Member Info for Prognostic

Been a very long time holder here, but above 950 I'm just sitting here waiting for a repeat of history, something from left field to sink the share price.

I've thought that fair value here was well above £10 for ages, still do, though I'm not sure about all the role offshoring. I'm watching closely to profit again if the market gets spooked by something and this crashes once again

Can you explain to me how RobinHood offering no FX fee and no commission will impact any of:

1. IG leveraged trades on Indices

2. IG Leveraged trades on FX

3. IG Leveraged trades on Commodities

4. IG Leveraged trades on equities

I can't see any impact here, so I'll stick with my holding thanks.

How is this relevant to most of IG's business? The stockbroking revenue IG product is inconsequential compared to the leveraged stuff.

Absolutely agree Matt, share price hasn't made sense here for years. I remain a significant holder and I expect not to trim my holding at all until the SP tops 900. I imagine I'll remain invested here to some degree indefinitely.

I don’t understand why the next move of the share price should determine the effectiveness, or otherwise, of the management and company. The share price may go to 600 in the next two weeks. It could also go to 800. Would we praise June in the case of the rise, and lambast in the case of the fall?

Post-hoc rationalisation is too easy to fall into. TT was overpriced, I won’t argue that. It could still be profitable. I think operating costs are too high. But I also see huge net profits and revenue growth, and my feelings towards the company are not going to change just because the share price rises or falls this week, or next.

If it goes down, I’ll buy more. Nothing spooks me here right now. I may take some profit on the way up (I’m massively exposed here now), but fundamentally I hate judging the boards performance based on stock price, which is always at the whim of investors.

I don’t understand the negativity here. This is an easy buy, and I added significantly to my holding this morning.

Great revenues, great yield, huge growth potential. I don’t have a great opinion of June, but I can’t see that she’s doing a terrible job: the share price is not a reflection of the value here IMO

From the reports "According to Bloomberg, Barclays and Jefferies were the bookrunners".

Didn't Jefferies raise projection here the other day?

I've added at the same level, 784. Nearly had a heart attack when I logged in this morning and saw the share price before I saw the reason

Matt and SirBeany answered better than I could. I don't really understand the merits of asking a question like "would you be happy if the gave away all profits"? Rhetoric?

IG pay circa 30% of net profits as variable remuneration IIRC, the same argument could apply. I want a profitable, growing and sustainable company in which I can remain invested for decades. Social responsibility (some could say ironic, given the business of IG) seems good for long term sustainability, another part of helping it's best people feel like that's a great place to work.

What Matt said.

Can't see any negatives here, completely baffled by the negativity. Aggressive growth, record revenue, diversification of offering, net profits of 50% (approximating). What do they need to do, hold up a pinata and let you whack it? I bought the dip, and added more as it went lower. I'm holding. This is a cash cow.

Totally disagree with the comments of it's "our money". What decisions did you make precisely to grow revenue like this? The board are answerable to shareholders. Get them out if you don't like the decisions, they would need to endorse that.

Hi Tom,

Where else can this yield be achieved for less risk? If I knew I'd shove a lot of money there. As it is I'm here for the long haul, IMO the current share price makes no sense. I'll happily collect all the divs at this rate as I wait for it to rise

"We drop 10% on someone else's revenue figures but then only increase 3% when our revenue figures show that we are ahead of the previous year. I suppose it just gives us another buying opportunity."

Tempted to print this and hang it on my wall, for the next time I make the mistake of thinking the world is rational. Spot on!

I bought more pre-announcement and am happy. IMO fair value here is now well over £10, though I'll take some profit at £9.50 as and when we get there. I didn't expect a div increase for this year final div, and while that is a bit annoying it's still 30p which is a heck of a return. They did say they are re-evaluating divs for the coming year (or that's how I read it), and I'm expecting a return to progressive divs to come within 12 months (and potentially from the next interim div). I don't expect a special div.

Only reason I can see this not heading north now is if sentiment in the rest of the market drags this down, but I won't really care, I'll just top up and take the ludicrous dividend yield. Regulatory threats are getting ever lower due to diversification. Japan is a fantastic hedge.

