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On their LinkedIn page mate. Posted today. Probably on their site somewhere too
Don’t know if anyone else has seen but De Nora’s 2018 overview video of all they accomplished, the very first thing is the partnership with AFC on the electrodes. Got to be a positive right that it’s one of the top things they achieved in 2018. Looking for anything positive at the moment. Good luck all for 2019!
Such a shame this share has fallen into the abyss. So much potential. So far down now that a placing must be at around 4p. Means most of us need many multiples of the sp to break even. Which is insane compared to the sp when the Southern deal was announced. I can’t believe they once again put timelines on news by end of the year and haven’t delivered. I understand things slip, but this company nothing happens. We keep seeing news of progress but I’m wondering are we any closer than a year ago? We have nothing to show for it. Lack of news has destroyed us. With a placing at 4p, it’s going to mean we need a huge amount of success to get to 10p. We would need a billion valuation to hit anything near previous big highs. My only last hope is this is all being done so big money friends can buy in cheap and then make hundreds of millions when it rises up, and I can get out at break even.
I’ve actually worked with that division of Toyota in a previous life. Their sole aim is to investigate new tech and advise Toyota if it’s worth taking forward for a pilot. However they speak to hundreds of companies and make many recommendations. It is the type of news AFC used to announce and happy they no longer do (although would like more comms around actual tech performance). My view is a short term lift for the sp, some holders can sell out, cash raise comes within 6-10 weeks and it goes down again. Maybe they’re the tech that gets taken forward, but even that wouldn’t happen for 18 months and Toyota would go through a huge RFP process anyway. Back to AFC - 3 weeks left really for any news. I really hope we get some and not sat here in Jan 2018 waiting again for another year. At least a manufacturing agreement with one partner signed up could provide a catalyst.
Interested to know why you don’t think it’s worth half of my estimate? Surely it’s worth more than what we paid for Sea Lion as the recoverable OIP is higher? And the cost to extract would be cheaper based on location and well depth. My maths was based on Sea Lion giving us 120m barrels and 25% of Zama 600m barrels is 150m barrels. Unless I’ve read the reports incorrectly? More than happy to be given more accurate info though!
I think it’s the only logical option. Even though our 25% of Zama is worth more than our 60% of Sea Lion, we lack being the operator and significant owner. We also can’t afford to buy more of it. Based on the package PMO paid RKH for 60% of Sea Lion, which was roughly a total of $1bn I estimate our 25% of Zama (once fully appraised) is worth around $1.5bn - $2bn (if estimates are at upper end). PMO could then wipe off a $bn in debt and invest the rest in Sea Lion, keeping further capex low. That lowers debt to around 1.5bn, gives a 5 year plan to get easily above 100k barrels a day and another major producing asset in a UK territory. I also strongly believe this is their intention in 2019. If that deal was done, the sp would be about 5x today as the risk on investing in PMO reduces dramatically. I disagree on selling Catcher. Quality assets that are producing are worth more than the cash, as they provide a future for the business. Non producing assets are different. Market value is all based on current performance, current risk and future potential. PMO has the opportunity to bag all 3 with the sale of an appraised Zama. Anyone an idea on timelines for full appraisal from well spudnto results? I estimate 2-3 months (and I think TD said the same) but I’m guessing really
I don’t think it will affect the sp at all really. It’s positive that the deal is still a case of when not if. It’s negative that the deal is coming and not now. These things do take time and it’s the first time for everyone, it is a huge learning curve. To get another quote from Southerns CEO is positive. He’s still wanting it. Good luck all but unfortunately it’s moved to a by the end of the year news timeframe now.
Some people saw this as a negative but I actually think it’s a big positive. The COO is the best placed position in the company to understand the products capabilities, it’s go-to-market potential and project success risk. He will have asked for these shares and I fully back hard working employees getting a taste of the success. What pleases me more is that the shares have been granted now for 3 years time, not when he joined. This shows that after being in the job for a while he believes in the success going forwards. I couldn’t care less if some people make a million while I make a few thousand, would rather make money off their success than us all fail. Southern results have to be round the corner, Gibson will be fully aware of the success here. Good luck everyone, perhaps this is the week? Perhaps......
Wow never expected below 5p. Not much to say, hard to be positive. Perhaps fund raise is at 4p and will be for 50% of the business. Perhaps that’s it? DeNora are buying 50% of AFC at 4p a share, raising around £8m? Don’t know if that would be positive or not now? It is almost ridiculous there hasn’t been comment from the company on the current share price. It has dropped more than half in a few weeks and 75% in a few months. There is obviously some news coming tomorrow/this week. It can’t drop 17% in a day without something leaked.
Unfortunately that’s not how it works. Companies invest millions with an almost guarantee of news in the next 6 months. It happens every time. I feel like I knew this and yet still didn’t sell, so my own fault, I thought the southern news would be too difficult not to RNS before a placing. My view now is honestly get it out the way. The PPS is rock bottom, it’s not going anywhere without this cloud lifted. It would also go back to teens on the back of de Nora investing, but I still don’t think they will.... hold and wait. If we file by 25% but go back to 20p in 3 months I think we’ll all be happier...
