Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
IP, it was alleged claims that have no real merit. It has never been anything other than a disagreement between shareholders, certainly not as far as a court case.
It was discussed to death last year around Sept / Oct time. Essar M don't have a leg to stand on, their parent company are in dire straights, they have a weak case which is adamantly refuted by ShoreCan and EM don't have any money.
Rift, the initial program in 2017 was to drill a single well, requiring less investment, less logistics. We probably didn't need Trafigura / significant service financing for that plan. It has since grown to 3 to 4 wells in a field development plan, then up to 28 producing wells over time. It has grown arms and legs in to a truly monster project now! All that needs additional planning, additional reservoir design, well design, logistics, front and back end financing etc. etc.
We are almost there, we have ticked a lot, if not all, the boxes associated with the technical aspects and most of the regulatory / government approvals. We now have to get services / final financing in place. That is, in relative terms, not that far away and progress is being made, albeit slower than we all would like. I've explained my take on the delay since August below, which I think is reasonable. I do think we'll get there.
Wideyed, we recieved a letter from EM that could quite easily of spiralled in to legal action. No service provider would sign then. We had one preferred service provider then. In the interim of the EM dispute, we recieved a further letter of intent from a second service provider so that raises an action to test two offers. Then the oil price started falling at the end of October and continued to the end of the year. By that time, we've got 3 service providers! Follow it and you can see layers of complexity being added.
Yes, I do. The technical work in getting the FDP done was a major hurdle. That is out the way, so approval for transaction in Essar Nigeria shares follows. Services and the final financing package is the only major hurdles left. With 3 on the table, we will reach agreement with 1. Just don't need any more spanners in the works
FDP was presented in its final form. Still waiting confirmation of approval but stated through emails to IR that it has been approved. That happened before year end. That is very significant news and allows transaction of shares to be transferred to COPL. Bob, it was explained, whether you want to believe it or not, that the huge down swing in oil prices forced the company and the service provider to test the robustness of the project in terms of returns. Oil price dipped to $50 barrel. If it continued the project would of been unsustainable. Unfortunate, but it is a valid reason. If you work out the financials yourself, there is no imminent placing. All the positive aspects of the asset, the potential, has been forgotten because of a small delay and a hatred of Arthur. It's becoming a witch hunt imo.
Hi RK. Sorry, missed your post first time around. I think Arthur is taking quite a lot of the brunt for this, some of which I think is fair, some it I don't. I think quite a lot of the work is being done by Kola and Shoreline. He and Tunde were/are on the ground sorting out the government approvals. I have mentioned previously, Arthur can be blamed for possibly misleading Shareholders or inflating expectations or whatever, but the process of getting approvals, signing services etc. is out with his hands. I don't think any other CEO could possibly get that done any faster, that is just the nature of the beast we are working with. To be fair to him as well, I think the development plan in 2017 was a lot smaller than the one we have presented and approved now.
Whilst I appreciate the recommendation and backing, I would have to turn down a role like that. I am and remain a LTH but I am sceptical about how it would work. COPL for sure would point us in the direction of IR.
He doesn't say end of Q2 for services deal. He says finalising project financing by end of Q2. He also goes on to say in one of the interviews that if financing is on track, then services can be arranged ahead of time. It's a ~$120M dollars financing package for the whole project that has since grown arms and legs over the course of 2 years. One well has now become 3 to 4, so obviously the financing required has increased.
There are 3 service providers in advanced discussions now that the FDP has been presented and approved. They're not going to just commit to $120M without doing their own due diligence, planning, legal paperwork etc. etc. That all just takes time, couple that with needing to get permits, permissions etc. Probably other factors as well. It all needs to fall in to place before a massive finance commitment like that is signed. It needs to be air-tight from all sides - COPL, Shoreline, Service Provider, Government. They all have a say.
Whilst I was and still am disappointed by the delay, I'm trying to remain rational and take my own emotions out of the equation. I don't think anyone here actually knows how much work, due diligence, planning goes in to one of these drills, particularly one that is funded by 3rd parties. If we keep trying to find injustices and problems with it, of course we'll eventually perceive something to be amiss. It might not be true but we'll find it nonetheless. Can't a delay just be because its taking longer than expected? Or does it have to be blown in to a conspiracy?
This is the email received from IR a a couple weeks ago.
"Election rumours and speculation have been propagated on the bulletin boards. I have said it's not an issue. History is a wonderful thing. Nigeria has never nationalised any asset, nor have they taken away or changed the contract terms of any asset due to an election or during times of stable government. Our project has been approved, but due to the elections we have been asked to keep quiet so that those in the country that want to make an issue of it cannot. All others have been told the same thing to make business apolitical. Our Contract is in good standing and as such is not at risk, let alone from fabricated concepts that have no root in history in the near or far past."
Our project has been approved....
No we don't all know that, Bob.
We hounded him for months to get an update, that is what we got. There is a delay, it happens, especially with so many moving parts and the money involved, the lack of framework in Nigeria. It's hard to get in, but once we're in, we're in big. A delay does not mean the ship is sinking, nor does it mean Arthur is intentionally trying to sink it and lose us all money. If there was ANY bad news, he is obligated by market rules to disclose that information.
Don't get me wrong, I am as annoyed as anyone, but some of the suggestions are counter-productive. Think of the relationships built within Nigeria, the DPR, local players, Moz. I don't think installing another CEO will have any benefit whatsoever. Maybe Nigeria is just a minefield to navigate.