I'm not informed on TastyTrade, no real opinion, but even in worse case scenarios I see it as a minor drag on an amazing business, and in best case it's revolutionary for the long term. I'm not really factoring it into my opinion.

I suppose I should clarify.

I have 50% (ish) in index trackers, fairly balanced around the world and expected to remain so for the long haul. I don’t believe I can predict the market better than tossing a coin (or that anyone else can, tbh).

IG takes up my entire “risky” holding for a few reasons, but primarily because I worked there for nearly a decade and have a better understanding of the company than of literally any other stock I could invest in. I think it’s a great company. If I didn’t have the “insider knowledge” I’d hold less than half of what I do. I have 10% of “play” money, chasing very high risk/high return assets (currently all invested in Turkey hoping to capitalise on them exiting recession). And then a select few “safe” holdings that I move around based on what I think the market is likely to do (totally contradicting my first point, but who doesn’t love a bit of cognitive dissonance). Right now that means I hold a couple of REITs, hold a bit of cash and hold a couple of gold miners.

In short - half of my money works in parallel with the world markets overall, and half I use at my discretion to see if I can do better. With IG, I think
I can do better :-)

As with most investment decisions, the answer is "it depends". If we could somehow ignore our basic pschology and just look at investments and cash in purely objective terms the question is simply this. I have assets of value X. What % of X should I invest in various places?

The answer for each of us will be different depending on our risk profile. IG is an inherently risky asset (always the threat of regulation0, but is hugely cash generative and has great prospects. Assuming you want some of your assets, choose a %, and then figure out how much of that goes to IG. If you already own that much, don't buy any. If you don't, buy more.

At £9.50 (and even £10) IG has a place in my portfolio. Right now it represents about 20% of my equity portfolio (the bulk of the rest is in Index trackers). I don't intend to let is get above 25%. I really dislike ideas of a share being a hold vs a buy. Those are the same thing depending on what you already have. The question is, should I hold any of this asset, or is my money better off elsewhere. Right now I think my money is working hard for me invested in IG.

So yeah, if I didn't hold, I'd buy.

Couldn't agree more. Regulation continues to be the only significant threat I think, and if any of the growth opportunities turn out to be significantly larger than anticipated (Japan being the one I like most) then the sky's the limit.

I took profits on my short term spread bet (bought IG at CMC at 745, out at 850 this morning), but IG continues to be my single biggest holding by miles and will remain so until it gets close to £10, at which time I'll likely take half out - too much of a good thing, too exposed.

Good point well made.

I do think it’s worth acknowledging the quality of the tech underpinning the company, since that ultimately results in their sustained ability to make money.

Still can’t see anything other than a but here, regardless of latest results: it’s going over £9 soon unless the rest of the market drags it down.

My prognosis - Pretty simple, charting bug... The charting software is far more complex behind the scenes than you'd guess. Some file will have corrupt data in it, it won't be anything more sinister. If it was on a major index/FX pair it would be corrected quick. On a lesser traded stock, it'll get fixed (probably) when it bubbles to the top of someone's priority queue.

RE ISA chart vs leveraged, remember that a spread bet isn't priced the same as the share - IG derive a price and add a spread, so they are separate data and it's possible for one data set to be corrupt and one not. It's also possible for them to be at different levels. Also remember to check your chart settings. IG allow you to choose mid/bid/offer as chart setting, which will alter the price by a few points.

In current climate I can't see anything but upside here. Every step IG have taken so far has been in response to increased demand and volume for the product. You think they increase margin requirements to drum up extra business? Think they prevent you trading a specific share because... honestly the mind boggles.

IG is primarily a risk management machine. They do that better than anyone else in the industry. Reading between the lines, all I can see here is massive volume, loads of new money coming in and the sky as the limit.

I can't assess the acquisition, I know nothing about it. But my money is staying put, and as before, if i gets much lower I'll be adding.

Going to be a bit of a guess, but this will be an artefact of the auction process that closes the day's trading, where an actual sell/buy price isn't really determined. Probably something that just hasn't bubbled to the top of anyone's priority list to sort out in app. Best bet, look at the price 10 seconds before the market closed and consider that as accurate as you're likely to get.