Wow 5p. Such a shame for everyone that’s it’s come to this. Market obviously thinks the contract was a load of rubbish and has reacted accordingly with no RNS. They said up to mid October so really we’ve got this week left. Need a 200% rise to hit levels seen only 2 months ago. Hopefully they pull a P.O. out of the bag. I’ve seen companies before go down to record lows before record highs, you think everything is lost and then bam it goes up 5x in 3 days. Fingers crossed. Likeliness is a raise at 5p now if no contract signed. Whatever happened to manufacturing agreement, dunsfold, Covestro, PLACE achievement at 2 years, battery, other opps in pipe. Crazy how much potential is here but PR dial has been set to 0. I miss the QNLs, everybody moaned there wasn’t enough comma but an update every quarter was a blessing people didn’t really understand.
The withholding of non important news is to make the important stuff resonate more, and to stop saying things then not sticking to it (the famous “expect news throughout Q4 and then nothing comes to mind). The strategy will only pay off if they now stick to what they said. So far they gave news on a project and payment date, then RNS’d they’d been paid. They gave a strict timeline of end of sept/ start of Oct for the study results announcement and commercial contract. We have around 2 weeks to see if that was true. If it does happen then the market will start taking AFC seriously again and be able to trust its word. News blackout or not, if we get a commercial deal signed it changes everything (including the PPS). I’m not really bothered about the PPS until this news comes. If it happens amazing, if it doesn’t we’re looking at a much bigger slide. Good luck everyone.
I’d honestly prefer the share price to move up a lot before news hits, yesterday was a good sign of the tide turning. Think it was the biggest buying day since the order. Long may it continue.
Glad to hear beach. We’re all here holding for the same reasons hoping for the same thing. My view is I just have to keep holding through this record low until news is announced. I won’t be doing anything until October.
Don’t worry, I’m not offended you’re right to ask the question. Let me iron this out. The end of my post about them sounding optimistic and on the cusp was completely my opinion, which I stated. They did not guarantee a contract would be signed. They did not specify any details. Honestly I wish they could. I don’t want to mislead anyone, if I was told anything significant and guaranteed I would not post it here and I would have bought more shares. They just merely reiterated what’s in the market. They have been paid money to do a feasibility study with the end result of that if successful is a contract. This is all in the previous RNS,s and the interims, laid out plain and simple. So IF the study is a success then they’ll move to commercial contract stage. This can take a while still, however by standard procedure you would already be at legal stage of a contract this far into a sales cycle. So IF the study is positive I don’t see why we wouldn’t get a contract (my opinion). I hope that clears things up. I readily admit my mistake in posting this info with a mix of fact and opinion, however I thought the way I wrote it made it understandable which was which. In future I’ll keep it to myself. Some people forget that companies are run by people, you can speak to these people. They are not robots working in a secret cave. And a lot of them are very good, hard working people.
I apologise if you misconstrued my post in the wrong way. They don’t guarantee anything. As I said, they can’t go into any details or specifics obviously. They are still doing the scoping study and hope to release the positive news when they stated in their previous RNS (obviously). This isn’t inside information, they’re just reiterating what’s already in the market. The fact it would be the biggest news released in years is pretty self explanatory is it not? I gleaned no inside info from my call, sometimes it’s nice just to be told the same thing again to be put at ease. If people cared that much they would just do a bit more investigation themselves. Don’t worry I won’t post until more info is released, thought the BB was for sharing info and I didn’t want anyone to disagree with Southerhay.
For what it’s worth I also spoke to AFC around the declining sp and was told that the expected signed contract end of sept/ start of Oct is viewed by the business as the biggest news in years. Obviously they can’t divulge anything specific but I also got the feeling they feel they’re on the precipice of success now and are eagerly awaiting to announce this news.
This could be one of those shares that hits its lowest low before its highest high. It could not be. I remember being excited for the final quarter a year ago, and in the same situation now. I keep saying it, big money will be waiting on the side lines. Once we have a confirmed revenue stream the company is a different type of investment. Unfortunately until then we will continue to drift. Maybe we will go from 7p to 70p over a 12 month period. There’s no reason it’s not possible if we get a few commercial deals signed. Our future hinges on Southern, however I remain very optimistic and believe come christimas I’ll be reflecting on August with a smile.
Completely agree. The Southern deal is still being viewed as an MoU until a contract is signed. The last time AFC did an engineering study ahead of a potential deal (Covestro) nothing more was said. So the market is right to be cautious. Hopefully within the next 6 weeks we’ll see some big news and then a positive final quarter to follow. Money moves the market and the big money will come when there’s less risk. Good luck all!
The spread is over 10% now that’s it. Sells are still around 8.7p. It’s the bid price that needs to move up to see a real move on the sp.