Member Info for PortfolioPower

Dai,

I've said this for decades that you can't ignore the underlying commodity price action.

When a commodity is flying it'll lift all ships, same situation in reverse.

You may recall that I flagged The junior Gold miners ETF GJGB aka Gdxj Last year on 5th October when the bottom was put in for Gold.

Look at the comments I put up on the GJGB bb around that time, don't need to scroll too far down that first page.

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=GJGB&share=Gdxj-A-Shares

Gold has move from $1800 to $2500 since

Have to say, I'm a bit disappointed with the performance of the junior miners index as I'm only up around 30%+ on what traditionally has been a (riskier) leveraged play.

Still yet to see that leverage element play out.

I could have just bought some more gold !! :-))))

Dai,

I'm not massively close to ALL

From what I gather is that they are waiting on both their ML and off-take agreement and shareholders have been waiting for some time.

Whilst they are probably desperate for news, any good news would probably have a more positive Impact on the share price if that news lands into a rising Lithium market once a floor has been established.

-

Last week ROCK (Rockfire Resources) announced a major resource upgrade of 500%+

That really should have spiked their SP but it barely moved the dial.

Crazy as the resource (if ever put into production) would be worth billions and yet their market cap is just £5m

That's really tough markets for you.

I see the worst kept secret in the markets led GGP shares to suspension today.

Noticed that they called the media article 'a leak'

Not really sure this was a leak as pretty much this was anticipated, but actually, good to see AIM suspend ahead of what will be a massive placing if they can get the acquisition of Telfer agreed.

Dai,

Take a look at the 5 YR chart for lithium carbonate.

A REAL ROLLARCOASTER!!!!

It's completely collapsed in price down about -90% from its peaks just over a year ago due to fears of oversupply.

The lithium price had practically 10 x bagged from its 2020 lows. Hence why all the Li Stocks good & bad had such a great run over this period. (KOD / PREM etc)

However, that led to lots of previously known deposits suddenly get their funding secured to take them into production and the price has since collapsed on fears of an oversupply to the market.

The price is probably now in danger of overshooting to the downside as its come all the way back to levels last seen 3-4 years ago.

For the well managed, well capitalised companies with a very large priven economic Li deposit, this is probably a bit of blip in the road.

For those Li companies who are poorly managed with little direction, no clear strategy and just held onto the coat tails of the Li ramp, this price collapse will see their shareholders take some pain for a while yet imo.

Another tick up.

Looking strong.

Just a lot less liquidity in the more speculative end of the market atm which is most of the small caps that we like to discuss.

Commodities taking a hit doesn't help.

Still need to get past the end of summer malaise and then the run up to the US election should be interesting.

Nothing particularly lighting up the markets atm

More fear than greed going around.

Not a bad time to lay in some warmer climes for a few weeks.

Present window of valuation disconnect providing Multibagger potential from these levels.

Chart firming up nicely here

Ready for the next leg up.

Company Update due next week.

Add in some media coverage and the wider market waking up to value on offer here

Looking at the disclosed shorts 6 month chart, they pretty much have increased every month on DEC since the start of the year.

Just a steady stream of increasing short positions

8.12% of stock held on the short side.

Any views on the latest goings on?

The BB seems a bit of a mess

Appears like some kind of nagging seller happy to exit at any price atm

Any takes other than natural gas price movements / debt and interest rates

Is there something else lurking?

Seem to recall Trek being in here?

WBI own the rights to sell the carbon credits on the land they manage.

Gambon passed their Carbon legislation back in 2021 to enable them to set all this up.

WBI started selling the carbon credits initially for just $10 per tonne on a voluntary basis.

As greater regulation comes in fo drive mandatory net zero targets, the prices for these carbon credits have started to really shoot up recently.

WBI look perfectly placed to benefit from drive towards net zero where carbon credits will have to be used.to offset certain industries that can't get.there by other means,

The sustainability laws are very strict in Gabon so they can only cut down something like 5 trees per hectare to ensure the forestry is managed so its not like the south American rain forests that are completely stripped out, and therefore those forestry holdings cannot be sold as carbon credits. Unlike our managed forest that WBI controls.

