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https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/faron/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?newsid=1581036&cid=2223
...continues...
The problem with Hibiscus trial is, how will any serious medical company with their head straight put any money into Traumakine, when it has already failed twice. The first failure is quite succesfully explained by the company by data mining, but if you really look at the numbers, you gotta start thinking about it. And I do believe the big money does do some serious thinking. Especially when we still don´t know why TK was not used at WHO´s trials. Was it just too late, or did the deciding doctors determine it to be too dangerous (based on widely informed facts).
My pondering and point today revolves around one question: If no big partner shows up soon enough, who will Faron be asking more money from in the next few more months to come? And with what kind of terms and dilution?
And yes, even after selling the major part of my holdings, I´m still quite deep (percent wise of my portfolio) into this one.
Now when the dust has settled a bit and most of the steam has cooled down, there may be a spot for some contemplating. Concerning especially Traumakine.
First of all it may be really good thing for share owners, that WHO´s study got busted before TK was truly tested. I believe that in that study TK was ment to be given to late stage patients and quite a lot of data (also shared here by differnt authors from last spring and early summer) tells, that interferons should be given at an early stage. You see, given too late they can kill you (by making your immune system go bananas and driving your body into a multi-organ failure). Even Faron itself has lately admitted that with interferons ”timing is of essence”.
I see there a fairly good chance that the deciding institutions and doctors did not want to give TK to their patients, because they (obviously) were familiar with the data below…
26th of May (go check out) I wrote here about ”Some Finns doing research”. The interesting point of those discussions was, that TK was not necessary as important for staying alive as Faron has tried to explain through their data-mining (making the assumptions you want to fit with the data received). The discussions point was, that TK and placebo groups without steroids were quite close to equal in the sence of surviving. The most dangerous combo was to be given steroids and TK together.
I now realise, that there is one more point (unfortunately not my idea) about that matter; corticosteroids are usually given to patients, who already have there immune system running wild (and often are in really bad shape). That´s why both steroid-groups had way more deaths in them. Traumakine group being the worse one. Mortality of those two groups:
- TK with corticosteroids 39,7% (31/78)
- Placebo with corticosteroids 27,6 % (27/98)
…and to the present day…
This summer (June 30th) Faron had really good cash position of 11,6M euros. And they have been given grant of 3,3M euros and loan and loan guarantee of total 4,6M euros. Sounds really good, right.
Wrong.
https://www.faron.com/news-events/news-and-press-releases?rnsid=1418346&cid=2223
Faron´s burn rate of money was about 7,5M / 6 months. So the cash position will be around 7,5M (with the grant of 3,3M) in the end of the year. And there will be granted loans of 4,6M on top of that.
In the end of last year Faron had roughly 7M of cash and equivalents and they needed seriously more money already in April.
And.
They are supposed to start Phase 2/3 with Clevegen and Hibiscus with TK asap. These both will require serious money. Whole lotta of it.
If the some new results for Clevegen will look good and are just not another data mining from old results (like the Maija Hollmén´s late Twitter release is starting to turn out to be) there may be a fair chance, that someone will want to partner-up with some serious cash involved.
I so put 95+ % of my HOPE and WISHFUL THINKING and PRAYERS on Cleveg
...and if you are not ready to pay the 45quid annual fee to be a full member just yet, why not check out the broad cast from here to get started, since you are already paying through the shares of the company you already possess:
https://www.faron.com/index.php/investors
BR
Pot_Odds
Here is the link for Maija´s tweet:
https://twitter.com/maijahollmen/status/1327245313384607747
Maybe this is Maija´s final answer to "webby" when they were talking about Clevegen´s "promising" data in August...
On 3rd of October "webby" asked about possible timeframe for the news to come. Maybe it is now?
https://twitter.com/iyoriniygo521/status/1297838433822486530
Will be very intesting to see if there will any movement to the SP since everyone seems to be saying "it´s all about C now"...=).
There is quite interesting discussion going on in one Finnish magazine´s (Kauppalehti) forum.
Could be one explanation, why the SP keeps resiliently so low (short term) and why there have been no press release about a partner for TK (yet at least).
