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Also worth bearing in mind that the lowest intra day SP was 232.40 ,so anyone selling below that is selling at a loss - wouldn’t make sense especially for PIs.
I’m also buying small tranches. This is a push down for the shorters before results/ capital markets day/ex dividend - as they know they need to buy back before all this especially not to be lumbered with paying the dividend which they have to do as they do not receive it. Good results ,dividend held will hurt like hell.
It would make perfect sense for Amazon but think the unions would be utterly opposed to it , so remains a long shot. Agree with earlier post about dividend cut being positively received by markets sometimes although I still think they won’t cut it. Results and capital market day critical and of course a Brexit solution which there’s probably more chance of U.K. winning Eurovision.
If the shorters get it wrong and the dividend is held ( more likely than not imo) then they will scramble to buy back otherwise they pay the dividend. Rico is a savvy man as proved at GLS.
I think a lot of the increase in short positions is more Brexit uncertainty related than RMG prospects. Unfortunately until there is an outcome we won’t get any substantial investment from the big funds both U.K. and international. Once we’ve got that and a look into the five year plan,then I reckon it will rerate. If there’s a divi cut then my view is that it will be looked on favourably by the markets,especially long term. But at an annual payout of only £260 mill RMG may well not cut the divi at all. No one should know ( except the accountants) whether the targets have been met or not and if they do then that’s inside info. Unless the £500 mill minimum has been under hit in a big way then imo all is good and I will happily pick up my divis for the foreseeable until SP is where I expect it to be . Akunamatada ( think that’s how you spell it)
I agree to a point Nuri - but apple investors are looking forward - maybe a long time forward,but they expect apple to come up with the next new device or diversity into other markets ( Netflix) type stuff. Markets are still pricing RMG as a failure BUT when it starts putting into place all the improvements which are coming then sentiment will change and that’s coming ..............
Topped up this morning with a small batch - turning point is coming - can feel it.
NigWit - did you not know that the earth was a full 8 degrees Celsius warmer 55 Million years ago ? Was it all those cars,planes etc that caused that then ? Oh and it was virtually ice free - so the ice comes back - yes of course it does - it’s just cycles ,so stop worrying about it.
I don’t often post on this B.B. even though I am invested here. But it seems to me that one or two posters seem to be influenced by the recent climate protestors and a young lady in parliament. Firstly I will state that I’m invested at my own risk and that’s my choice. I don’t particularly agree with the climate argument and even if it turns out to be correct ( which I doubt) oil and it’s many uses will be around for decades to come and CO2 emissions will take decades or even longer to reduce and electric cars ( not hybrids) will not become mainstream for a long long time if ever. There are many reasons for this and the politicians know that ,even our useless ones know that.A Labour/lib dem council gave the go ahead for a coal mine in Cumbria so that tells you everything you need to know about how different opinions on future fuel sources are. IMO hurricane will be bought out at some point in the next year or two.
Agreed - not concerned about ups and downs in the short term. RMG out of favour and shorted atm ,but it will come back in favour and the shorts will close,all in good time. If it’s still at this level or lower by Jan next year then I.ve miscalculated, but at the very least I will be getting dividends. RMG with their cash in bank are effectively debt free and a divi payout at circa £260 million per annum is definitely sustainable but I am also happy for a cut IF it’s reinvested in efficiencies. Rico is a clever man and all will become apparent on capital market day.
I expect to see another short uptick in a few days time which may explain today’s drop. However ,for me it makes no difference what it does as I’m holding until at least January next year and will pick up some nice divis. The test for me comes in May when we get full year results and capital market day. If that’s all good and on target the shorts will probably move on. Oh and of course Brexit .............
Take a look at stokopedia Wednesday)who rate RMG as a value buy - brief summary - quality 93 - value 95 - dividend 9.3% - price to book value 0.59 - rolling price to earnings 9.30 - price to sales 0.24 - 12 month price to free cash flow 7.44 - momentum 19 - in other words a strong value buy. DYOR.
I have no idea whether RMG will cut the dividend or not ,but if they do cut to reinvest then I see that as positive. Bricks and mortar retail is in real trouble ( look at Debenhams) and online ordering and returns ever increasing so they need to take advantage of this massively. Where others see negatives,I see positives ie. Brexit will get sorted eventually as even our inept MPs will exhaust everything they don’t want and then finally what they will accept. RMG is in good health and the charts may or may not be right but I’m bullish long term so not worried short term. Rico will do whatever it takes ,that’s why he’s the boss . Right now for various political and non political reasons the SP is in decline but IMO that won’t last. It’s just the way it is !
Signed - been away and no internet ( self imposed) so good to see a slight recovery ( before today) - shorting back along with Brexit uncertainty continuation. Won’t affect my long term hold but getting very annoying that parliaments indecision is inviting more shorts. Strangely I watched “the big short” while on hol - very revealing how corrupt the whole system was in 2007 - and still is ...............
Freed up some cash and waiting for next week to add some more - not at all worried about SP and just waiting to see how far Brexit woes will take this down,as I think it will. Come certainty recovery will come. As Mr Buffet says - buy on fear and sell on greed. For me ,the media with “crash” - “cliff edge” “disaster” etc etc are all subliminal messages sent out to scare and that provides bargain basement share like this.
Nuri - You say Dpd and UPS are superior to RMG - I strongly disagree and I will tell you why - I have lots of deliveries as part of my business and UPS drop it by the front door whether you are in or not ,with a quick knock at the door and in their van and off before you have chance to open the door - and DPd have “lost” several of my parcels ,once even the driver stole them all and left the company - on top of that dpd customer service is dreadful with a premium £3.60 per min contact line ( the only one they answer) as for RMG - I.ve genuinely never had a problem and because you know the postie he/she will leave it in a safe place if you ask them ( not signed for ones) - so no they are not better - much worse in fact.
There is a delay in reporting so usually a lag before we know. Nuri - shorters make money both ways ( institutional ones ) as they drive the SP down and then go long and drive it back up. It’s a game to them as it’s win win both ways - trouble is ,it’s difficult for us to know their bottom price or top price but newsflow good or bad is what they play on .
StYd - would be very interesting if your theory works out - my guess is that the shorts will have increased again ( after a recent reduction - the shorters are playing the Brexit card to good effect- they may well be under pressure to close next week - IF TM deal goes through. Shorts absolutely love uncertainty- and they know how to apply pressure - I’m still happy to sit and wait as find it difficult to trade shares on a daily/weekly basis time wise and charges wise. But I’m very confident in RMG future so don’t worry about intra day fluctuations.
Relax - it’s all down to Brexit uncertainty (again) - if you follow the day charts you can see that SP rise started on belief of political certainty and ended after that idiot the speaker decided to mess things up again. Now we are back at square one - uncertainty ! A new trend will only occur on this mess being sorted and then results/ 5 year plan. I would buy more but out of funds now so happy to wait till early next year when I’m confident SP will be substantially higher. All imo obviously.
Relax - it’s all down to Brexit uncertainty (again) - if you follow the day charts you can see that SP rise started on belief of political certainty and ended after that idiot the speaker decided to mess things up again. Now we are back at square one - uncertainty ! A new trend will only occur on this mess being sorted and then results/ 5 year plan. I would buy more but out of funds now so happy to wait till early next year when I’m confident SP will be substantially higher. All imo obviously.