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Arenāt the prices demand driven?
It must be a valuable contract for Firstgroup to lose over Ā£40m of its market cap (4.8%).
Would probably boost our SP by at least the same amount if it were to be announced.
Ahh but this is the new Mobico Paddyboy. Donāt you think itās a little coincidental to change the company name a day before this news is released?
Tell me if Iām reading too much into this, but the day after we get this statement regarding the name change from IR:
āMobico better represents our multi-modal operations, global reach and FUTURE AMBITIONSā
news is announced that NEXās biggest rival firstgroup loses the TransPennine express contract, with BBC news reporting:
āIt will now be run by the Operator of Last Resort (OLR), which means a business will step in on behalf of the government to take over the management of the service.ā
Who is better placed to take it over than their biggest rival National express/The new ambitious Mobico ?
Weāre right at the bottom of the trading range now with the top being Ā£1.24. I donāt see it breaking out of this range until either we get a bid, inflation/interest rates come down, or we get the Half year results.
Iām adding at 116/117 and selling out at 124 for a 6.8% return. Markets have priced in the worst BoE could throw at us and reinvesting the divvy should push it back up next week.
All my humble opinion, but thatās how Iām playing it for the next few weeks.
I reckon a bid is brewing for National express UK coach division, and obviously the group couldnāt continue to be called National express if it sells off that part of the business.
Canāt see any other logical reason to suddenly change the name of the holding company, yet keep the brand the same.
The reason for the drop today is most likely panic about what the BoE will do tomorrow.
Shorts are b@stars. Shouldnāt be legal imo to sell shares belonging to someone else, without their knowledge, in the hope it will distort the market downwards.
Does this mean a bid is in for the coach division branded āNational expressā?
Why else would the rest of the company have to change its name?
Only the company is changing its legal name. National express will still be the branding in the UK coaches.
With all this undue worry priced into the SP, Iām hoping the CEO makes a statement at the AGM tomorrow to reassure the market and get this back to fair value.
Carnival shares have just shot up 16% just because the CEO confirmed no shares would be issued to pay down debt.
Hopefully the Nex CEO follows suit.
Thanks dugs, Iām beginning to think there may be some legs here.
Does the Ā£69m market cap represent the whole company I.e include the Ā£12m of shares that have just been issued and JDās stake?
The shops look great, but they need to replace those japanese letters with a new emblem that resonates with the UK market.
And lose the outlandish tacky designs in favour of simple classy designs. Iāll believe it when I see it, no use writing out it in the annual report. The financial clock is tickingā¦
I have a small holding in Superdry, but having just looked at its website most of the designs are just naff! New designers are needed ASAP! Theyāre charging a premium price for tacky looking clothes.
All successful, classy brands are simple & inoffensive by design. A nice quality product, simple by design, with a small recognisable emblem is how ALL the successful brands do it. Ralph Lauren- horse, Lacoste- crocodile, Lyle & Scott- eagle. Simply writing āsuperdryā followed by 4 meaningless Japanese symbols on an over the top design is why 95% the products belong the bargain bin at TK max!
When shares are priced as cheap as this, you can normally see why, but I really canāt here. I know a lot of people have mentioned debt, but itās not as issue for me. A lot of companies are carrying a lot more debt, with a lot less profit to service it (e.g IAG, TUI) The debt has actually reduced since the SP was in the Ā£4-5 region. The BoE base rate is irrelevant, what really matters to nex is bond yields, and the 10 year bond yield is currently lower than it ever was pre 2010.
3 months until the half year results. Thereāll be no goodwill write off this time, so the figures will look better on yahoo finance etc. I think people arenāt investing because they are relying on statutory figures presented on yahoo etc instead of reading the annual report.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/05/05/housebuilding-falls-fastest-rate-lockdown/
2 shorts increased on CCL in the past couple of days and the SP went up 5% today (10% up this week). Always nice to see the shorts get burned :)