It all comes down to the Faron´s press release from 22th of October 2018.
https://www.faron.com/index.php/news-events/news-and-press-releases?rnsid=1201489&cid=2223
First a couple of quotations:
”Concomitant corticosteroid treatment had a significant impact on mortality in the Traumakine treatment group. Mortality was 10.6% (7/66) for those receiving Traumakine and not on corticosteroids, versus 39.7% (31/78) for those receiving Traumakine and on concomitant corticosteroids. This outcome is highly statistically significant (p<0.0001) and was a similar mortality to the treatment group in the phase I/II study”
”Of note, we also observed that the use of corticosteroids in the placebo group was associated with an increased mortality of 27.6% compared to no use of corticosteroids of 14.8% (p= 0.075). In the group receiving corticosteroids there was a significantly higher APACHE II (acute physiology and chronic health evaluation) score (23.4 versus 20.4, p=0.0007) and SOFA (sequential organ failure assessment) score (10.4 vs 9.5, p=0.0428) but this difference does not, we believe, explain the scale of mortality difference associated with corticosteroid use versus non-use.”
Mortality extremely plain and short:
- TK, no corticosteroids 10,6% (7/66)
- TK with corticosteroids 39,7% (31/78)
- Placebo, no corticosteroids 14,8% (8/54)
- Placebo with corticosteroids 27,6 % (27/98)
Interesting pondering from the Finnish forum:
- It may be that there is no statisticly significant case on TK working here.
- The point is that corticosteroids kill.
- When no corticosteroids given, TK (10,6%) and placebo (14,8%) have not that remarkable difference. Especially when the results in placebo group are not statistically as significant. We don´t know yet how the end result would be if the groups were bigger and more evenly divided in numbers.
- If you were given corticosteroids, you probably would have wanted to be in the placebo group. You would have survived more likely than with TK.
So far we have been told, that TK is saving lives with huge margin. It indeed looks like that when the comparison group is using corticosteroids. But what happens when the comparison group is placebo only? That´s the truly interesting comparison to be made.
Oh, but I believe there is no such comparison in either of the 2 ongoing mega-studies=).
If no cytokine storms or other problems caused by IFN in (late stage Covid-19) patients arise, we just might be good in the short run too. We´ll see soon enough.
BR
Pot
Seems we were pondering the same issue at the same time.
I really thought it would most likely to be a sell, cause the price kept so low...
But like said, some people here say, that the buys / sells do not show right. Of course that´s a bit odd, considering how strict the surveilance of banking, share trading etc. is today. Would really expect some authorities to intervene, if lse was giving false information to inverstors...
But when it comes to (big) money...I guess anything is possible.
BR
Pot
09:17:52 22-May-2020 339.48 GBX 55,000 186,712.90 Off-book
If it was a buy, someone really wants to ride this horse. Hard.
I think it shows as a sell, but some people that are respected (for their knowledge and research) at this forum write not to trust buy / sell signals, cause for some reason they do show wrong.
On the other hand, if it was a buy, I would presume the price to jump up (at least a bit) with that volume.
Anyway good see some liquidity in this one.
BR
Pot
Yes. Now we are getting somewhere.
Good points (and arguments there too) itsallamess and Dracula1.
This is almost like dialogue here now.
You see, the more convinced I see someone (myself or a small group of people) being about some fact, theory, pipe-dream, genious plan or whatnot...the more important I find it to try to find any believable theory, evidence or argument against that particular idea. Just to test the idea properly.
This method is taught to me by at least two quite mentionable gentlemen of the past. Messieurs Darwin and Einstein.
The more they fancied there ideas or theory to be revealed, the more anxious they became to find any possible flaw with their own idea or thinking.
For example I want, I truly want Pharon to be 10-bagger or 50-bagger or even more. I do see a lot of promising things evolving and going on.
But.
What I personally want or believe necessarily has nothing to do with what´s gonna happen.
Even with the fresh money for the next 12months, 2 unbelievable chances to prove Traumakine (which should not be a problem at all, vice versa actually, if there is anything to believe in what the company has let us know during the last 6 - 48 months) + all the other good stuff...nobody is really having any rush to jump in. It´s more like some participants are happy to give their shares away quite easily. And I start to wonder...why?
So, that´s one of the reasons why I try to think also other way around.
I don´t mind buying and selling back and forth depending on the situation. I try to keep pot odds big enough compared to the risk and probability of success. This is impossible, if I read only the news I want to hear or listen to people who only promise me things or results I want. Doing that I would easily go way too deep into one hail-Mary attempt. Which always is revealed being not successfull one afterwards. No matter how big the promises were initially or along the way.
