Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Appreciate it.
It amazes me how much some people don't get it that streaming companies NEED cinema to justify the cost of creating the blockbusters in the first place. Cinema audiences pay so they don't have to.
Most people stream to save money and get inclusive content.
Streaming already said NO to Bond as too expensive. Could they afford it? Yes, as a one-off. But for every blockbuster? No chance. So it would be a frivolous waste of their profits and irk investors big time, likely crashing their SP.
Streaming companies KNOW they will get the film 6+mths later on and that is enough for their business model.
They COMPETE for HOME VIEWING. That is their market.
Somewhat exaggerated.
Not what he was when he was young? Fair enough.
But he handles a long, detailed speech quite competently. You can't do that if you're out of it.
We may get the first female president in the next 4 years. Odds game.
Biden sometimes puts his foot in it. Trump just never gets out of it.
Go figure.
Personally, we MUST move out of fossil fuels. We just need to do this on a phased basis, since we don't have the infrastructure in place yet for a world-wide alternative. But that alternative is the only future where we can prosper as a species.
The alternative if taken on board should be a massive creator of jobs. Bit like going from the world before computers to after. Somethings have to change.
Ok, the US appears highly likely to going with Biden, so no stimulus before Feb 2021 now that Nancy and Mnuchin still have nothing on the table and the republicans will vote everything down. A lame duck gov until then probably will do squat but bicker to the press.
So the market will want to retrace downwards under the sense of covid numbers getting worse, and the expectation that this will continue.
The market will take some confidence from a unified government if, as some expect, the democrats take congress and the senate, taking new legislation out of the republicans hands. Biden has also suggested back-dating stimulus help to where it's needed.
If/when this starts to get factored into the market, we may see the downswing start to move back up, sentiment wise, especially now the suspension on vaccine phase 3 trials is now over having confirmed recent illnesses (and a death) where not due to the vaccine itself but coincidental.
So I'd expect a couple of volatile days and, if the polls do not tighten significantly as we approach Nov 3 but continue to confirm Biden and a democratic Senate, then for things to improve in the rest of the week. Basically clarity restoring confidence.
Market is generally down, based on the latest covid spikes worldwide.
The fear being factored in is not so much a long term lockdown but that covid is going to be here until a vaccine is not so much ready but generally AVAILABLE. So covid local lockdowns seems to be the market sentiment.
This is not so bad since it's at least a realistic picture, for lenders and creditors to the cinema industry in general, in that liquidity will probably be need on a month-by-month rolling basis until mid 2021.
Since this is going to be a general market issue, lenders and creditors will be forced to think long term income stability rather than short term income. In this respect cinema traditionally has a natural advantage over many other markets.
The recent Bond to streaming question will help stabilise this, since it is now abundantly clear that streamers can't/won't pay the big money needed for blockbusters to by-pass the cinemas. In other words, we can expect the future to retain both streaming and cinema as naturally complimentary and, in fact, ideal since providing multiple stable income streams for studios.
The very near picture is simply a question of that liquidity, most of which can be offset by extended maturity dates with payment holiday.
Creditors and lenders alternative would either be total loss of monies owed or very unstable alternative retail options. The last 6+ months move to online would appear to make that alternative very unstable, reinforcing the view that cinema would actually be the more stable future revenue option, and probably worth protecting for that reason.
So things are going to be volatile for both panic among holders AND shorters until lenders/creditors get the picture. Excuse the pun.
@insi
You seem focused on going to live on a cave with covid staying here for ever.
So why waste time shorting? Or anything?
By your estimate you'll have nowhere to spend your money or anything left to buy.
I appreciate you don't actually believe this. So why work so hard to give that impression?
If you follow the news closely, you will see that it was considered for a fee of $600M+.
This was not taken up by the streamers. So not on streaming.
Period.
In other words, streaming has set its max price well below this and the studios will now be stuck with cinemas. At least fr blockbusters.
Period.
@henri665
Yep.
Potentially. If they saw the drop coming, they can load up cheap.
So they agree to the same outcome of refinance with equity intact. But inherit a new business where they still have to pay lenders, no income for now and still recover there own losses they just wiped out?
They would likely prefer cine to survive, no loses, no lenders to pay as the otherwise business owners.
Lenders who kill a business do so for the assets, where those assets reduce losses. Appreciably.
Their logical option is not to lose anything. Or much.
The question is ultimately about covid.
If C-19 stays here and things do not improve, 'we all go home' and find a cave to live in that no-one else knows about. Stocked up with tins of beans etc, etc, etc.
Otherwise, perspective, patience and the world recovers. Hurt, sore, but recovers, heals.
@sg
Sorry, but can't stop laughing now....
Point taken.
However, Debenhams struggled to make money in good times. So a different business prospect.
At the expense of Mooky's @250m creditor who (for now at least) has control of his 20% shares?
There goes your gut again.
They have tablets for indigestion you know.
Shorters need/hope for holders to panic.
If you don't they will.
Tend to agree, the stable pre-opening price is 60-70p if/once finance is settled. Rising further once covid horizon is in clear sight.
This means we are approaching a binary situation of either all or nothing.
Shorters will start to close positions (if for no other reason than a 'just in case' basis). Some will hold and either make a mint or loose one.
So we're going to see daily volatility spike up and down a bit MORE than normal. Binary situations do this.
If you accept survival, with equity by and large intact, the remaining shorters will have to start to make for the door, which won't be wide enough for all off them, so will have to pay a premium to get through.
Day traders will be waiting for this and make the shorters position even worse as they also try and buy a shortening supply of shares to trade the up-spike. Waiting for the profit take may not be enough of a drop-back for left-over shorters and will also make selling high and buy-in back cheap quite dangerous. We would likely get 2 or 3 upward spikes.
The big Sky scoop was really stating the blindingly obvious re Cine bringing in someone to help with negotiations and, as you mention, exaggeration does sell.
For those who said Mooky overloaded with debt, the market didn't agree when Regal was bought. In fact SP went up at the prospect of all those synergies it represented. We have an economy that leverages debt precisely for the purpose of mergers and acquisition. Creditors live off this simple fact.
Quite true.
Basically Cine have got the lenders/landlords money.
Cine do not own the cinemas themselves so asset wise, a fire sale gives lenders/landlords squat.
Cine survival, equity intact, is key to getting their money back. In fact key to a future stable payer.
The question will be all of it? Or improved terms/delayed maturity with payment holiday to cover extended maturity.
With deferred maturity/payment holiday the need for more cash reduces. Some landlords can afford payment holidays probably in exchange for knowing they'll get the money when covid is sorted and extra payments made from future income (ie not paid out for a while to shareholders)
Forgot to add. Only real last-analysis risk is: Will covid be here forever without solution?
If yes, then we all go home.
If not, then money is not in question. It's JUST a question of time for it to start back up again. probably in quantity.