Look back at the progress made. All the technical work is now done and submitted, supposedly approved by the government as well, PSC conditionally extended. Write it down on a bit of paper and see what progress has been made and what is left. We are far ahead of what we're valued at despite the delays. There are some very significant milestones due in the not so distant future. One thing is for sure, if you want to make definite that we don't drill in the summer then Shareholder action to overthrow Arthur is a sure fire way of doing it
Rich/Bob, raising money in the market is nothing new. It's been raised up as some sort of investment killer, it's not. It's not ideal but we are a non-producing (yet) oil and gas company. I think the progress that has been made has been completely forgotten about. Things have taken longer but I do think drilling will happen this year, and once Approvals are in that is a very clear sign we're on the home straight.
Hypothetically, even with say a 50% dilution, we're still only at 8-9M MCap! It's ridiculously small for what we have lined up. Look at other shares, SRSP being a direct comparison - asset in nigeria, yet to drill etc. 20M MCap. Even fully diluted to high heaven we have over a bag to get to where they are. There is plenty of money to make on this investment once we gain some traction, and that starts with Approvals.
Jiving, yes, that is possibly the case as well. I don't know. I do think the project is sound and once Approvals are obtained then I think that is a huge milestone passed.
Rift, a nominated service provider could occur sooner than that. In one of the interviews he mentions that they need to order wellheads, prepare rig, those things can occur ahead of wrapping up the project financing. There are a number of conditions needed for confirming financing - e.g. relevant permits.
To be fair, we were all screaming and shouting for an update, anything, RNS something!
Well, we got one which is quite detailed and sets out exactly where we are, the FDP that was presented to NNPC and supposedly approved, and where we are with financing. Sure, the delay is a blow, but we all demanded to be updated through official channels. It's frustrating but the asset, the development plan, is solid and HUGELY lucrative. A 3 month delay won't change that. We'll get there.
By my calculations, day "zero" for cash is 2nd week of May so another raise in March / April time seems reasonable. Some have jumped to the conclusion that a placing is imminent, having reflected on it, I don't think it is. We have all hounded Arthur for an update, myself included. It is possible that this is just an update in response to that. He's a man that can't win, unfortunately.
A raise is inevitable, sure, but as others have suggested I think it will come after confirmation of ministerial consent and/or SPA name. Some big milestone that is in the pipeline before March
I think the price action has been a knee-jerk reaction to rumours. I'll wait for the bottom to add.
Jiving, I was only giving my view on that statement within the RNS. Your post suggested it was SPA financing by end of Q2, which isn't the case in my opinion. That financing package and associated services will need to be in place well before to drill by mid-year.
No mention of approvals within RNS and as stated by Arthur last week, the program has been approved. That is the big ticket news we've been waiting for. That hasn't changed.
Jiving, that refers to "project financing", it will likely include completing the following conditions from the project financing term sheet:
- An additional US$20 million to US$33 million of funding from ShoreCan;
- US$100 million funding from an offshore oil services group ("Service Provider") to deliver the project;
- A minimum of 6,000 bbl./d production rate averaged over 20 days;
- The execution of a formal definitive binding agreement between the parties
I don't think it is specific to the SPA. All financing wrapped up by end of Q2.
Brady, not sure if you've read the recent email from Art.. see one of my older posts (from Thursday I think). The answer to why he hasn't been promoting or releasing good news in this instance was mentioned. Here's the extract: "Our project has been approved, but due to the elections we have been asked to keep quiet so that those in the country that want to make an issue of it cannot." Further, given the very poor dealings that Essar had previously with Nigeria and the DPR in particular, I can only imagine that Arthur will prioritise keeping them onside and happy. If DPR have stated that they would like things kept quiet for the time being, then I think it will be kept just that until Arthur is given approval to release news or is obligated under market rules.
The DPR guidelines on ministerial consent state the following: "The Assignor shall not advertise, publish or make press release in respect of the assignment without the prior approval of the DPR". Without DPR approval, can COPL press release news?
Maybe not that simple Brady. Not entirely sure the rules on releasing news or whether there is special circumstances in which to withhold releasing news. However, surely conditional extension of the PSC license must fall under the same bracket as these approvals. That occured on 2nd October, yet wasn't officially released until the Q3 results in November.
Bob, I can't see how anyone other than some shareholders who message Art and IR would know about approvals. Certainly not the wider market. And if they do, I'd imagine it's regarded as hearsay (given how many false starts we have had). Personally I don't buy in to the leaky ship theory and believe comms have been pretty tight. Can anyone guess when approvals were actually recieved? As for a placing. Yes, I think one may come in April as discussed in the Prospectus released. But far too early to talk about Arthur releasing news to pump the SP to get it away... No need. I expect news will come thick and fast once we clear from the shroud associated with the elections. I agree with Jay. The SPA is for services and finance. What actually the terms of that finance package includes is yet to be known but could potentially be for the performance bond. Cdn. No word on Moz. I remember discussing this with NoEasy last month, who has a better understanding than I do on it. COPL were expecting to sign the PSC by the year end and obviously haven't. Not sure if that's due to government readiness to do so or not. Also, do I remember correctly that it was mentioned there were other players ready to be involved in the project for cash? Sure I remember that from somewhere.