So, please keep on disagreeing with me. With some arguments of your own and even with quotations from trusworthy (and checked) sources, when possible. But even mere disagreeing is greatly appreciated, gives whole lotta fuel into the tank for the little gray sells to consume...
BR
Pot
Should we really?
I think, that the most reliable ja convincing parties to do those things still are...
...Markku (the CEO), the Board of Directors, executive board and the researchers responsible of reporting in all the ongoing studies.
Kinda their job, I quess.
Would you be making your research or due diligence based on some random people´s tweeting?
BR
Pot
ThankU Leiwo, for your (to my mind) very comprehensive answer.
I really do need to chew that up during the holidays and try to find some wisdom from it whether to buy myself back deeper in or just wait for the cards to turn up.
Either way, I do appreciate your efforts to open up your thoughts by honest reflecting. Total respect.
Interesting times ahead.
Bgood all´ya.
BR
Pot
Itsall...I do agree with you, that when it´s about hundreds of millions or even billions, things easily get really shady or even f-ed up.
Problem is, that us mortals usually read or hear about the "truth" years too late.
So it is, like MaryMoo so wisely did put it earlier here...now this is a waiting game.
Let us hope, that all the big pharmas don´t treat Faron as a threat. We probably do need at least one of them sooner or later. And I do really mean need.
GL all!
BR
Pot
Hi,
found this when browsing Harvard Uni´s website.
https://hms.harvard.edu/news/lungs-beyond
I would really like to hear some insights and perspectives about this. Especially from people, who feel they have done in depth research about the company and about the Traumakine.
Since TK is named "Trauma"kine, does that mean, that it has been shown to have significant improvement with patients suffering severe lugn trauma (car accident etc.). I was under impression, that TK should also work with patients with pneumonia caused by flu.
Obviously SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind COVID-19, may be totally different when it comes to infecting compared to "normal" flus. About that I have no idea.
Anyway, very interesting preliminary findings they had. And it is going to be thrilling to see, how TK will do in both big international studies.
Since I´m in deep (even when did half my position today, I´m still in 10% of my total portfolio - way too much, I know) with this one, I hope the article above is no news at all. After all.
BR
Pot
Long has a solid point here about people spending threir time here posing as experts of some sort. The real successful doers (including myself) truly would spend their time doing the thing they are excellent at.
But funny thing to me about the SP today is...Finally when there is some actual and factual good news (company gets 14M just by asking kindly...and being oversubscribed while doing it) the share takes a severe hit down.
Yes, probably some investors are seeing the share being diluted and weighing their analysis solely on that thought.
Anyway since I personally consider today morning´s new info awesome, I did top up at 4,41 euros straight to the opening. Despite the fact that I did some topping up yesterday as well (was alarmed by the silence at the forum...hehe). And if SP is really gonna drop down to 4 euro, probably gonna still have to top up a bit more...Even when that´s gonna take me way over my usual max5% -rule of total bank roll.
If wrong...my miscalculation, my own error, definitely my own stupidity for taking too much of risk.
Most importantly not based on any one else´s talks or day dreaming.
Gosh, I almost got worried that something sinister has happened to the biggest horns and tubas...
Good to hear that I was wrong and everybody still are pictures of health.
Hardly can wait for more of your (dozens of times recycled) info. Having good time reading about your "new findings" and prognostications.
Keep on doing the good hard work in entertaining business=)!
BR
Pot
And Zen, please...
Don´t tell us, that while doing your in depth research you heard a rumor about some drug (Gilead´s Remdesivir) possibly helping some patients with Covid19...and put all your analysis (hope, wishful thinking, greed) on that hear-say alone. Without checking I mean.
Of course you did not.
We know, you are a person of science and hard studying and research.
So, please enlighten us. Tell us your big discovery.
BR
Pot
We can hardly wait for all the goodies you have promised us:
- Your big revelation, you have been raging about
- The BIG news, you promised
- The PR about the new partner(s), you are so sure about
It´s so great to have someone so intellect and at the same time as diligent researcher as you to make sure that us with less knowledge and information have some hope in the universe of investing with so much of deception and lies and total misleading BS into it.
But please...share with us your wisdom. Or at least the great revelation of yours.
BR
Pot