Net debt plus current MC gives Enterprise value circa £3.25BN. Less than 1x Revs. Some debt reduction in the past 12mths but probably investment going forward will mean debt rising. However, net debt is very modest at present. Looks very interesting to me now after last weeks fall.

Tim1234. Simple …… to get insights for the future on peoples greed.

No…background sells are causing the bottleneck. MM’s. Are keeping the market as orderly as possible on the way south. Honestly ??

Yes you are…….newtothis ??