focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
There were 2 routes to go, partner early, unlimited resources to push through trials and poor long term return for shareholders or stay independent, run trials independently, sort out own supply chain etc. Slower trial results, but better long term shareholder value.
He told us this in the share society webinar.
So wait for the trials, 2 in a year is light speed for a company that has 10 people, and there are still only 200m shares, so the value potential remains enormous.
The only chance I see of an early result is if they see such overwhelmingly positive data from the trialists using Synairgen vs those on the placebo , that ethically they need to give those on the placebo Synairgen as well. Otherwise it’s January!
Numis have 140 base case and 290 bull forecast, which in their words is becoming ever more likely because of the new business wins. Making the share a bit of a bargain! They also rate the chances of receiving the payout from GSK at 90%.
Didn’t the U.K. dentists body discover this 3 years ago. Yes they catch coughs and sneezes , but they also give a false sense of protection in supermarkets where nobody bothers with social distancing as masks make them invincible
So if it was just U.K., why would they have a strategic partnership with Parexel in USA? It is exactly as PJMH says, 20 countries, and 20 NHS sites
https://www.parexel.com/news-events-resources/news/current/parexel-biotech-collaborates-synairgen-pivotal-phase-iii-trial-study-inhaled-covid-19-treatment
The CEO said in an interview on proactive investor that the trial would fill up quickly due to high numbers in hospitals, so he could envisage completing a phase 2and 3 in a year - this would be March.
The implication was the trial would be fully subscribed in the first month, so early successful results could lead to emergency sign off.
2 other things to remember
They are producing 100k doses per month from January, so they clearly expect that’s when demand will start
They also launched a Managed Access Programme which gives access to the drug to patients outside the trial who have clinical need
I posed a similar and much less well written question yesterday - only 10% of those who get ill with Covid need to attend hospital. Is there any correlation with the fact the vaccine is 90% efficacious. Could it be the same 10% who are suffering from low interferon or aggressive auto antibodies?
Given that 90% of people with the illness don’t go to hospital anyway, and after WedMe’s excellent post last night, anyone else thinking that the 10% who currently need to go to hospital, and the 10% where the vaccine isn’t effective could be the same group, suffering from interferon deficiency or auto-antibodies. This would actually mean the need is the same as it was before the announcement today.
It’s actually in the Fin Cap report, and the Numis report was re-issued on Monday re-iterating 900 and 5000 after the dilution ( the £87m bookbuild funds the trial and manufacturing)
If you look back through the posts from earlier in the week you’ll see the summary