If you look at the zoological society of London report into the top 10 tropical timber companies across the world WBI has been in the TOP 10 companies every year for the past few years in terms of its transparency and its sustainability

So they definitely tick the right boxes.

I'm here as their net assets are $152m yet the market cap is circa just £20m

Once they get revenues back to where they were a couple of years ago the SP will be multiples of where it is today with a huge valuation gap to be closed.

The extra catalyst for further SP growth and acceleration will then come in from the carbon credit sales growth.

What will see this fo an off the scale re rate is when the carbon credits market dynamics sees them to selling credits at 10 x / 20 x times the value they have sold historically. Plus as reported, demand is set to significantly outstrip supply at between a 7-1 to 14-1 ratio

Even at the present carbon credit prices there is literally billions and billions of in-country revenues to unlock and WBI have previously spoken about doing a mutually beneficial JV with the government or a large global corporation to make this happen.

Plenty of headroom for substantial SP appreciation from these levels even on a mean reversion basis.

Bolt on the carbon credits as an additional profit centre as demand increases and this starts to look like a very compelling buy from these levels.

GLA.

The international community is gathering for COP29 in 2 months time in Baku to finalise negotiations on Article 6 and accelerate the development of global carbon markets.

Forecasts by various agencies estimate that demand for carbon credits could be between seven and fourteen times greater than supply, depending on the actions airlines take to cut emissions, as well as the development of eligible carbon registries and projects.

> 7 to 14 time more demand than supply?

Expect that kind of demand to sky rocket the price of Carbon Credits.

Only a couple of months to go

Https://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2022/07/24/if-gabons-largest-ever-carbon-credit-sale-works-it-will-be-world-changing/

"If Gabon sold its credits for $25 a ton, it would net $2.25 billion"

"For context, Europe sells carbon credits for $100"

"Jeff (Bezos) is very keen on Gabon,”

Untapped revenue potential for our carbon credits is...."World changing"

@ barnetpeter

Same situation here. Sold these back in 2021, but now looks decent value as a recovery play.

Interested to see what happens once big Mike moves past 30%.. things should get interesting at that stage / formal bid process

Keep an eye on WBI as I expect their SP to be marked up dramatically when their next earnings land.

its net assets alone are more than 500%+ of its present book value and like BOO its another mean reversion/ recovery play but where the underlying assets will support a significant re-rate in SP.

GLA

Latest Financial Info shows Net assets of $152m

Present Market cap of circa £20m is crazy cheap.

Should see a significant re-rate to close the valuation gap to close to fair value.

Strong mean reversion/recovery play opportunity.

Latest Financial Info shows Net assets of $152m

Present Market cap of £18.5m

Losses in the past year are obviously attributed to the fact that they had to shut down operations for a while whilst the military coup was taking place and their former bankers withdrew support in 2023.

All of that is now in the rear view mirror with operations now scaling back up and the Financial backing of the dubai family office which i suspect is in for the long haul as talk of opening up an office in dubai.

If they return to profit this will bag.

Might take a bit of patience but the present market cap valuation is massively out of kilter with the underlying net assets.

When it feels like a difficult buy it usually the best time to buy.

If they didn't have the support of the dubai family office and if the in-country politics hadn't settled down I would still be watching from the sidelines.

Too early to definitely say the business has turned a corner just yet, but the dangers that existed over the past year now appear to have been mitigated and the seller appears to be gone.

Not without risk, but If there was no risk it would back at 4p+

The journey back will probably have some bumps but it's possible so provides an asymmetric risk vs reward opportunity imo.

Throw in the unknown lottery ticket of some giga ramp regarding carbon credits at some point in the future and its one for the list marked 'potential multi-bagger'.

Dai,

I've taken a starter position with a medium term view as my portfolio cash allocation is possibly too high at present so looking for some more exposure to risk assets that are uncorrelated to the other sectors in which I have exposure.