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It's clear RKH and Navitas were made privy to this decision prior to this update and have discussed a partnership without HBR. As you say could be a silver lining. We'll see if this decision was already priced in to the SP or not
"This represents both a difficult moment for Rockhopper and a huge opportunity. Whilst we are disappointed that Harbour has decided to not to proceed with Sea Lion, we remain committed to unlocking its development.
"Navitas' recent financing on its Shenandoah project demonstrates that funding remains available to independent E&Ps in the international markets for large-scale offshore oil developments and we very much look forward to working with them to progress Sea Lion."
One thing I am pretty sure of is, if HBR have decided Sea Lion is not for them, they will not just come out and say that.
If they did then they would have to write the asset off which would impact their financials, borrowing ability etc.
They'll probably just say it's one for the future and leave it
https://www.crai.com/engagements/rockhopper-exploration-plc-rockhopper-italia-s-p-a-and-rockhopper-mediterranean-ltd-v-italian-republic-icsid-case-no-arb-17-14/
Not seen $450m mentioned before
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/shares/2019/10/24/shake-your-market-maker/
Good example of the last couiple of days trading
L'ISDS is a tool devised in the late 50s by German banker Hermann Abs and Hartley Shawcross, English politician and Shell consultant. The aim at the time was to protect private companies from any nationalization imposed by the many new independent states that were emerging. Today, however, arbitrations are increasingly attractive to companies that want to protect their assets from those states that are changing the rules on the use of fossil fuels. “The mechanism for Isds provides that only foreign companies, and not the local ones, they can sue the States and, above all, the extremely short period of time compared to ordinary proceedings, for such actions is not provided for the possibility of appeal, which has an outcome arising entirely from the judgment of the arbitrators, chosen by the applicant,” says the lawyer Martinez.